Ralph Wiggum

17 minutes ago, Newman said:

The GFS sucks I know that and it's been flipping every run, but what it showed at 6z is my biggest concern. The energy up in SE Canada is suppressing the flow enough to not allow the storm to gain latitude and gives DC a hecs. 

Not to mention the strong high pressure system north of the storm. This MSLP look is classic for an east coast snow storm. But is the press going to be too much?

Now the models are going to be flipping every run up until we're 2 days out. But the suppression risk is REAL. One thing I hate sometimes when we're tracking is the ignorance to possible setbacks. I understand why we try to ignore the shortfalls in a storm we're tracking, but it can get us in trouble when we assume a storm "must" trend north but in reality the pattern doesn't fit it. Right now our biggest issue, verbatim, would be suppression. From now up until about 84 hours, we need to look at why the storm WON'T be affected, per say, by the suppression. However, just like the Jan 16 storm, sometimes even at 84 hours the models will be clueless. But the synoptic pattern set forth almost guaranteed that the storm (Jan 16) wouldn't be as south as modeled. I know that I'm going to be on the lookout for trends in the high pressure in the great lakes, the 50/50 low, and the possible nuisance energy in SE Canada suppressing the flow. Remember trends can go BOTH ways, good and bad for a storm threat. Don't get me wrong, the overall hemispheric pattern suggests a significant east coast storm. What I'm suggesting is why does it have to be a Philly to NYC storm? This storm is the real deal and I hope we all cash in next weekend.

More concerned with the inevitable North trend over the next 7 days especially in a Nino pattern. I cant really recall a specific time in a setup like this where it shifted hard South. I really like where we sit at this range especially given the eps members that are NW hits and the trends n already on the GEFS and GEPS. 

6z GFS is about as perfect as you want to see at this point. Best to not be in the bullseye at this range so those EPS Southern hits and this gfs with jackpot also south give us wiggle room. And still snowing after this panel irt the ull pass.

Storm next weekend starting to show more potential. Signals still mixed due to weak ridging at high lat and interaction or lack of between STJ and PJ. EPS are a mix of Southern hits, direct hits, and I95 mix with NW burbs hits. Majority are South, the others are basically a mix of NW hits and 95 hits. Here are a few of the i95 hits

And still going waiting on ull to pass thru

Dead puppies

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

GEFS still showing a southern slider. At this range I'm good with that. It's just following the op. Id rather have this than it showing a Detroit blizzard. 

I will take the 984mb off the DelMarVa for kicks and giggles.

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you take a 50/50 blend of the 18z gfs & FV3 we get destroyed. 

Lol yep a squashed Southern storm on one and a Miller B OV to off of NYC redevelopment on the other. Just some minor differences between the two hehe.

At least no puppies were sacrificed at 12z. That means lead time is slowly lessening on this threat. 

Euro just woofed for the Dec 8-11 potential. However it also hasn't exactly been "the King" at this range since the upgrade. Solid signal for tracking potential though.

Euro op has been lights out deadly at this range since the upgrade! 

Dec 5th thread fizzled....DOA it seems.

Dec 8-11 period still bears watching....long way out there obviously. Latest op guidance clustering around a tucked look with coastal slp onshore or very near onshore around DelMarVa. Nao ridge nonexistent and allows HP to move out and storm to come n and w. Ens are mixed between sliders and another cluster of tucked lows. We were able to cash in back in Nov so we will see. Things to keep an eye on are the pieces of STJ energy moving across the US, the nao and if it can pump a ridge at the right time, and the WAR which is trying to foul things up. Very typical Nino look imo. 

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...what would we need to see to get a "perfect" track?...HP in a particular place? Timing? (Sounds like a rollercoaster week ahead if we're talking about that kind of evolution!)

NAO ridging timed properly to lock in hp

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, GFS is a hit. Ignore the bad thermal profiles. But it’s sort of a wonky 500 evolution. Still more panels to see, but the main southern shortwave sort of gets consumed by this bigger northern wave?

Ways out there but the warmish thermals have some credibility as we now have more of a tucked look on many pieces of guidance and this early with a warmish ocean still a tucked low probably wont cut it for i95 but this is all cloud talk as there is quite a ways to go. But this is the reason we are going to need NAO ridging this year. In many Nino patterns the tendency is cut or tucked. Without the nao ridging what we saw on the cmc, and the gfs family makes perfect sense. But again plenty of time and at least we have something to track again this early in the season.

10 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Agree. During the early part of the winter season, a -EPO is more likely to deliver cold than a -NAO for the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously doesn't hurt to have a supportive NAO regime but as we saw in 2014, a -EPO can be money for us.

As long as the EPO/PNA tandem are setup at a good longitude I fully agree. BUT, any deviation to the West, then without some sort of NAO blocking wont we be looking at cutter city? 

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Troughing through the GOA (+EPO) is the only negative here...

That raging +NAO doesnt bother you at all? Or are you speaking solely about the PAC oscillations? It seems we can hardly get both PAC and ATL to time themselves in unison anymore. Maybe a decadal anomaly?

I know I read here that a puppy dies every time a 384 hour surface map gets posted, but what happens when a 200+ hour snowfall clown map or 850-line map gets posted? Please tell me the consequential sacrifice isn't as severe. 

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, looks good. Majority are either a solid hit or southern slider. 

I'll take e7 and a bag of popcorn for 600 alex.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 given our maturity level I am not sure your way of describing your way of describing is suitable for this thread.  Maybe we need a new thread!

Radio show and storm mode should be implemented ASAP.

Have been watching the period between the 8th and 11th rather closely as there are back to back shortwaves moving thru the region. EPS took a large step forward irt the overall pattern evolution and the GEFS are starting to merge towards a coastal LP scenario with cold enough air around for a potential frozen event. 

However, while not overly enthused, we shouldn't look past Dec 5th too quickly. With the pattern being so fast changing right now guidance is still flopping around from run-to-run irt the handling of 500mb energy which is forecast to pass under the region. Again, flow is fast and doesnt really allow the subsequent trof to turn negative but this has the looks of a possible short range surprise minor event as a surface low tries to spin up while the UL energy swings thru. 

54 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

6z GFS is a no go. Why bother with it at this point since the New FV3 will take precedence come mid January


Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk
 

Precisely! Only if it shows what we want should we bother looking at it.

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bob.  Don’t take the 10 day prog seriously. 

Puppies....more dead puppies piling up faster than seasonal snowfall totals.

1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Agreed! Hey I notice in your winter stats you have snow and sleet separate...any reason for that? They should be combined as total snow correct?

No reason other than personal for my own log purposes. End of season I guess I can pad the snow stats and include sleet in a separate column. I will also pad with fall snow and spring snow 

Damn, y'all are just mass murdering puppies today. Poor things...they didnt do anything.

1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Hey Steve to my eyes the period from the 5th to 12th looks mighty interesting....stay tuned

I agree and hopefully we can cash in during this with another 'bonus' event before the mid month advertised PAC air regime overwhelms N America. That might be a break before winter truly starts in earnest later in the month. Starting to finally see a few positive signs anyway. Cheers. 

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the snowfall maps the EPS is still pretty much Meh on the possible earlier storm (centered around Dec 5th). Gets the 1/2" mean through the cities but most of that is coming from a handful of members. As far as the Dec 8-10 possible storm we have seen a very good improvement. Whereas the 12Z mean was showing the 1 1/2" line just through the cities the 00Z now has the 3" line. Seen a good improvement with the number of members showing snow for that time period as well as a handful of heavy hitters showing up. 2 members of which are getting around or over 2 feet of snow through the region.

This period would make sense as the ens has the pattern relaxing right around this time as we transition from BN temp regime and transition to the PAC air push. These are when we usually cash in. The roller coaster look on the ens looks to continue as I mentioned before this may not be a bad thing as transitions usually yield our chances as opposed to just wall to wall cold.