Ralph Wiggum

All meso guidance on board with some convective snow showers/squalls scattered throughout the region later tomorrow afternoon/evening:

That's a new England look mid season, let alone down here for us in late March of a waning Nino. I'm with PSU, show a couple GFS/Euro runs in a row of snow and I'll bite. This look won't do it for us. Adjust that trof about 250 miles further S.

Watch us get blitzed next season in a twisted turn of expectations.

Mezcal was my poison back in my 20s. I always fought for the worm in the bottle. Always seemed to contain a hallucinogenic component to it.

Taking up drinking for lent. On a tequila kick lately. Sipping on the Casamigos attm...not horrible, but there are better if you are willing to spend the $

Still there....dated 3/2/24

Just saw on my Google New feed headline that Philadelphia is bracing for a major late season snowfall next weekend. Can one of you fine folks please clue me in on what I might have missed? Thank you.

1% bro.....one. percent.

Always been a believer that the earth has a way of balancing itself out naturally. Sometimes gradually over time...years, decades, centuries, eras....other times thru extreme sudden events. PSU had been poking tongue in cheek about underwater volcanoes. Ironically,an article surfaced in my news feed the other morning about Yellowstone. I wonder if something like that supervolcano (even tho some some scientists dispute that it would ever erupt) would spark a sudden reversal wrt to the elephant? I mean, we've all read the articles about how warming supposedly has created more extremes and shifts in weather. Will something this extreme be the balancing act someday? They don't know how long effects would last but scientists seem convinced it would lead to a nuclear winter scenario. I dunno, just throwing my thoughts/$.02 in the pot if this hasn't been offered as a scenario already. The earth balances itself out over time in mysterious ways.

Winter theme items taken down around the house today, St Patrick's flag flying now in lieu of the "Let it Snow" flag of the last 3 months. And right on script, the first Daffodil bud of the season popped as well.

Beautiful coastal on the euro for next weekend. Seems we do this every March..."where was this look 3 weeks ago?".

Toss the MJO in the dumpster as well. Didn't really reflect historically what we would expect given the phase. Another overrated/understudied tool wrt east coast winter weather.

Minty

Where was this look 3 weeks ago? Nevermind...perfect track rainstorm probably.

Best digital tease of the season. 1% chance I give this one

If ppl weren't dangling the 1958 analog all season he would have thrown in the towel in early January as per usual.

This would have worked out 66 years ago.

I love Mac and cheese personally and would eat it 7 days a week if possible. Not greedy wrt what's being served and never got angry at others eating their feast. Glad you enjoyed!

I posted a discussion prior to the epic collapse of how I thought the weeklies were deriving at those epic looks. Then I reposted again after they collapsed. They were based on algorithms programmed into guidance based on analogs from seasons past which matched things as pdo, qdo, enso as well as current data when models/weeklies were ran. With that said, if we had similar conditions to say late Jan 2010 when those weeklies were ran, a heavily weighted analog was used thus showing us something which looked like Feb 2010. Honestly it wasn't surprising things flipped but I played along for a bit with the positive vibes gang because I actually enjoy posting here. Just have to walk on eggshells at times.

We have El Popo erupting in Mexico hitting 2 miles into the atmosphere. Between this and all the recent SWEs I'm sure we can muster a late season miracle. LFG!

The warm days, the cloudy days, and the abundant rains are all trademarks of a Nino fwiw. Kind of surprised how this winter played out here. What surprised me most is the lack of Southern snows along NC/SC a few times during a Nino. Didn't have that this year. I wonder if that feature has shifted N over the years to our region? We usually don't see the week-long stretches of winter but rather one big one in Feb or March. Interesting that Nova Scotia got an anomalous 5' + snowstorm a few weeks back. Hmm, maybe everything did shift N this year. Wonder if that's a sign of the times/change?

In all honesty, we had 2 decent 10-day stretches of winter....this winter. Based on future guidance, I will assume we are pretty much done for all intents and purposes. With that said, I give this winter a C/C+ grade. Like I told my son last year when finishing up 8th grade tho...C's are meh, you can do better. This year as a freshman in HS he is rocking straight A's and some advanced/honors studies. We need winter to respond likewise. We can do better.

Bring it. I want 90s by early April.

March is the new April?

Why wouldn't we be here? I bet next winter tosses a surprise or two at us. It's akin to Vegas sports book odds....when all the money is on one side (in this case alot of pros throwing next winter in the garbage saying not even a remote shot) that's when the upsets tend to happen. Overall probably a crud pattern but I'm sure we sneak a handful of trackable events in there.