WNC_Fort

I found our moisture! Ignore the fact that it's accompanied with 60 degree temps....in January

GFS looks a little better for this weekend... Still light precip overall but doesn't struggle to make it over the Apps as much. Not great, but I'll take anything at this point. I just can't think of many winter where ETN scored and WNC didn't..

It's funny because I've got a good view of Craggy Gardens and the Black Mountains from my place. They've been visible all day until about 10 mins ago. Looks like a few snowfakes just started flying up there. Mt Michell webcam:

Dry as a bone up here in the foothills of Asheville. I've bounced back and forth between 39 and 42 all morning.

People thought wncsnow was just being pessimistic when, in reality, he was the one that has been the most realistic about this event (and the entire winter). A few weeks ago, he and I were posting about our concerns of the moisture not being here when the cold arrived. We got laughed off. We're in a pattern here east of the Apps where you either get warm & moisture or cold & dry. It sucks but it's where we are. I also had a chance to look on the longer ranger models. I don't see anything promising until mid-Feb at this point.

I've been a bit booked up this last week. What's the take for February looking like as of late? I see the rest of January is a punt. That leaves us with essentially 28 realistic days to score. And heck, I'm not even convinved February is a good winter month for us anymore.

I appreciate the realness @wncsnow! Just know that I'll always consider Marion/McDowell County part of the mountains. You don't have to be on the TN border or above 4000' ft to count. I'm still midly interested in the weekend event. I've accepted this one was unlikely to amount to much...

According to my tempest, It’s 40 for me in Asheville

Winner! It might not be 6” but we don’t struggle with rain in the long run according to the GFS!

It’s hard not to feel completed defeated by this upcoming week. Plenty of cold. There was moisture around but somehow we find a way not to combine the two. Then a warmup is coming

Heck, you know it’s bad when they don’t even want Asheville folks posting in the mountain thread. Personally rooting for a foothills crusher this Feb.

That system on the 19th-20th is close...Getting squashed right now. But, that one really intrigues me

You know. It would be funny for the Piedmont to get a late blooming storm while Asheville gets blanked. Next week's cold shot looks fun and I'm holding out hope for some flakes!

We sound like a broken record at this point. I mean just go back and look at some of our posts. We were worried it would transition to cold/dry..6Z GFS is exactly that followed by a warm up and rain. The tap just turns off when its cold. Happy to see that some folks were able to score last night! It's just hard for those of us in the slightly less favored mountain areas.

I was going to say...when was the last "Fab Feb"? 2014? Don't even get me started on the "it can still snow in March". I'm sorry but I think it's fair for folks to be discouraged by transient cold and consistent rain. Glad the drought is over but man, we all need a snow event to track. Once we get to Jan 15th, it feels like we're halfway through winter. Edit: This is my last negative post for a while. I'm usually an optimist...except for winter weather.

Latest GFS is a perfect example of what @wncsnowand I have warned about/feared. Sure, we get the cold and then suddenly the moisture disappears. Joy

Haha. You and I have seen this play out too many times to count. It's just another winter of cold and dry, followed by intense rain and warm. It's a dud.

6Z GFS was a little closer for next week. Cold is muted and longer term looks warm

Looks perfect for peak-snow season in January

Gets plenty cold after next week's rainstorm on the GFS...but what about the next system? Another cutter? Edit: Lol. System ends up in the Gulf. But, SER flexes it's muscles and despite a Miller-A track, we still just rain. I'm just about over it.

What a Shocker. Cutters and warm followed by cold and dry. On repeat.

That storm after the MLK holiday on the GFS seems intriguing as well…

No fantasy storms on this run of the GFS but I still see positive steps.

I think I’ve been “burned” by the models over ice storms a dozen times over the last ten years. I’m just always going to assume they’re overdoing it. Something’s changed to where ice just doesn’t happen here anymore

Jumped back up to 39 here. Hope @wncsnowand the other folks back home in McDowell get a little snow to stick before the freezing rain.