Ralph Wiggum

900-950mb is torched between 50-56hrs. All the way to N Bucks/Montco. Hope it's wrong and mesos not honing in on that sneaky warm layer.

Latest NAM is more sleet than anything in extreme SE PA Tuesday am. Gotta love it. Just can't get a clean event it seems.

Good. Kill the threat before we get sucked in. I'm already onto the Feb 5 event.

I too am on board with you. This is our twisted version of Normandy Beach....we all see what is staring us in the face. Vomit and rally. LFG!

We are finding ways to fail this year that I never in my life thought possible!!

Don't count your chips just yet. Things are falling apart this week then the week you targeted looks well AN with a pattern relax. I mean, anyone can say they think the 3rd week of July will be hot with thunderstorms and probably be close too. Not a personal knock but you can't cherry pick a squall line to try and justify it as a clipper a week early. Not really the way it works. But let's see how the week plays out. Any snow, we take. I don't care who called it or how we get there tbh.

If we get 2 snowstorms of 20" each in the first half of March, is that a success? Dead ass serious question.

It can always get worse. Always.

And thats the thing, the ens have been honestly pretty good at seeing the overall longwave setup at range. And we have had some decent looks. My frustration last week was that we just aren't cashing in when we get the better setups. And that is to be expected....to a degree. But, throw enough chances and eventually it will happen. This is why wall to wall winter from Dec 1-mid March is a myth....not the norm.

That's kinda my wag too tho I'm hedging lower c-2" on next event for now until I see evidence to Increase.

In all seriousness tho, this seem to be progressing as a few have mentioned. Best chances of the season thus far middle January thru around the 21st then a relax thru the end of month with a reload into Feb with our chance for a bigger storm. The hope was we would cash in on the chances this week and some spots certainly will do that before the transition. Ens means are clear with the relax after the 21st and towards the end of the run (s) you can see the reload back to workable happening. GEPS has the best reflection of this. So, while we were/are hoping for something bigger this week after stepping back from the 16-17 potential, we do have a workable (not ideal) setup.late week before we relax. Ens means have been pretty decent with the large scale features in the LR, so we should see more chances again. We just gotta hang in. At least we aren't shitting the blinds right?

That's a clear path to victory...we do Norlun troughs like bosses. /s

Probably the biggest event of the next 10 days. Ens took a dump. Epic pattern got lost at sea....again.

Wiggum Rule in effect. Temp touched 60F. Some sort of flakes within next 5 days. We take?

Sad part is, the forecast 'cold stretch' is run of the mill cold now and moves out as fast as it moves in.

It's fine....everything is fine. The upcoming pattern is the KU look....I read it here. If not that one then the one after is it. The cutters will pave the wave....pattern progression. Patience. Buckle up. Fuck, give me more of those good meds ffs...

Do you think? They are in complete dissaray. AJ Brown deleted everything Eagles from his IG yesterday. Looks like he wants off the team now. What makes you think they are going to show and compete? Are they just playing opossum??

Biggest event of the season for mby?

Cold snap fizzled too. Avg temps to slightly below. Winter blows anymore. Need to find a Flux capacitor asap.

How are we looking wrt the textbook KU upper air pattern the ens means had for late week? Still showing the same thing?

If that threat period fails and nothing discrete is showing in the MR at that time and the LR is in a 'relax'? Well,...it might be time.

Would a radio show reverse jinx it? Is that possible? We should be open to anything and everything at this juncture.

Who had 'squall line as the top snow event for the week'? Wasn't on my bingo card.