Ralph Wiggum

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

nah, crystal clear on this panel. We're good, bad, and everything else. 

I like the couple of members that circle backwards touching 7 then head into 6, 5,  then 4. Lol.

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The cutoff thing sucks though. Need the shortwave to progress with the flow or cold will run away from it. 

This looks more like a blindfolded amputee trying to thread the needle while submerged under 35 degree water hogtied to an anvil.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's the mjo. Not only is it in nearly unprecedented territory for a nino but it's taking forever to cycle through the warm phases. I'll admit I didn't foresee that. Until that weakens or gets out of 5/6 we are not going to be able to sustain an eastern trough. 

You really did it now. Impending mass exodus to the Panic Room lol.

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

It does seem like we’re just treading in place or going in reverse.  Every time it looks like things are turning a corner, another curveball is thrown our way.  Whatever happens the rest of this winter, will be a fascinating case study to analyze.  

It's not like we havent been down this road and studied the mythical day 10+ super spectacular pattern to end all patterns before yet we vow that we've learned and wont let the same mistakes cloud our vision ever again. Well, here we are again. As much as the eternal optimists wont admit, things are slowly unraveling. I will be content honestly if we can salvage a 10-day window of winter weather this year. That seems reasonable enough doesnt it? 

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Would be nice to get the epic euro weeklies pattern inside of day 10. That GEFS pattern says cancel the first 3 weeks of January.

Every time an epic weeklies is mentioned a unicorn loses it's horn.

New FV3PGFS3CPOR2D2 has a similar look now for late next week as it just did 24 hours ago for Sunday. ICON is inline again just like 12z yesterday. Not buying the old Lucy football yank this time around....its like some sort of sick groundhog day dejavu joke. Until the euro jumps on board then I will hug it until 18z when guidance drives a stake thru the heart.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I've had the same feeling for awhile (i.e., that after Xmas we'd be in a step back to a more typical Nino pattern and cold air), but it keeps getting pushed right.  Likely the MJO being in Phase 4-5 for so long is the prime culprit.  But Christ seeing the can kicked once again with another Pac jet extension showing up after whatever happens on the 3rd/4th is frustrating for sure.  

We are wasting a heck of alot of stj moisture and prime activity. We can only hope that once this change takes shape after mid-Jan we still have the stj component sticking around in a favorable spot.

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Sorry to interrupt the b*tchfest but FV3 threads the needle next week.

We do very well when it comes to threading the needle. True story.....too good of a look and we usually fail so theres that.

12 minutes ago, Newman said:

FV3 GFS for Jan 3rd

This model also had 10" snow much of Eastern PA for Sunday only 24 hours ago. 

Worst. Nino. Ever.

Summer 2019 is going to be epic! 

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 11 am, Philadelphia had picked up 1.13" rain. That brings 2018's total precipitation to 60.31". 2018 is only the second year on record with 60.00" or more precipitation. The record annual amount is 64.33", which was set in 2011. Records go back to 1872.

I have this very unsettling feeling that we are going to pay for all this wet weather in the form of cold and dry for weeks then a damp cool spring just to give us all a final kick while we're down. You just know it's coming. All this talk of significant pattern change....what would be more polar opposite of the (relatively) mild and wet that we have been locked into for 6 weeks?

7 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

A winter storm would likely happen as the blocking starts to weaken.

Archambault events kick arse!

1 minute ago, Ji said:

we need something man....we literally cant get it snow during winter months. November and March snow is BS hahaha....we need a flawed event....like in the late 80s where we got a foot of heavy wet snow after reaching 55 degrees on that same day lol

We need an April Fool's Day blizzard this year.

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm with you.  No need to be overly pessimistic and whiny as this train wreck of a forum has been, but your mention of experience is a good one.  In my experience, delayed is denied. But, I'm still in wait and see mode.

Randy, of concern to me are the posts not only in this subforum but others as well irt how the SSWE is in unchartered territory and we wont really know the true effects for another week to 14 days. But they mostly go on to say that things are still on track for a favorable pattern change by mid month. I dunno....sounds contradictory to me. I think the safest assumption would be if this SSWE is truly a rare event then all bets are off going forward. Going to remain cautiously optimistic for now.

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5.

Some of us had the warm up only lasting  10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period.

So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. 

A 10 day hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. 

This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase.

Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 which lead to our NEG departures. 

You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. 

This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm )  , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking.

Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak.

 

Patience , we go through this every year. 

 

Nothing has changed. 

I would rather have near normal temps during prime climo and peak cold rather than strong negative departures as that generally spells an overwhelmed arctic pattern and dry/suppressed pattern but that's just me. Cold is never a bad thing until there is too much.

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that's what I hope doesn't happen-we get the -NAO in March and then have to wait til June for good weather (last year)

CFS monthlies had this exact scenario FWIW but many discarded them because they were cold and rather dry in Jan and Feb once this supposed pattern change takes place. Cautiously optimistic for the time being but admittedly my optimism is beginning to slowly wane. 

3 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

This—I don’t think I read any LR forecast that described a less than snowy winter

Really? Interesting 

1mb wind reversal occurring irt SSWE. 

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Same here.  Go Flyers!

Fyp yw 

New euro weeklies are solid moving thru the next 4 weeks....progressive step-up improvements each week. Now if we can only get them to verify.

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Strongly positive? Yikes! Red flag or no? (I mean...it sunk the 1994-95 winter too, didn't it?)

I tend to put ALOT of stock in Isotherm's discussions and this doesnt concern me very much. He literally just touched on this subject 45 minutes ago and the propagation we should expect regarding the AO. Basically we flipped December and January due in part to the MJO coupled with the unforeseen strength of the current SSWE.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies do look good but just checking week 3 from the 12/20 run against current week 2 progs doesn't give me much confidence. Basically, the very strong trop PV and low pressure over the pole was not picked up at all. If the current week 3 prog is going to verify then the thing to watch is the building of the EPO ridge displacing the strong trop pv from over the pole to Siberia. By week 3 the weeklies show higher heights and surface pressures building quickly in the arctic circle. By week 4 there is expansive high pressure in all the right places. 

 

Isotherms update just covered this exact thing. Trop PV over NP *should* be a relatively short-lived feature irt geopotential heights in that region:

"Most of the high latitude blocking through the first 10 days of January will be over the NAO domain, as the z150 and tropospheric vortices will be displaced near the north pole, resulting in lower than normal geopotential heights there, at least initially."  - Isotherm

BIG exhale! Weeklies look steady as she goes....now to just get them to verify and we should all be smiling by this time next month at the latest. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok...fair question.  I think its too small a sample size to know.  But history suggest Boston wasn't getting big storms early in most nino years...but they were getting nickel and dime stuff from clippers and such...this year that kind of thing has been absent in general, even during the cold period it was big storms or bust.  Boston had a couple close misses also so them sitting with nothing vs a couple inches so far is probably bad luck. 

Well most of us know and are aware things can turn on a dime much like the NYE/NYD looks we have and are seeing. I have confidence and believe it or not I am optimistic even tho it doesnt appear that way. Just bored right now like most. No reason at this point to 'cancel winter'. I don't see a complete fail this year. I think at absolute worst we get a 10-14 day window of really legit opportunities but I have faith in your forecasting skills based on experience and well as all of the dissecting you have done recently and over the years. It's still very early. At least some ops had digital flakes to hold us over for the time being.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Are we?  We had 3 straight years of above average snowfall from 2014 to 2016.  That is pretty rare actually.  Since then we had one really awful year, and one year that was actually only a little below a median winter even though people acted like it was god awful (probably because it was mediocre following a god awful winter and we got spoiled).  But where is the perception we are having bad luck?  Or did you just mean this winter so far?

Was referencing your post irt Logan and them only having .2" this season so far which you asked if it was bad luck.