Ralph Wiggum

I understand what you are saying, but certain model biases allows those models to go a run/streak if the patterns and similar biases set in for a period. We have seen countless times where even AFDs have mentioned such and such model verification scores have been high recently so more weight is being given to said model. Maybe my "hot hand" is sort of vague or broadbrushing or lacked the "verification scores" terminology, but there is substance behind what I said. Now have I looked at a verification chart in the past 4 weeks? I have not, so maybe I'm just bias to this Friday system where the GFS led the way.

Go with the hot hand and least snowiest model output. I dont want this to fail but if it is going to, let's get it out of the way now please.

It can snow in the upper 40s on the Cali coast but we excel at 33 and rain. Fuck this clime. We need a storm, STAT!

That's a drunk mangled Nittany Lion paw bro. We are!

Except for this Friday's system where it led the way. I dunno man, as a gambler I'm kind of prone to go with the hot hand until it changes.

That fucking SER is becoming like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. At this rate it will just become a permanent feature.

What am I missing here? The trend has been to bury that energy in the W and pump the SER, at least based on the trends you posted. Trying to link the stout NAO and building ridge. And yes, that is a ridge please stop saying it is just higher heights between longwaves. It's essentially the same thing?

Not a mean

Lies

ALEET ALEET??

Cmon, it's obviously the trendy thing to do.

King GFS still has the Ides of March storm. We got this.

So I jump in for this window and guidance taunts me with this avocado crap?! The atmosphere hates me I'm taking this one personal.

Sswe finally doing it's thing.

Have been cynical wrt LR looks and rightfully so given what we have endured this season wrt LR guidance. However, I am beginning to like the look on the GEFS as we head to day 10-12. I know. Fantasy range. But the look is improving this time and moving up. -NAO signal, 50/50, trof South of AK, PNA ridge developing in response trying to even bridge with the NAO. This could work for March:

18z gefs trends from last 4 runs (day 10 to day 9). More of the usual...building SER as lead time diminishes, linkup attempt between NAO (which is displacing farther S last 4 runs) and new SER signal. There is separation out between the Hawaiian trof and the NW Coast trof which @CAPE noted earlier was a good thing out in the PAC. But it is not encouraging imho to see the repeated seasonal Atlantic side trends on the ens mean as we get under 10 days. Sigh.

March or April? Asking for a friend.

Read through your journals. I'm sure there is something in there about the trof developing S of Alaska that somehow fucks us.

I'm just playing devils advocate. Seeing too much KU and HECS talk. OK, I agree, synoptically it looks pretty darn good. But I'm tempering expectations. I'll ease off the cynicism. Let this one happen.

Isn't the NAO retrograding too quickly tho? I mean I know we need it to relax but this looks like it takes a one way ticket to the Aleutian ridge bridge no? Eta: taking the same steps other windows have. Keep moving the NAO west and pumping the SER and, well, you know where any storm is headed.

Ides of March Bombastic Fantastic pre St Patty's Storm of the Decade!

Is this like follow the yellow brick road? Snowing in poppy fields would be a dreamy way to round out the winter....I'm all in.

NAO continues retrograding farther W and the GOM ridge is becoming more stout and moving closer to the SER position. Two ways to see this map.

The full lat ridge NAO/GOM link that everyone says will get beat down is preventing the pattern evolution. In order to get this to work we need the energy to push thru. All season 10 day props showed hope with mirages of sw's surviving their way thru said ridging. We shall see....staying cautiously cautious for now