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Everything posted by Sn0waddict
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I thinking 8-14 will do it. Anything less would be a disappointment after following this for a week honestly, but after last year I suppose I would have to just be happy with what I got. Mentioned it in the nyc obs thread but I can see the ground level cold over performing at least. The dew point is still 3F!
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Ya I could see that if precip lightens up for an hour or two, no fuss there. Only would be annoyed if we missed out on the heavier stuff due to sleet, which I doubt at this point.
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Nice was born and raised in Milford. Can be a frustrating spot for snow at time but we might have just enough cold air to squeak this one out. Just gotta hope the mid levels don’t torch at all. Good luck!
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Ya I mentioned that earlier. 27/3 here. Ground level temps should stay below freezing IMO.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Sn0waddict replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Man it’s got that snow feel out there. 26F with a dew point of 3.- 1,011 replies
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When I hear of a sleet storm that’s the first thing I think of.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Hot daymn cmon IBM let this be your shining moment. -
Likewise, the plumes are always just fun to look at though . For example the mean in Scranton is 22 inches including one model that gives them 15 inches in three hours! Best here is 8 inches in 3 hours, which would still be incredible lol
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For what it’s worth the HRRR seems pretty cold, holding off most of the sleet for NYC until 07z
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Nam looks noticeably warmer with 850s at the onset of the storm. Hopefully just a fluke.
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That track looks good to me. Similar to the NAM.
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It practically touches Long Beach island as well. Most NW model I have seen. Also has a wild coastal front.
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CMC not surprisingly looks similar to the RGEM, they are the most NW of any the models at the moment.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Not Mt Tolland approved. -
Active mid December with multiple event potential
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
It’s in the same spot, and same strength really. It’s drops over a foot in western ct. Cant say I see any issues. -
I’m sure it’s a terrible model but the 0z WRF-NMM is what this board should be rooting for.
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3k is better too, which has been the warmest model to date. A few hours of sleet but it then crashes at hr 33
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Wow much better for coastal ct and Hudson valley. Maybe an hour of sleet at the most and no dry slot.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
A bad weather model. -
Quite the dry slot on the HERPES. Sheesh
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1 mb stronger and a hair East. Looks pretty identical to 12z.
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