OceanStWx

Is that different than any other event there?

38 ft peak wave at the Portland LNB. I thought the chain snapped and we lost the buoy for a while after that, though it seems to have been reporting wave heights after it was set adrift.

78 mph at PWM (highest on record), 94 out on Cape Elizabeth, 91 at the Isles of Shoals.

Yeah, it is a problem. Advisories/warnings always trump watches, because they are the "imminent/occurring" threat vs "possible". There might be some flooding, but the snowpack is pretty fresh. It's going to need some time to ripen up before it melts off completely. I suspect the first inch of rain if not 2 will be absorbed by most of the snow across the interior. The ripest snow is over Midcoast Maine, but even that has a ways to go.

We had a watch and the mid shift upgraded some of it to a warning and left the watch for the rest so we can assess on the day shift.

PWM lapse rate was around 6 C/km and the depth was 608 m (both adjusted from the GYX sounding to PWM). Big pressure gradient in that one too. This one is forecast for ~ 20 mb gradient at least too, so there are a lot of hallmarks for a good wind event for some anyway.

Almost certainly. If he's anything like the grid near our office it doesn't take much.

I've been pouring over my local wind research for any insights on this one, and it's interesting to note the depth of the 925 layer at PWM. Current forecasts are ~ 620-630 m. That's not the lowest I've seen, but it's in the bottom half. The lower the height the more likely you find good wind gusts as long as your lapse rates aren't negative.

Locally I think we're rivaling October 2017 for the LLJ, but it's a very different boundary layer environment. Obviously there wasn't any snowcover in 2017, and I think that will reduce the wind threat from max potential for the interior.

I'm honestly more worried about the flooding into Great Bay and places like the Hampton River getting stuck and freezing in place. Even the flip to WSW winds is going to tend to slosh the water into the backside of Route 1.

54 this morning!

I think they have some elevation. I think it's a former employee's parents.

Absolute annihilation at elevation up here. It's basically going to be 20+ just about everywhere above 1000 ft that wasn't shadowed out.

I'm no lip reader, but I think he said "Let's get a fucking bomb. This fucking snow game sucks"

I'm starting to wonder about that vegetable garden of yours.

Yeah I think it's bright banding on the east side of the coastal front, but heavier echoes are pushing west past the front. Might be some meat in there. I had 1.1" when I left the house.

Oh I know it. I don't see enough reasons to take a sledgehammer to the forecast, instead a scalpel. These kinds of a storms (with marginal valley temps) are a PITA to get into the grids. When 1 degree makes the difference between accumulating snow or not, it's hard to find a tool that gives you what you want. It's much more simple to manipulate a coastal front to get the snow totals you want. Looking at the modeled snow depth products, there is not much to write home about outside of the higher terrain, which gives me visions of Scooter standing on the runway.

Ho, ho, ho kids, dad's sleeping at the office for Christmas.

More or less. Most ensemble members are going to be 10:1, because it's easiest. Some may be Kuchera. Rarely are you going to see anything else besides that. Some models have more sophisticated ways, like the HRRR variable density snow depth. Another good trick is to look at model or ensemble snow depth, that often gives you a more accurate representation of what will fall than the clown maps.

Yeah, we're still transitioning from the leftover WAA forcing to more of the left exit of the upper jet forcing. Snow depth forecasts really bump up around 12z for NW CT.

Yeah, that's how I read it too, but it's just not how those maps are generated. They aren't post-processing "if the low was here, it would show this average QPF/snow", it just takes an average of all the members. We're getting pretty close to having means of clusters of members though. Pretty soon you should be able to sort out all the cutters and only see what's left.

Actually a bit sad, casts a shadow over the room.

2-3 beers?

ORE is riding that line around 1400 ft warm layer on the 18z GFS (00z so far looks very similar low level thermal profile). Tough making any calls tonight.