OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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The good news is...
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Models are "smart" enough these days to recognize snowpack, the problem is that they will lay it down where they think it should go and as you say the effects cascade downstream. So for instance if we think we get a correction vector colder, we probably don't want to assume the storm that follows is a good bed where the GFS says it is.
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In some respect it's pointless to sweat the details of model runs this time of year. A good pattern will put snow down somewhere, and that will ultimately change the baroclinicity that affects future events.
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That's kind of how I feel about the resolution upgrades to the models. Man what I would give for a nice smoothed 80 km fronotogensis grid sometimes.
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Q2. But it's an ensemble upgrade. EPS going to 9 km and the extended is now going be a separate run rather than an extension of the medium range model.
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Parallel universe? But we're actually upgrading to 16.3 today. Looks like mainly some snow depth changes and increasing data assimilation (which could be important).
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Somebody was testing products on the system 9/14/2009 but forgot to actually put things into test mode. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=MWWOKX&e=200909141234
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Last time Mount Tolland blew its top?
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I mean, it's going to flip hard Tuesday. But that only gets us to normal instead of +20.
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Game Farm only tickled down to 67 last night. Sultry.
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Even a great day on the Isles of Shoals. 70 out there.
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Not really a debate for here, but it's more so the fact that we've challenged or broken all time November highs in 2020 and then again in 2022. The changing frequency of anomalous heat is more noteworthy than the heat itself (at least around these parts).
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Yeah, topped out at 74 during that run. Our 75+ normal high is essentially the summer solstice through Labor Day.
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3 ply day in Novie!
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PWM 75 so far today, which breaks the all time Novie high. This is fun. Maybe most impressive is that even including the threaded data (which is not official for temps) it's still the highest Novie temp.
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PSM calculating a heat index because the dewpoint is over 60.
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73 this hour at AUG, would appear to tie an all time Novie record.
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Somewhere on Robin Circle a little weenie is tucked under the covers with the AC on full blast.
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I've hard 3 hard frosts so far, but the lawn is still a nice green and growing (slowly like you said). Trying to get it to a reasonable length this year so it isn't matted down under the snow.
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The radar is located in Houlton. A little tip for radar siting is typically if it ends in X, it is collocated with the office. Occasionally there's an outlier, like KDVN is collocated but that is only because the office or radar moved to make that so.
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How do you think he burns the grass?
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Essentially there is an agreement locally that we should at least have a period where 6 inches falls in 12 hours, to really hit the impacts aspect (it always boils down to rates). Because the technical directive would be "events" can be up to 48 hours, which would lump in a ton of upslope events that aren't always warning level impacts.
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It would be fun if at the end of the month we had to fire off 3 warnings in a row just to make quota. But as we well know, it's the cry wolf syndrome. Let's make our warnings more meaningful (but in realty for the vast majority of the board nothing changes).
