Ralph Wiggum

Soon to be retired GFS op in a world of it's own attm at 18z

ICON just jumped on board with the NAVGEM, FV3, and Euro for the 2nd half of this weekend. Awaiting GFS family...

24 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM is having none of that New Years time event, not a good sign with it inside 5 days

Meanwhile back to a fantasy day 8 ECM storm. Can't believe I am going to finish a cold November-December combo with like 18" rain and zero snow, boggling my mind something serious.

 

Every model has like 4 or 5 waves rolling thru in a 5 day span with the stj hanging out right under the region. Imo it's not a matter of IF it's a matter or which one. Still a few different scenarios but see my post earlier re: the transient neg nao and how we are entering a dip and have had a coastal with each one. Something is going to pop.

Not all of this is snow is extreme SE PA. Not a bad op possible sneak-attack snow with less than 5 days lead time:

3 minutes ago, jwilson said:

The whole evolution here is quite odd.  Progressive flow and marginal temps.  Haven't seen the Euro, but the NA models together don't look all that similar.  GFS is a relatively weak and warm wave 24 hours later than the FV3.  The Canadian likewise holds the system back until NYE and is even warmer.  The closest to the FV3 might be the ICON, which has been fairly consistent with the timing on Sunday instead of Monday, though it doesn't look like much to behold.

I honestly can't figure out how many waves we're getting here.  Looks like Friday/Sunday/Tuesday or Friday/Monday.  Though the GFS has almost 48 hours straight of rain for the southern states.

I know right? Too many pieces of energy which one is the focus here. Decent potential tho....worth tracking.

Temps marginal on most guidance but the trend has been for colder over last 18 hours or so. The threat has legs.

Dr No says let's roll.

I'm skeptical still of this new FV3....has a SECS here in SE PA for Sunday but of more head-scratching is the tropics namely the Eastern GOM later in the run. It's an interesting look for sure. Have had the Sunday system to at least track for several days now but very quiet in here. Interesting.

56 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

 

Kind of cool to look at the verification above and you can generally tell when we had coastal storms in relation to the negative dips.....we had the one coastal during the 3rd week of October then we had the mid November snow/coastal. Another dip between Dec 30 and early January forecast....so another coastal before headed back to neutral or positive?

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Cleaning out my attachment folder and accidentally deleted one from my post above. Here is the reposted map.

Until the NAO can either time itself with some luck during the transient negative phases or actually establish itself for more than 1-2 days we are looking at clipper city once the PAC establishes the better look. Our window now is the transition towards the better PAC (Dec 30-Jan 6?) then clipper city and cold/dry/suppressed as the PAC ridging overwhelms the pattern downstream (Jan 3ish+) then we hope the LR NAO progs actually verify for a change as we enter week 2+ of January and move along. The LR guidance has been handling the PAC a heck of alot better than the NAO so I am still very skeptical of some of the Atlantic looks we are seeing. Like many tho I am hopeful for mid Jan thru much of Feb for a stretch of wild winter threats and weather with the roller coaster pattern in full swing by Valentine's.

18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

once until we see this show a neg nao throughout the entire period expect the meh pattern with mostly rain to continue: 

 

 

 

Agree with this somewhat. NAO ridge continues to be a 1-2 day transient feature even though most LR guidance continues teasing us with establishing this as a locked-in feature. Some guidance a few weeks ago had us locking into a -NAO now as we were stepping towards an epic January pattern but hasnt verified. Who knows....could still happen. But until the LR NAO teases actually verify I will believe it when I see it. 

With that said, the PAC looks to show some improvements over the next 5-10 days and models have generally handled those regions better for whatever reason. EPO ridge looks to build as well as a positive PNA but honestly unless we can time some North Atlantic Blocking at the right time we are going to be seeing cold and relatively dry conditions in response to the PAC pattern establishing itself. Could cash in on clippers but generally is a suppressed feel for bigger potential without the -NAO.

Our best chances will come as we step towards this better PAC look (between Dec 30-Jan 6) then we likely enter the colder period where we rely on clippers if the NAO remains transient unless we get a lucky timing window. Hopefully later in January we can actually lock something in where we can string together a couple of weeks of solid winter weather. 

So probably not a total shutout coming but also not an epic KU-storm type of pattern either seen on any of the mid range ens tho there are hints that later into January we get into something better for everyone in the forum. 

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Feels like we are on cut and paste mode this winter. It just needs to snow again regardless of the setup...merry merry everyone 

We need to get something next week.....waiting till jan 15 to get your first inch of snow in an epic winter is nuts

Define 'epic winter'.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

ECM has a general couple inches of snow in the region New Year's Eve day

 

Not interested in the snowfall the Euro and others have for Sunday?

1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Merry Christmas to all and to all a snowy January!

Recent guidance really high on far NW burbs cashing in next 2 weeks. 

51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

One thing we are seeing on both models, which IMO is a big positive, is that they are and have been moving towards the idea of placing part of the pv into northern Canada towards the Hudson Bay region.

Like I always say get the cold established then we can set the stage for frozen as the pattern cycles. Cold antecedent air masses are probably the number one most overlooked or taken for granted ingredient for a winter storm. 

Merry Christmas all! 

Merry Christmas everyone! 

41 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That's 25-28 days away that's like a month or something 

Sunspots man.....sunspots

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

And bamm cold rain just started up once again like the weather gods pissin on me

 

Quakertown in the crosshairs on gfs family storm after storm. Far NW burbs are going to do very well this year. You must have really pissed them off man. Would be a major kick in the junk if NW has a tremendous season but Monmouth craps the bed.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The inner circle means the wave doesn't have enough amplitude to be significant. Circle of death. So no if the mjo goes into the COD it will do us no good. But it also won't hurt so at the least getting it out of the warm side will help. Would be better if it maintains amp into 8

So generalizing is it safe to assume the one member in the center of phase 8 would mean higher amplification and being 8 is traditionally cold would likely be a cold dry look (suppression ?)? Just trying to get an idea of how this can be dissected more than just cold phase warm phase etc.

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Mood swing Monday...

Don’t we need to progressively step up to the pattern advertised by the weeklies/seasonal forecasts?  The unicorn pattern won’t just appear...it’ll be a gradual step until mid month.

There is a crapload of hope on this step up process to mid month....more than I can recall. People still should temper expectations as always. We could theoretically still trip going up the stairs. 

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

That’s my fun day....

My I dont have to run day?

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still suspect we will see a 'sustained' period with a -NAO, but probably later in the month and especially into Feb. Looks like the pattern may more influenced by the PNA/EPO over the next 2-3 weeks.

If we dont cash in somehow before then things are going to be ugly in here. Fingers crossed.

I liken Nick Foles' epic performance yesterday to how winter enthusiasts root for an 'epic pattern'. Its fantastic to be hopeful, optimistic, and to keep chances alive going forward but 'epic' doesnt always mean we've won anything or cashed in. We need plenty of help and luck to get where we need to be.

Just now, Jandurin said:

Not true. Every day that passes brings us 1 day closer to the epic snowstorm or summer. Whichever comes first.

January thaw is traditionally around the 3rd week of the month right? That's about the time many folks are predicting the 'epic pattern' arrival. I wonder if somehow these cancel each other out and we just continue the general meh pattern?