OceanStWx

It's typically pretty hard to get long term drought conditions around here. Even this one is a short term drought thanks to the last month and a half. Otherwise we were running normal precip. If you are wiping out groundwater for multiple seasons then maybe your trees could get crispy. That's why it's typically surface fuels that burn and not whole forests.

My gut feeling is that WB will be status quo, while WM will see features grow over time (as long as Ryan doesn't leave there too).

Couple runs old, but the 23.00z EPS had a 10th percentile of around a half inch for most of the area (i.e. 90% of the time you're getting at least 0.50").

A sea of

Ekster and I go back and forth as to whether we want the office to have WeatherBell or WeatherModels.

I want to have access to the EPS again, our office account was either hacked or somebody gave out the password to a friend and it was shutdown. Any "big" rain signal this time of year better show up in the ensemble guidance otherwise it is likely just a figment of convective imagination. I know the Euro run from yesterday looked more like a MCS induced rain bullseye over New England than an actual synoptically forced rain event. Could we get a bunch of rain that way, sure, but I'm not betting on it.

0.24 in the last 40.

Losing instability as moisture is cleared out, so toast after that band.

Personally I like that low pressure that goes WNW from DVN to BIS around 7/1.

I've been tracking that for a bunch of years now, I've been pretty consistently averaging about 240 carry. Depending on how damp the course is anywhere from 250-270 on the roll out. The good swings can get me 270 carry and near 300 on the roll out. I would really like to figure out how to do that consistently, because the game does get easier.

That's why I want to run the soil test first, but all signs pointing towards at least slightly alkaline at the moment.

My plan is to do the same this fall. I think I may have to mix some peat in to get the soil away from alkaline. I'll just some soil tests first, but I'm pretty sure that's a big issue for me.

Record May in fact. 95.8" 6th snowiest month up there period.

Sounds like some serious neglect on the part of dam owners. Were told repeatedly to increase the capacity of the spillways and never did it/slash tied it up in courts. I don't know their exact probable max flood threshold, but they are usually a 1/1,000,000 of occurrence in a given year (very conservative for a reason, since the high risk dams can kill people if they give way). They argued that the chances of that happening in the next 5-10 years was 1/5,000,000-10,000,000 (for some reason adding the yearly occurrence together). The true chance of a PMF happening in the next 5-10 years is actually 1 - (the chance that the PMF doesn't occur in 5 or 10 years in a row). They were also cited for not being able to even contain a half PMF. So the true probability is more like 1/50,000 instead. What's a 100-fold error between friends?

First round in on Saturday at Belgrade Lakes. Normally my crap posture means I fat my shots early in the year, but my big miss was topped shots all day. 52 on the front then resorted to G&Ts and managed 3 pars on the back, actually 3 of the last 5.

It was tough timing because the line was through by the time ALY would launch a balloon, and GYX was firmly in the marine influence by then. But model forecasts across southern NH were like 45 knots 0-3 km shear. Which gives you a lot of wiggle room for mesovortices.

Honestly the models handled it pretty well. RAP forecast soundings have MVL pounding snow right now. Pretty isothermal up to 2500-3000 ft, but cools that layer quickly from 23 to 00z on the forecast soundings. So you drop a bunch of aggregates into the near surface isothermal zone and you cool from melting down to freezing. Great stuff.

Ekster and I getting ready to hammer latent cooling in late season events at our office workshop Wednesday.

You can actually see the bright banding disappear as the column cools. The simulated reflectivity since yesterday was actually showing this transitioning to a small CCB as it departs tonight.

Poor Wiz, his marginal risk got hijacked by snow...

My fingers are crossed for you, that would be an awesome spot for several offices!

I want it closer to EEN or LEB to be honest.

Can't buy that when it counts...

We do. Honestly if it weren't for the neighbors who dropped sod across the street, I might have salvaged the best lawn on the street so far. We were all in pretty rough shape year one though.