Ralph Wiggum

Quite the feature for a small area. Is that a 10" max I see? Dec 5 rule in effect lol.

Funny thing about this storm too....its still 144 hours out lol. Eventually it has to lock in and time start moving forward.

How is this barely precip into bwi?? Farthest N of every op and by a fair amount.

This suite was full of corrections.  Better data sampling likely the cause.  Fully expect more improvements on Wednesday maybe not in succession, but I've seen these corrections enough in the past to get a sense where we are headed. Fasten your seatbelts guys and gals fun times ahead.

2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

0Z GFS op has moved north....

Everything except cmc moved north at 0z. GEPS is now several big hits. Euro moved 140 miles N with lp. Expect this to continue as we get better data sampling. GEFS means qpf adjusted N quite a bit...accum snows back into parts of the region. Pretty large jumps north all around minus cmc.

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s hard to believe that is not a perfect setup for a monster storm. 

Right? Looks like the low near Nova Scotia wants to pinch off and form a 50/50 and the energy near the Dakotas ready to dive into the stj energy via the pumping of the +pna out west in response to that monster ull/trof building South of Alaska. Fun to dream anyway.

10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

There will be some serious namming for some areas once it gets into range....you best believe that.

Starting to see more solutions showing up on ens members with LP running the coast thru S NE. If these ideas at least stick I am willing to bet once we get within 84 hours give or take some op spit out insane solutions. 

Monster HECS in there skewing the mean. 

EPS are much better looking than the euro op. More later....back to work.

12 ops are still meh with fv3 and cmc still right there. Ironically the Euro is extremely close to making the second wave a beast but who knows. I do know they say a storm delayed is a storm denied. Going to come down to the confluence and timing of NS waves ripping thru the Northeast.

GEFS still has a equal split of suppressed, hits, and full phases. Interestingly the full phases are more snowfall this run than last few. Some HECS in there. If we get to 96 hours and start moving away then time for concern but attm still several options on the table. Conventional wisdom says around 84 hours the mesos start picking up and sampling energy better and draw us all in with some solid solutions. Then the globals follow them. Curious to see if that happens this time.

Was looking at individual GEFS members....there are now a few that stall the low off of NC/SC then crawl it North off S NJ coast over a 2 day+ period. Most of those members are also N of the mean. Needless to say that scenario wouldn't be an all snow event but would be a mess for coastal areas irt tidal flooding. Lots of options still on the table with this one.

GEPS mslp...quite a few members N and W of the mean

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Yep that's what I touched on yesterday. Without the confluent flow lifting out, there's no way really for the storm to reach our regions. Also, a healthier phase would be welcomed.

Positive changes overnight. Not all surface maps are on board yet but not too concerned. I saw what I wanted to and needed to see at 500mb with the overnight runs.

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

A met posted that the GEFS will be converted over to FV# sometime next year. Until then it is being run off the current programming.

Thanks

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS mean qpf went South after 4 consecutive runs bringing it farther N.

But the 500mb mean looks much improved. Cant make this stuff up.

GEFS mean qpf went South after 4 consecutive runs bringing it farther N.

Are the GEFS ran off of the GFS or are they completely independent? I'm wondering if when the FV3 becomes implemented if the GEFS will be ran off of a different progam/algorithm than current.

17 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Now that’s better than my first cup of coffee! Love waking up to that. Now where’s that coffee...

So the best part of waking up really isn't Folgers in your cup?

18 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

These modelsBut I’ll take increasingly heavy snow while watching the Ravens-Chiefs game 

Not models....merely guidance. They were never created or programmed with the sole idea of providing a solidly "modeled" forecast. They were designed to help forecasters see the atmosphere with more detail to aid in creating a forecast. But that's another topic for another day. Like they say, live by the models die by the models.

28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Also seeing a much quicker relaxation of the confluence to the NE.

Yep...not sure what happened to my fv3 post when it was out to only 96 hrs I must have accidentally deleted it, but by that hour you could already see the lead NS vort with confluence moving out of the way and heights building. Good stuff.

6z gfs had some changes at 500mb irt confluence lifting out faster. The fv3 did the same. This is starting to gain that look of a classic track TN to off Carolinas to inside Hatteras then NE/NNE. More support gained. Note the differences over the Northeast with the overall relaxing of confluent flow allowing for more of a N track. 

Flow is backing along coast and trof trying to go negative.

Night and day. In particular irt confluence and flow near NS and energy trying to phase near the Dakotas.

37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Took a step back I thought earlier in the evolution but came on strong later in the run with higher heights showing up in front of the storm. Liked the tilt of the trough better as well which would give the storm more room to move north as it strengthened. 

One thing we are starting to see is the idea that this takes more of a classic track ie off Carolinas coast towards or inside hatteras then NE/NNE as opposed to those runs past that were off the Carolinas then due E or even ESE. Upper levels gaining some support for this.