Ralph Wiggum

Nina meets Nino. Active NS and juicy STJ, little reflection of a SER to keep things from sliding:

Miller B bomb just misses right after NY but the followup system around the 6th just misses a full phase beast. Going to be fun tracking soon!

Not a peep on the 12z gfs? Sheesh. Miller B bomb just misses right after NY but the followup system around the 6th just misses a full phase beast. Going to be fun tracking soon!

3.2" here in Ivyland

Before and after....poor pumpkin:

Only a patchy coating on roads here but we did in fact just have a plow come thru. Thought maybe just a salt truck but nope...full plow engaged. Looks like it is just starting to lighten up. Will take a measurement on the snow board later but definitely added at least another .25" since last measurement when i swept off the deck.

Latest measurement was 2.5" and still snowing moderately. Really hasn't slowed past 3 hours where this band has continued to backbuild over E Montco and Central Bucks. Temps hovering around freezing.

Just broke the 2" mark in Ivyland...snow board is at 2.1" and still snowing. Euro did pretty good here.

Just took a walk out to the snow board in the field for an 'official' measurement and we're at 1.75" and still snowing moderately. Best rates of the day 31F.

Moderate snow now with a nice band setup over us. Just hit 1"...my wife is thrilled. There's an inch of snow outside also. 32F

Nearing .75" with light snow still falling and accumulating. Dipped to freezing. Expectations surpassed on this one...these inverted trof situations don't generally work out as modeled. We take.

Heaviest band of the day setting up over us in Ivyland / Central Bucks. Closing in on .3"

Please don't poke the bear. He got enough heat from us last year, he's aware. Full redemption this year, positive vibes.

Steady light snow continuing in Ivyland. First accums of the year beginning. 33F

That's a much better look with the epo bulging AND some Atlantic side help. Been burned so many times LR last decade so nice to see but not dusting off the snowblower..yet

Snowing lightly now in Ivyland. Very scenic! 34F

A true December to remember. Feels like Decembers of old....gray, wet, cold, flakes here and there.

Flurries in Ivyland. 35F.

That's certainly a good take and look. I would rather have this than any classic weak Nina pattern. A few ways we could muck this up but one recent way we've seen that runs the risk with the jet retraction and EPO ridging and split flow out west is the shred factory when the NS has its way with any STJ impulse. To counter this we are going to need some blocking or something to slow things down on the Atlantic side and allow for sharper trof/digging with our NS. I think we do achieve that but nothing anchored in for weeks. My wag has always been a one-off larger January storm. This is against most of thinking from our regular posters here...but Im still holding to this. Whether or not we pull a 2016 one and done not sure. Hopefully we sustain for a bit after. Baby steps tho...these maps are a nice signal.

It is funny in a way that I toss junk out in my yard and those bucks are a common site tbh. Yet don the camo, put the cover spray on, use a call, and sit in a blind for 12 hrs and see nothing. My neighbor who avidly hunts is always cursing under his breath when he sees them in the yard lol.

Epic post PSU.

That's it. Pretty sure that was the year of the epic unicorn LR ensemble pattern as well. That ridging in central Canada was forecast to progress into the NAO region across the ensembles and become an epic block....our savior. Iirc it ended up being too much of a good thing?

Honestly we all know the NAM is overdone. Up this way I expect a few periods of mood flakes/flurries at best. Maybe we can verify an actual "snow shower". But this might be overly optimistic.

Rule number one we hug the snowiest and most obscure model.

CMC has ging on by a thread for Christmas Eve/Day but continues to slow precip advance so subsequently it allows the BL to warm enough and the snow chart keeps ticking N. But let's not get ahead of ourselves....NAM says we whiten things Friday possibly enough to last thru the holiday