Ralph Wiggum
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Posts posted by Ralph Wiggum
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I think the other frustrating aspect at least for me is many of the pros on the board said we will be into a step up process if not by now then very soon BUT even with that said there was confidence that guidance would start spitting out unicorn digital snowstorms and just some sick snow solutions but instead over the past 30 hours we have gone backwards. It's a pit in the stomach when we cant even buy digital snow but ridiculous positive temp anomalies start showing up instead. Like we say the weather will do what it wants and it is what it is but it's still somewhat disheartening....and that's a fact.
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Massive volcanic eruption occurring again over in Indonesia. What effect does this have on the atmosphere irt weather? Or is it a tbd sort of thing?
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16 hours ago, KamuSnow said:
Maybe, but it doesn't have to be that good, lol. I don't think it handled November 15th correctly, although I could be wrong.
CMC has 2 wet snowflakes for us in LR this run so that's good I guess
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Alas....the GFS op has 2 chances for anafront wet snow TV. Those usually pan out nicely
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1 minute ago, RedSky said:
Yeah pretty sure I have never witnessed such a drastic change for the modeled temperatures in only 24 hours for the mid range and just two days ago this was an ECM snow event.
Right? How we can put faith in anything this year is beyond me whether good, bad, or indifferent. Purely speculation. I personally dont ever recall anything so flip floppy. It was LR struggles for a while then MR now it's the short range. I can only assume the current SSW is what is causing this? I had read this strat warming is entering unchartered territory and historic levels of warming given the time of season. Doing a heck of a number on the MJO as well. Wild stuff.
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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
We're good today. All bets are off tomorrow
Anafront snows rock! And that strong hp behind wont rush things thru either. Soil temps look to drop tho so that's a win.
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60F when the ball drops? 60s on NYD with 70s approaching S VA and mid 70s to near 80 in E NC? Maybe we can put a Wiggum Rule into effect? Tho as I said before generally January 6-Feb 7 will yield the 94% success rate. Drops off significantly (exponentially) on either side of those dates.
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47 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Nothing has happened...actually that's kind of the point. It's not whether it will or won't but as you and most know the waiting can be the most difficult part...its not like you guys are talking about next week you're talking about almost another month from now. I think a little snow falling will calm some nerves...me...meh... I'm mostly busting C.A.P.E fortunately for me he gets it
Agree 100% with this. Nobody is saying anyone is wrong and nobody is pumping their chest saying they themselves are right. Especially given the current calendar date. My post about analogs, MJO, etc was more of a things dont always go as planned type of thing and definitely not a personal attack on you or your forecast. I'm VERY optimistic of a pattern flip based exactly on those indices etc I noted. I am also very skeptical at the same time as it is difficult to look at the current conditions and recent pattern history but have your mind tell you that change is definitely coming.
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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Maybe people based the date on analogs, mjo progression, and guidance all being in agreement. That's why so many forecasts are similar. It's not model hugging.
Analogs-like snowflakes no 2 are exactly alike
MJO-somewhat a crapshoot. See Newman's post in the philly forum on MJO progression and how forecasts have been misjudging amplification and delaying our approach to the promised land
Guidance agreement-doesnt always mean they are right just because they agree. We can agree to be wrong...agreed?
If forecasting was only this easy we would all be pros at this. It's what makes this hobby intriguing....the constant lessons we learn everyday.
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31 minutes ago, Newman said:
Check out the MJO RMM charts. Models completely underdid the amplification into phase 5. We now have to wait for the MJO to cycle into cold phases 8-1-2 but that will take longer due to the extreme amplification into p5. Not only that but we need the SOI to take on a -7 or lower value. That ensures a more El Nino central PAC jet. We're stuck in a La Niña type atmosphere due to the Pacific Ocean temps not fully coupling with the atmosphere. The past couple weeks have been nothing but a disappointment. We'll have to wait until Jan 10th and on, perhaps later, for the MJO to fully cycle around.
Thanks for posting this. You are more knowledgeable on those indices so I appreciate when you contribute your understanding of the SOI etc to the discussions here.
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48 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
We have been here long enough to know...yes it's going to snow...maybe a lot maybe a little but it most likely won't be the way any model currently shows and definitely won't be the way the guessers are saying. I'm not being critical so hopefully people won't get upset it's fun to speculate and analyze and yes educated guess but the weather is gonna do what the weathers gonna do.
Ditto. I like to consider myself a speculator and it's essentially only a guessing game for most of us hobbyists. The discussion, friendly debates, and analysis are what make it fun. Well, that and the payout when we cash in of course.
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26 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:
This is exciting. We saw this blue over the North Pacific at 372-384hr a lot in October and November.
I thought that was in response to the typhoon over there no?
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What time do the weeklies arrive?
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11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Gonna be fun to watch the models take a step back and the January 20th crew start talking about how they never really had a lot of confidence. Its coming
I thought 'take a step back' was banned? We now say 'crap the bed' or 'abscond', right?
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I dont know what happened irt guidance over the past 30 hours but something is being picked up on and it isn't good imo. Not sure if this SSW and PV split is the culprit or the NAO ridging is back to looking transient but those steps towards an epic pattern are beginning to step back and be pushed farther out in time on both ens and lr ops. Snowfall means have backed off significantly thru mid Jan and a PAC dominated temp regime is now showing up. But before anyone points out 'well u just said a few days ago how the LR models are struggling ' I completely realize this and know it can change back. I am just discussing the pattern and sudden changes that are showing up. What I dont like admittedly is how the decent looks keep getting delayed. Temps for mid month....oddly the ops have been performing better than the ens means so go figure:
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7 minutes ago, yoda said:
That was a very boring 00z GFS
Calm before the storm? Eerie vibe when a 384 hour op model cant even throw us a flizzard at any time during the entire run in prime climo. Jan 20+ is going to rock
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23 minutes ago, RedSky said:
It's dead Jim
FV3 is apparently the new Lucy. Im so thrilled we are retiring the gfs for this piece of work.
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18 minutes ago, RedSky said:
It's dead Jim
Patience. All signs including magic 8-ball point to better times ahead as we approach the 3rd week in January.
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20 minutes ago, RedSky said:
The New Years threat is toast we have a majority in the models showing high pressure retreat east and a mild surge
Patience
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11 minutes ago, RDM said:
Laughing out loud here and I don't even have a clue why other than to conjure a guess the reference to "the Fractured Prune" is not about donuts? Gddamit, can't stop laughing...
Nah man....the place is pretty incredible. There r a few around in this subforum region.
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2 minutes ago, RDM said:
Moved this to banter for what may amount to some controversy, although not the intent. Had some Duck Donuts (DDs) a couple months ago at my work. No intent to offend any of the worshipers of Ducks, of which there are many, but the experience was a big let down. Heard folks rave about DDs for some time and really expected more. Found the taste rather bland actually. I'm not a huge Crispy Cream fan myself, but would take Crispy Creams over Duck any day. Still don't see them giving Dunkin a real run for their money. When Dunkin's are fresh they are hard to beat.
I thought the Fractured Prune was the premiere donut spot down that way?
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38 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:
Maybe, but it doesn't have to be that good, lol. I don't think it handled November 15th correctly, although I could be wrong.
I think u r right. Yeah its weird not having that old reliable friend in your corner to lean on during these difficult snowless times
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2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:
18Z FV3 looks like another <looking for snow flakes among the raindrops with a snow lamp> for Sunday night (sounds like this past Sunday night). The Icon (yes I know) and the FV3 do at least have some frozen in the area. Right now the Euro for the 4th looks decent, hope it's correct. Lots to sort out, next week should be clearer by this weekend. At least there's some tracking action for next week. Anyone notice how stingy the CMC has been for snow here, since it's upgrade? It used to be a snow hero for digital snow, not any more.
Not sure if the week after next will be warm again prior to the big freeze, or a continuation of next week but a little colder. Changes to a more supportive pattern appear to be happening, which is exciting, actual snow will be even more so!
By the way the Squirrels dialed the nut consumption way back after mid November, but they appear to be increasing their intake/storage (somewhat) again the last few days.
Apparently must have been a good upgrade then since weve been teased by other models but with the CMC showing nothing has actually been correct?
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Another model suite another mix of solutions....cutters rule the 18z. Energy in sw comes out and phase takes place as opposed to pieces of the ull ejecting like some models had earlier. Still an interesting window ahead.
December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion
in Mid Atlantic
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So if they/we are having an anomalous string of 'bad luck' does that not raise a 'red flag'? Not trying to be philosophical but they do go hand-in-hand no?