Ralph Wiggum

Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"? I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore? I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something. That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening.

Here's @CAPE's followup wave showing up overnight Saturday. It's the NAVGEM tho, but at least one of the models picked up on it.

Not sure it matters but a few times this season we've counted on a 50/50 look at range to help compress the flow and anchor in some relative cold and it either came in much weaker and sheared at game time or zipped on thru the 50/50 domain. So that feature has in fact been a thorn in our side already. Again, not sure what we can glean from past events, just noting it.

Yer gonna need a bigger boat

"Roll away the dew" - Jerry Garcia

Yep, very reminiscent of a recent system, oh, say 3 days ago.

Dumb ways to fail.

Gonna take some work, but I think if we persevere we can all do this

GEFS took a move towards more coastal lows. Not quite where the eps is but a notable increase from 0z.

0z Euro is a MECS for 16th. EPS was also honking for the same time. CMC was close but couldn't figure out which energy to focus on. 6z GFS was a SECS. Euro had the cities on the line. Usual caveats apply at this range...7 days out. Time to track

Not sure WW even realizes it but that EPS 6hr precip and 850 map from 0z was absolutely screaming for a smoothed over blend of indiv ens. Talk about a jump. 6z gfs took a big step as well. Awaiting the gefs. Time to track...again. let's ride.

We shit the blinds for 7 days as we reload and regroup. Plenty of time still and no shortage of chances.

Imma have to try that one. My one and only experience with Flying Dog was Raging Bitch. Way too aggressive flavoring for me and I'm generally a fan of all thing Belgian. But this one was not my cup of tea.

Wasn't a bad run. I don't think anyone is expecting a huge hit or this to trend into anything too intense with the 15th-16th thing. Maybe I'm wrong but I think the upside is somewhat capped with this one. However, I'm certain many would be OK with a ground whitener followed by BN cold.

-30s leeside of the Rockies in the central US. Damn.

Daffodils are really coming along nicely. Should have buds by early Feb at this rate

Brooklyn Brewery Black Chocolate Russian Imperial Stout

If there is any concern to that look, it would possibly be cold/dry. But I dont mind this tbh...a little sacrifice for long term chance(s) maybe as I could see having deep cold entrenched/established and the pattern relaxing with a decent storm threat at some point. This is pure conjecture at this point but worth noting that aspect.

Is that a +PNA? That is almost near the textbook mean longitudinal axis point around Idaho. Yeah, potentials lie ahead.

No shortage of activity at the very least. And while most here are interested in our own yards, the next 2 systems in the upper midwest will be amazing to see unfold from a sheer meteo standpoint. Some spots will get to witness true blizzard conditions within days of each other. So while we may not be tracking anything discrete here attm we can try and enjoy watching what this Nino is throwing at pasts of the US. That should give hope moving forward.

Can't even hit 60F this winter to setup a Wiggum Rule event. What gives?

Those bombs should help the East moving forward at least for a bit. Need a strong catalyst to beat down the persistent Atlantic crud. These should theoretically do the trick.

The NAO ridge definitely undergoes some pulses the next few weeks as @CAPE noted following this window as the TPV takes up residence. I think it was @Bob Chill who alluded to this pulsing aspect headed into the 2nd half. But the trend to strengthen the block just prior to the 16th before waning is a welcome trend.

Wifey suggests taking my winnings from the last 5 Eagles games and just watch this one. She's usually pretty good at feeling how these play out. Says it's going to be fugly. It looks like a rainer to boot? Tampa stadium doesn't have a roof, correct?