OceanStWx

I just planted a Redhaven this past spring, so this is the first winter. I think it's well sited. I don't radiate all that well being on a hillside, it's got a windbreak to the northwest and west from the natural vegetation, and it's right next to a slope on the west side that really prevents severe reflection off the snowpack. I flirt with 6A, so I should be fine, but I don't want to disappoint the kids like when the flew off with our first blueberry crop.

Thought that was Maple Hollow at first.

My gut is that Fri night cold is being overplayed (wind chills will still be brutal, talking strictly air temp). CAA mixing should keep things from challenging records. Sat seems to be trending a bit colder as the core of the cold is delayed by a few hours. MEX is now single digits at PWM for a high, which hasn't been done in 5 years. Then Sat night I think has the potential to be the coldest for some places. High hasn't totally left town yet and that inversion is going to allow temps to drop from a pretty low launching pad as is. Might be -20 at HIE/BML before midnight.

EPS and NAEFS are both outside of their model climate, this is a less than once every 10 years event based on forecasts. 90th-10th range for PWM Sat is 12 to 0. Even a high colder than 10 hasn't happened since 2018. Some wild ranges for Sat night though. 25-35 degree spreads between 90th-10th. I'm leaning 10th though. WAA aloft setting the inversion early and winds calm. Feels like a classic model bust as it moves the air mass out too quickly at the surface.

Not now kids, daddy's busy.

It's also possible somebody accidentally input the PWM total for GYX. At home I had 4 inches of snow on the board near 1 AM, but it had been pouring rain for nearly an hour. So I did alright before the flip. In the end I lost 1 inch in pack by 7 AM (11").

This is when we have to make our hay. That mixing has stalled and we have the lift, so if it's going to tip over warning criteria it will be in the next few hours. It looks like it will be hard to stop the mid level front after 06z.

Well that CC is getting chewed up a bit as it moves into central NH.

The snow starts sooner thank you think, but so does the sleet.

Not a bad eyeball there, current motion has it about 1 hour 45 min. I think a good chunk of our warnings are going tits up.

As the rain/snow line creeps ever close to my backyard, I can hang my hat on the Airport Weather Warning I issued for MHT. At 2342z, I issued one saying that snow will mix with or change to sleet/freezing rain as early as 02z. The 201z SPECI reported PL. Honestly remarkably well modeled and well behaved mixing line.

-PLSN in the 201z SPECI

It's subtle but you can see it on CC. It's about splitting the peninsula in half, pushing through Chebeague now. And on BOX's radar that CC line is steady on the march north. The high is just in a bad position to hold it off. You don't want the ridge axis east of the mountains.

I wouldn't worry about that until 11 pm or midnight. So I think 5-6" is still doable.

Our heaviest precip really shouldn't be until we're approaching midnight, so I'm not too worried about this initial band. If eastern PA isn't lighting up in 2ish hours then we can start sounding the alarms up here.

Guidance is insistent that the slot fills in. You can see moisture peeling back in the more northerly direction on WV (jet is WSW/ENE, but moisture is moving more NE), but that may be too late for many as wetbulbs continue to creep.

Here's a look at the GFS depiction of forcing as precip starts before this event winding down and the next one coming in. I think notably the jet streak is weaker, so you would anticipate the forcing to be weaker as well. But look at the orientation of the jet. It's subtle, but it's there. It's both farther north, and more east/west axis. This should produce a more uniform initial thump of snow than this current event. This suggests to me something a few inches less than what is out there right now, and shifted north closer to the Canadian border.

I mean, yes, but I was also on my couch.

I'm on, but swing shift, so mostly just keeping the forecast in the lane.

I know, but I loathe missing a category of storm. There's a big difference between 8 and 18 inches.

They obviously correctly picked up on the right forcing mechanism. I kind of shook off the HRRR forecasts over double digits for me, but it kept nagging me how consistent the mesos were.

And I'm trying to tease out why we're going to miss low on the forecast, especially with totals in a relatively narrow band that are pushing some real deal snowstorm numbers. This time yesterday was just moving from a 6-8" event to 8-12" for portions of the area, and some are going to end up 15-18".