OceanStWx
-
Posts
20,098 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by OceanStWx
-
Pretty sure he also said "could be" not "is".
-
Regarding track forecasts, keep in mind too that with northward moving TCs around FL that an east/west miss of 30 miles can result in landfall 100 miles farther away along the north/south oriented coasts. Again, specifically talking landfall location here, not cone forecasts.
-
It's also a difference between a deterministic forecast (watch/warning) vs. a more probabilistic forecast (past track forecast error/cone).
-
I think overall it was a pretty good forecast, unfortunately most people only focus on the center of the cone and not the edges. I just wish cones could be forward looking, instead of backward looking. If we had a good way to measure or index forecast uncertainty they could probably fairly easily adjusted cone radius to capture 75% or 90% of past errors rather than 67% for example.
-
Overall I have a ton of respect for the NHC crew, my one nitpick revolves around the construction of the cone. It's only designed to capture 2/3 of the average track error over the last 5 years. As forecasts have improved the cone gets smaller. What it doesn't do is factor in situations where there is larger than normal forecast uncertainty. I would love to see a little more of that uncertainty factored into forecasts.
-
Already 1.5 feet above forecast at Charleston.
-
Could be a bit of slower burn like Katrina too. Lack of services may lead to fatalities in the coming days, like how even after the worst had passed the levee failures did the bulk of the damage in New Orleans.
-
The worst of it is likely just beginning for Fort Myers proper and Cape Coral. Winds are finally starting to push water up the river (along with the pressure related surge), and as winds come around to more westerly it should really start to shove water into those canals.
-
What's interesting is that the CDO actually looks like it's improved and become more symmetrical the last couple of hours.
-
It's all fun and games until the machines rise up and start rounding up weenies for detention centers.
-
Yes and no. A human trains the machine learning system for specific forecasts (e.g. severe or flooding). And while the machine learning system uses model input to go through the tree, it also randomizes which variables are being used to get a diverse dataset. And you can continue to train the system over time, so while the model itself may not be explicitly forecasting severe, the system may know that sometimes severe still results.
-
I still need to really read into the under the hood stuff, but theoretically it is machine learning so it should know about all types of set ups.
-
3% chance of seeing a scary looking cloud near EEN.
-
I loved the slap down of Mass when he used 12z 850 mb sounding data instead of 00z to say that we were getting all-time record highs from non-record 850 temps.
-
Mine are actually root sprouts, but I'm realizing that the peach tree was grafted already (Redhaven on Lovell) so I don't want to graft the rootstock.
-
How hard is it to graft? I have a couple suckers growing up around my peach tree and figured rather than pruning them I could try and save them.
-
Kids Christmas presents tossed into Mass Bay.
-
-
Seasons in seasons.
-
Looks like that convection entering SW CT is slowing down. It's still moving for now, but could stall for a bit between DXR and BDR.
-
Trying to figure out what/where that feature might be, the best I can come up with is the 700 mb boundary. RAP forecasts it to sag south like this, but re-establishes itself farther north overnight as WAA really kicks in. It is farther south than even the 00z run had it though.
-
Seems someone forgot to reset the radar this morning, so much of that is from last evening's thunderstorms.
-
There is a nice pool of low level moisture over much of SNE, but the best surface convergence through the low levels is across CT, then arcs northeast along the coastal front/sea breeze. The convergence is also stronger in CT than along the coastal front. It's really slamming in from the south.
-
It's a statistical analysis (which is why they also give 90% confidence interval bounds, i.e. 3.5 to 7 inches for 3 hours). In the most basic terms they take the period of record and look at annual max values at each time interval for a region. From there they use statistics to establish the range for each time interval and location (like I think RI shows no statistical difference in amounts between each location so they are all the same values).
-
Average recurrence interval is 200 years at PVD for 2 hours at 4.4 inches and 3 hour at 5.13 inches. Amounts near that have been observed.
