Ralph Wiggum

I thought going into this Nino season that medium range forecasting would be less challenging than during last year's Nina. Traditionally guidance performs statistically better at medium lead times due to a less active NS to "muck things up". What we have seen with regards to the pattern thus far imho has been more of a Nino/Nina blend but actually with a lean to the Nina-pattern side. NS has been extremely active and progressive/transient with near constant moving pieces.

My confidence in anything past 4 days or so is admittedly extremely low at this time until we can establish some blocking up top and slow the NS down a bit. We have seen this recently many times with storms that were progged to cut into the GL yet tracked underneath us, NAO blocking that looked to hold yet was transient, the AO which looked favorably negative but is bouncing back and forth with no discernible trending, periods that were supposed to be cold but have been 'mild' and vice versa.

You can feel the Nino stj forecasting if we look back to the suppressed storm last week.....it was fairly well forecast in advance BUT we saw how active the NS (Nina look) was and was causing some extreme variations with that forecast in the medium range. I guess what I'm saying is guidance for the time being will likely continue to handle the stj fairly decent but it is that NS that is going to cause bouncing around/headaches and short term shifts with storminess.

The overactive NS with the Nino stj might not be a bad thing AT ALL moving forward if they time favorably/properly (what else is new?). The chances for something big is probably higher than normal and the chances for that sneaking up on us us also increased. However we are going to need to feel the rain before we get to the potential rainbow with sliders (cold/dry) at times and cutter (warm/wet) at times. Just my $.02

21 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

For those of you that closely watch the weather and trends.....if you are a winter weather enthusiast and do not see what it clearly in our future for January and February...well I just don't get it. I clearly see an above normal snowfall winter with at least one major Noreaster in the offing. Now if you are like my wife...and most folks they will not be liking the upcoming winter season

Paul, can you expand on what you are saying? What exactly are the clear trends  that you are seeing that are lining up for a big ticket winter? Only thing I am seeing is an active stj but the trend has been spotty irt wet/warmish wet/cold. Seems to be split and not really a clear look one way or the other. PAC hasn't been favorable....N Atl ridging has been very transient.....AO hasnt given us many clues. I see a clear signal and that is that we are going to need near-perfect timing and alot of luck to cash in like we had back in Nov where everything worked together. Nothing is going to come easy for us. Based on the past 4 weeks I am almost thinking that the Nov storm was pure luck and not a signal for where we are headed. I'm optimistic as we head forward but nothing on the horizon screams "winter of yore" to me for my area anyway.

We need some posts about sunspots or solar flares or wooly caterpillars or some 3-letter acronym index that nobody has heard of with unreadable graphs and colors to give us some hope.

5 hours ago, The Iceman said:

 

Need this to get better but if we can get the NAO to dip negative, the swing of the PNA from positive to negative with some blocking would actually be a good indicator for a storm in that time frame.

WAR continues reappearing on lots of guidance as well. Not getting much help anywhere it seems:

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS keeps getting worse. Now showing a +EPO and BN heights in AK to go along with the trough west/ridge east. It's a pretty warm type of pattern in the east. Even SNE/NE is probably shut out if that's what happens. These are the types of patterns that take a while to get out of because north america gets flooded with pacific air. 

We really need to hope the gfs is onto something with the neg nao looks it's been showing. Other than that possibility, my optimism is absent. 

This is why I have never been a fan of establishing a pattern and snowpack before Thanksgiving and find it somewhat overrated. In my experience 9 out of 10 times we have a positive look in Oct and Nov it turns out December flips over on itself, erodes any gains that were made with snowpack, then we as a whole are fighting to re-establish things which as Chill noted sometimes takes us several weeks. I'm with many tho and think mid Jan forward will provide our best chances.

26 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

The Nam model twice in the last 12 hours as said 5+ inches of snow for the LV for Monday. Why are there not more posters on this issue? The NAM is pretty good within 72 hours.  Even Mt Holly thinks this is a nothing burger.  My history with the NAM  for 30 years + is that it showing this for a couple of runs, its serious time.

 

Try the PA subforum....this is generally Philly itself and the immediate adjacent burbs for the most part. 

Mmmmm, burger.

Again, it's an eternity out there in time  but I would take my chances and roll the dice with this type of signal:

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Occasional flurries here.

Same here in Warminster off and on.

Quick post regarding the threat during Dec 24-26 give or take a day which I mentioned last week. Wont go into crazy detail as anything at this range is just speculation. However there have been decent signals showing up still for 'something' during this period centered around Christmas Day. 

General look is for an active NS with a trof near the GL and energy waves zipping thru and stj energy moving along (less of a trof settling in the SW look).  Will come down to timing but a couple of scenarios look possible. Southern wave coming up the coast (eps, euro control, and gfs op) followed behind with a clipper or a gradient pattern with overrunning. Precip type obviously very much up in the air at this point. Suffice it to say this is our next threat window still and the looks have improved with overnight runs.

Eta: Emergence of ridging in the Carribbean could be a blessing...some positives taken away. Could go either way keep in mind at this range.

3 hours ago, Newman said:

Thursday possibly some snow showers. 

We take

4 hours ago, hazwoper said:

You have issues.  Perhaps you’re the troll?  

Your comment about it not being a great winter when it wasn’t even winter yet is soooo far off base it isn’t even funny.  All forecasts called for a mainly back loaded winter.  Give it a rest.  You are amateur  like all of us.  

Dude seriously chill out.  What are you attacking me for? And yes it is officially met winter it began Dec 1. You really need to check yourself man this is a weather hobby group dont be so angry lol. 

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I remember this time last month reading how great things were looking for December so I take these "great pattern is coming in 3 weeks" posts with a grain of salt. It was a good read though.

NAO is raging positive, higher than what was projected to be. Ensembles not showing it going negative any time soon either. AO is positive as well and the models are all over the place after it dips slightly negative next week. No real consensus. The Pacific doesn't look too bad but until the Atlantic looks to get in line, I will be skeptical of these epic pattern calls. Yeah it looks seasonably cold but also progressive. Don't see it being much different than the period we just had. Cool and dry.. warm up before synoptic system then repeat. But with cold near by we can get lucky. Wouldnt be expecting anything more than advisory events though. Don't want to sound like a negative Nancy but I think expectations should be tempered until the Atlantic looks a hell of a lot better. 

 

Be careful or the trolls will say you cancelled winter because you told it like it is lol. 

I think after this approx 2 week period of N to AN temps and cutter storms we shift gears finally around the 21st and I am seeing signals on some LR stuff that tells me the period Dec 22-26 give or take a day bears watching. Whether or not the better looking pattern will hold or becomes transient tbd. 

Here comes our Christmas Eve/Christmas Day snowstorm moving thru the Rockies on the 23rd. It's gonna happen:

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Give it time Ralphie, peoples in parts of the southeast are going to be singing yore on Sunday. No way we were ever going to score twice this early million to one odds lol

 

Models continue to squash and shred the lp and the swath of snow continues to shrink even for them. I'm not impressed with where we are at nor where we are headed thru at least calendar winter.

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

No help from the overnight EPS. Won't lie, I will keep tracking this to the bitter end hoping for a Hale Mary but at this point I have all but raised the white flag. Models have a hard time with NS energy and just a couple/few days ago when we were seeing our farther north solutions they weren't handling this one feature correctly. 

The culprit is below where we see a piece of energy rotating down through southeast Canada. What this is doing is reestablishing the confluence that had just begun relaxing from the piece of PV that is now pulling up through the 50/50 region. Take that feature out and and chances are good we have our snowstorm up into DC/Balt. What we are seeing is ridging into Greenland (bootleg -NAO) with a 50/50 at both 500s and the surface. The confluence is relaxing in time to allow a northward movement of the low in the SE. Ridging developing in front of the trough that is dropping in behind the southern low. Also are seeing ridging in the west in a prime spot for developing eastern lows. A very good and almost textbook look for scoring in the mid-Atlantic. 

But what we are seeing is that energy in SE Canada doing is putting a monkey wrench into the works. For one it kills the ridging in front of the trough in the southeast which in turn does not allow it a negative tilt which is more conducive for capturing/ influencing the southern low and pulling it northward. Two, it is effectively putting a wall back up over top the surface low which is blocking northward movement as it amplifies. Pretty much a double whammy.

So what changes in the coming runs could we hope for to see a farther north solution short of getting rid of that NS energy?

First we could hope for a quicker departure of the piece of pv that is now running through the 50/50 region. A quicker departure would tend to drag the energy rotating around it farther north as it swings through SE Canada which in turn pulls the confluence farther north as well. Second, we could hope for that NS energy to be slower as it swings down through SE Canada. This would allow the storm to gain some latitude during the relax before the wall comes down again. But let's face it, at this point we are just fighting for the miles to get DC into the northern fringes of possible measurable. The timing differences needed to get DC/Balt back into the game for a snowstorm are probably close to insurmountable as both the Euro and the GFS are pretty much locked in at this point. So seeing a 6 hr timing difference maybe, but a day+, that is a tall order.

Now I admit, this is  becoming a big disappointment for me because I have had high hopes for this time period for 10+ days now just to see it wrecked at pretty much short range. But I wouldn't let this discourage you whatsoever for this winter. This storm, even though it looks to be a fail, is further cementing in my mind of what I expect to see this winter. That we are potentially looking at a block buster season. What we are seeing is both a juiced active southern stream as well as an active northern stream and they are converging in the central/Midwest portions of the CONUS as evidenced by this coming storm as well as several other storms we have seen recently. Now like a home run hitter, this setup will have its share of strikeouts but on the flip side it will have its share of home runs. Here's hoping that we see this home run hitter on a tear this year and not in the midst of a strikeout slump.

 

A good example of how a handful of us had this period circled since just after Thanksgiving because of the pattern looks on the LR ens. Globals currently portray basically what we were looking at....+pna, nao ridge, 50/50 low, stj energy passing below us. But this is a prime example of how a meso feature or 2 embedded within those good looks can screw the whole thing up. You noted these features very well in your post.

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

The next two weeks look bleak and uneventful, like you have to pay for the fast start in November

 

We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.

Is that another suppressed S VA, Carolinas hit at day 9-10 on the Euro? That's where we want it at this range right? 

Eta: nm....too warm everywhere 

I have my fork ready. 18z runs are the most important model runs since, well, um, 12z 

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Don't take this as hostile, I like a good debate, and I want to challenge some of your points, but I am not trying to shut down your ideas or the exchange.  I have been wrong plenty of times.  About this time of year I thought 2012/13 was going to be pretty good and it was a disaster.  The next year I was kind of meh on 2013/14 and it was a blockbuster so... I am no authority on long range, and of course I am biased towards my own clearly stated opinion that this year will be good.  I am actually as bullish as I have ever been at this stage. 

But some of your points seem to contradict.  First those seasonal forecasts are means.  There will be relax reloads within the pattern.  Additionally we can score snow without a total breakdown.  In both 2002 and 2010 there were periods where we went on a run and both years looked very similar.  It only take a few storms in our area to get to above climo so a blockbuster year doesnt mean wall to wall snow all winter.  But if you have a good pattern enough of the time the odds are stacked sooner or later you will get lucky.  

You say we need a relax then reference a "transient NAO"...doesn't that conflict.  If you want the nao to "break down" to get a storm why would a transient nao be a problem?  Especially if the pacific pattern is favorable in general.  I am not sure why you think it will be transient though.  It has been in fall but in a nino the NAO tends to become more negative as the winter progresses so saying its transient now has little predictive accuracy for later in winter.  

I am not sure what your point with the WAR is... we have generally had a good storm track the last couple months... it just has been too early.  Right now I wish we had a little WAR, but the problem is we have a -3STD negative anomaly in the western north atlantic and its crushing the flow along the east coast.  If we had a WAR this storm would be cutting not being squashed.  I have seen nothing that indicates a WAR to be an issue.  Matter of fact just about all guidance places a negative anomaly there.  

If anything I have an opposite worry, if we fail I could see it going down like 1980 where several big storms were squashed south in a weak nino pattern.  I could see that kind of fail more than a WAR cutter type fail for the winter.  

Again I could be totally wrong here just wondering why you see those specific things as issues.  

In a nutshell, until I see actual changes in the pattern and not just what weeklies, monthlies, or otherwise show, I like sticking with current patterns. Im not necessarily a member of the "atmosphere doesn't forget" club, but there is some validity to that as you can attest to, ie, patterns.....they are patterns because the tend to repeat. But even with the Ninos we have seen since 2000, it has been hard to get a -NAO to really stick like the old climo suggests. Climatology averages change over time as you are aware. So based on the decadal pattern we have been in (which could change so I dont sound contradictory....but "when"?) I think the NAO ridging will be transient again. 

My discussion was also not about the NAO necessarily breaking down but more about how the weeklies and monthlies have this feature trying to lock-in and how epic patterns on progs such as this usually in terms of real weather require a breakdown or relax to get a big storm.

I completely agree that to have an AN snowfall year we dont NEED a HECS......heck (no pun intended) we dont even need a MECS or a SECS. Alot of us along I95 can nickel and dime our way to N or even AN. 

As far as the WAR, it was a feature most of the summer which isnt abnormal BUT I noticed this feature held on longer than usual and when I gathered ideas back in Oct to form an outlook we were still dealing with this off and on. Maybe I have a bad taste still from 14-15(?) where that feature was a common theme....forgive me if I am referencing the wrong season btw. They tend to blend together in my middle age 

And yeah, I could totally see a squashed pattern as well especially if the Atl remains flat and somewhat progressive tho other factors like a raging EPO ridge among others could overwhelm us with too much cold at times IF the LR stuff has any merit.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Don't take this as hostile, I like a good debate, and I want to challenge some of your points, but I am not trying to shut down your ideas or the exchange.  I have been wrong plenty of times.  About this time of year I thought 2012/13 was going to be pretty good and it was a disaster.  The next year I was kind of meh on 2013/14 and it was a blockbuster so... I am no authority on long range, and of course I am biased towards my own clearly stated opinion that this year will be good.  I am actually as bullish as I have ever been at this stage. 

But some of your points seem to contradict.  First those seasonal forecasts are means.  There will be relax reloads within the pattern.  Additionally we can score snow without a total breakdown.  In both 2002 and 2010 there were periods where we went on a run and both years looked very similar.  It only take a few storms in our area to get to above climo so a blockbuster year doesnt mean wall to wall snow all winter.  But if you have a good pattern enough of the time the odds are stacked sooner or later you will get lucky.  

You say we need a relax then reference a "transient NAO"...doesn't that conflict.  If you want the nao to "break down" to get a storm why would a transient nao be a problem?  Especially if the pacific pattern is favorable in general.  I am not sure why you think it will be transient though.  It has been in fall but in a nino the NAO tends to become more negative as the winter progresses so saying its transient now has little predictive accuracy for later in winter.  

I am not sure what your point with the WAR is... we have generally had a good storm track the last couple months... it just has been too early.  Right now I wish we had a little WAR, but the problem is we have a -3STD negative anomaly in the western north atlantic and its crushing the flow along the east coast.  If we had a WAR this storm would be cutting not being squashed.  I have seen nothing that indicates a WAR to be an issue.  Matter of fact just about all guidance places a negative anomaly there.  

If anything I have an opposite worry, if we fail I could see it going down like 1980 where several big storms were squashed south in a weak nino pattern.  I could see that kind of fail more than a WAR cutter type fail for the winter.  

Again I could be totally wrong here just wondering why you see those specific things as issues.  

Didnt start reading yet, I will after I grab another cup of coffee but I was ready for the counter point as i know you are on the debate team iirc. Always admire a fellow PSU person :-)

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think most people realize there is an increased potential for a big storm in a favorable pattern, and odds are that we will have some classic looks this winter with the background state, and if HL blocking can lock in for a significant period. But no I don't think anyone believes a KU is a lock.

Well said. But I'm pretty sure Ji posted that he expects no less than 3 HECS for the region this year 

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Hope you’re wrong. I’ll give you credit for going out on a limb and taking a chance though. 

I hope Im wrong too. I love snowstorms and love tracking them as much as anyone. If u read my outlook I'm not calling for a shutout this winter just BN in my area....not the much AN alot of folks had gone with in their outlooks.

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think you are conflating some things here. We absolutely do not need to have a breakdown in a "great" pattern to score a winter storm. Yes many of the KU events happen that way, but we can have multiple light to moderate events with a locked in cold pattern.

I agree. My original post was banter that, and I should have been more specific, that alot of folks equate an epic pattern with an epic storm. Doesnt usually work that way.

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What specifically about the pattern and or key pattern drivers have you not liked?

Transient neg Nao and war were my biggest factors that went into my outlook. Wasnt an overly complex outlook either. I see the positives....I see the AO tendencies. By I also see the neg NAO that isn't timing properly with the PAC. And this isn't new.....this has been a decadal function. The tendencies have also been to pop a WAR that has either led to tracks, N and W, tucked coastal surface lows, or flattened when we get a stj entity moving across. Was hoping this coming storm would set the precedent for winter but this keeps repeating itself. I respect and admire those that have knowledge of alot more teleconnection and atmospheric factors than I (SOI, GLAM(?), etc) and factor those into LR forecasting and such but sometimes dont you think as a whole too much info overload makes things more complicated than perhaps needed? I'm probably completely incorrect about anything I've said....I learn new things every single day about this hobby. I'm hoping my outlook busts this year like my optimistic approach on this coming storm looks to have. And you know me (I think). I used to be a tool though many will argue I still am lol, but I also admit defeat and if I'm wrong while also not pumping my chest if I score a win like I used to 15 years ago. Just my thoughts. Cheers.