Ralph Wiggum

There is alot of optimism for January but soo much seems to be pending on the NAO which hasnt exactly worked in our favor in recent history....at least not locked in, transient at best for whatever scientific reason. Also the SSW dartboard and the PV is another big chance we are taking. Imo it's great to have a juicy stj and to be optimistic and roll the dice with that ingredient, but like alway we still require much more for things to actually play out and for I95 areas to cash in. Curious to see what transpires over the next 6 weeks specifically.

Looks like several chances coming up following the cutter later this week as we head into January. Headed into prime climo....some encouraging signals on the ens moving forward but we all know they havent exactly been the most reliable guidance in the LR over the past 6 weeks. Not getting fully invested in anything at range for a bit based on the MR changes that have been occurring. Will mention tho it appears the first trackable system we have seen in a few weeks will be Dec 31-Jan 1. Then active after that. Chances are we cash in on something ... just a matter of when. 

Had some flurries roll thru here in that past hour. That's 2 Christmas Eves in a row with flakes. Amazing run! Lol.

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

encouraging finally at long range. but its impossible(-EPO and -NAO)

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Still gives us front end frozen with that look because of a strong arctic high to the north.

That SE Ridge will be our savior this winter on more than one occasion. Just a hunch.

SE Ridge on Nino roids. Not surprisingly ops are bouncing all over the place. Thought this was post worthy tho:

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO is a central/southern VA snowstorm for NYE/NYD.

Atmospheric memory

57 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Considering banning the following also:

xxx looks "tasty"

"we take" . 

any post from Chuck

I'm taking other suggestions as well.

Squashed

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We do. Nothing happening till the 15th. 

So what happens in this subforum if say we are unicorn searching for this pattern that has promise and hope but said pattern change gets here like has happened in the past and it fails to produce? Asking for a friend.

This place will be rocking by the last week in January. Delayed but not denied!

Surprised hiw quiet it is here with what the Euro had at 12z.

38 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

God I hope we don't completely lose Modoki.

Sounds like some sort of Star Trek jargon. Dammit Jim....Modoki's dead.

11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

12z Breakdown for our next "chance" New Years Day

Old gimpy GFS a nice snow

New god knows what it is GFS has a cutter

ECM a southern slider

All bases covered? Check

 

 

That isn't a 'southern slider' imho....it is very much like the gfs op with slp off the SE coast but majority of qpf far North and overrunning. Hybrid gradient type setup. Looks acceptable to me at this range. I strongly doubt any model has the solution dialed in.

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It is slightly negative now. He may be looking at the advertised MSLP Anomalies in the LR and seeing lots of blue up top in the primary AO domain. With all the strat stuff going on, I would guess there is quite a bit of uncertainty currently wrt how exactly things evolve in the high latitudes. With the SPV taking a beating, it would be surprising to me if the AO goes positive and stays there in the long run.

Exactly what I was glancing at. Ty for explaining. 

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Glad to see EPS back to what we expect for January. I’ll just assume 12z ate some bad chili.

What do you make of the strongly positive AO on most ens during the same time? Just curious what role folks think this will play during peak climo? I recall reading here that the AO is perhaps the largest overall driver of the hemispheric pattern.

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

People say not to panic but it hasn't snowed here since Jan 2016 so any bad runs cause me to panic!

The struggle is real. Dont forget the atmospheric memory. Mother nature plays a balancing act. Yes weather is a living gender-based entity with a brain. I read it on the internet.

I'll just leave this here

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run.

The polar vortex centered over the North Pole....go figure.

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS getting more aggressive with the blocking. Not a big fan of how it is handling the pv though. Shifting and consolidating it on the other side of the globe. 

It will be on our side....at least a piece of it by the 3rd week of January if not before then. Trust the weeklies. This reload of the pattern thru that time has been consistently modeled. Until it fails completely as lead times shrink I have no reason to doubt where we are headed. Becoming more optimistic daily. And like both u and psu noted, we can still cash in during this time of climo without the PV parked to our North as long as we have the PAC help. We are entering that time of climo where we dont necessarily require absolute perfection. 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

6z gefs blocking is stout at end of the run 

The 'like' emoji/tag is nice for posts but we need a 'love' one added.

6z GFS has a steady stream of frozen threats to start the New Year going forward.

1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Storm total so far here is 1.60". 60F outside currently - seems like quite some time since its been this warm.

Would love to put the Wiggum Rule in effect but we are about 2 weeks early. Success rate now is only 50% at best but increases daily to 94% thru early January where it remains until Feb 7 give or take a couple of days. But who knows maybe we can muster some flakes within the next 5 days...guidance says maybe Sunday night early Monday morning. Like I said 50/50 chance this week going thru my 20 years of keeping logs on this. Also never knew JB had something similar based on t-storms. Curious now to see his stats and verification.

64f here btw. Feels like the holidays of yore.

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m salivating over those weeklies...thanks for posting them!

Nice seeing ya Jerry!

28 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man 3 hurricanes at the same time!!

Nah man....that's the WW3 model.....that's forecasting a major naval battle at sea starting WW3. I feel Bob's concern here...geez.

Just now, The Iceman said:

FWIW quite a few EPS members have 2-3" of snow for much of the area for the xmas threat. It's going to come down to track but has the makings of a surprise event that comes together inside 84 hours.

Agree with the short range surprise thing as alluded to last week. NS is ripping along right now like last year. EPS is basically alone now with the threat as most other ops and ens members have lost it. Lots of energy moving thru tho between the 23rd and 27th so maybe we can get a quick hitter to track under the region.