Ralph Wiggum

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Fv3 has snow on the 7th and an IVT for the Jersey coast on the 10th

Nice storm signal also showing up Jan 12-14. At least the activity isn't slowing down.

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ve been thinking the pattern flip will be quite sudden and that guidance shows exactly how it could happen.  I don’t think this is going to be a 3 week gradual pattern change but heck, what do I know especially this winter.  

The tanking SOI and dramatic sudden pressure increases on the PV with wind reversals are dead giveaways....this wont be gradual. Hopefully it sticks around like the weeklies suggest and this isn't merely a transient flip which i do not believe to be the case.

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob, Wonder if we go to this and faster .

 

Like the flip of a switch. Fuse is lit how long til it reaches the powder keg seems to be the only question remaining.

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 kinda squashes everything so net result is bad but check out this flow right here... Pattern change coming early?

Possibly tho not convincingly. Been cautioning folks looking too far ahead and missing positive changes in the mid range right under our noses.

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The crops that bloomed the last month are now going to fail?

My lilac bush has buds already which is just crazy. Not all over but some isolated branches clearly have buds. I just saw while taking down Christmas lights. 

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I just watched an entire DT video for the first time (and it was actually good).  And I learned how to read those SSW wind reversal forecasts.  Anyways, he ended his video comparing this winter to 2009-2010 in terms of the timing between the December storm in 2009 and the Jan 2010 event (40+ days) as well as the upper level patterns of Jan 2010 to this January.  I’m not saying this will be a repeat of 2010 and no two winters are alike but 09-10 did feature quite the boring, PAC puke period too.  Only difference is we missed out on a December WSW storm by less than 50 miles.  

 

 

He mentions several 'baby vortexes'. Guess those daughter vortices have been busy and misbehaving under daddy PVs nose.

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Speaking of quickly, the sudden appearance of the better pattern showing up, and the models getting the proper ingestion from the ongoing SSWE you could venture a guess this afternoon's Euro will show a further improvement over last night's.  

I feel an 'ALEET ALEET' in the not too distant future.

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are going to be a few "ifs and buts" in here but if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8/1 before dying and the SOI continues to drop and then remains negative... after that if the next MJO wave is weak (as is likely if the soi is negative) it wouldn't matter much if it goes into warm phases.  Actually some of the really good analogs the best snow periods came during a weak run through warm mjo phases AFTER a run through cold helped set off the chain reaction.  History suggest if we get a pattern change to a nino base state with strong high latitude blocking a weak warm phase mjo wave will not have much impact.  Barring another duel pole SSWE to drive an MJO amplification I think we will be ok.  

Going almost directly and that quickly from a phase 8 weak 1 straight back to a 4 would likely spell a major event as the transition happens IF we get the cold and IF it hangs around long enough. Obviously could score before then too but am I completely wrong in my assessment? Sort similar to an Archabault where the neg NAO transitions to a pos NAO and we tend to get hit? What would such a direct course from cold to warmish mean? Again i cant help but think something like that would yield a potential BIG ticket event somewhere in the East. 

Didnt see this posted here in the Philly forum so here ya go. I'll take my 4'+ and be satisfied with winter. I think I95 can write off the next 6 days or so for all intents and anything meaningful so in essence this is mid Jan thru mid Feb. Drool worthy. 

This essentially says big time epic flip of all pattern flips on the way whether or not we verify the totals this is spitting out. We take. 

12 hours ago, Scraff said:

 

I dont hate the Caps, I dont mind WV NCAAF, but you lost my respect with the Cowboys thing. We used to be cool man  

P.S. You havent seen uninspired lazy sloppy garbage until you've watched 5 minutes of the 2018-19 Flyers. 

35 minutes ago, frd said:

This is sweet  Notice the increased spacing between daughter vortices growing

Let me know when the daughters are 18 please. This sort of thing isn't really suitably appropriate for me to be looking at. Is it ok to say they are developing nicely or is that just weird?

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been holding off on posting about this but I have had a strong suspicion we are about to see the whole pattern blow up with extremes in the latter half of January into February. The whole setup is a ticking time-bomb just waiting for something to light the fuse. Now whether for the better or worse for our region it is hard to tell but I do slightly favor for the better from what I see at this point. Want to see some more runs before I possibly post something about it to see if my thoughts have any merit. What I will be looking for are the models to start picking up on a possible deep intrusion southward of one or more of the pieces of trop pv. And in fact I do believe they have been hinting at the possibility already.

I posted something similar a few days ago when we were discussing things but became skeptical over the past 3 days that we would get there. Yes, there is a powder keg in the upper atmosphere and I think the fuse has been lit. There is a discussion about the SOI and its effects and a chicken vs egg type of discussion where I noted once the SOI tanks neg for 3 or 4 consecutive days it will start happening....that was/is my belief. Well, we are there. Good times ahead. 

Overnight eps continue to show marked improvements moving forward and are now very much in line (if not ahead) of the weeklies progression towards a very favorable look as we approach mid month. PAC firehose is finally breaking down on all 3 major ens means and the looks up top irt epo NAO and ao look favorable as does the pna ridging out west.

Obviously this decent look in the LR could still crap the bed but is beginning to move closer in time now finally. Unclear also what it all comes down to in regards to real weather here but with tellies lining up favorably should increase our chances for wintry weather as we move towards mid January and beyond.

Now that we are back to seeing the light once again on guidance I completely expect guidance to start taking steps back at 12z 

52 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Yes, I can see that but my question wasn't clear. What caused the change in the Pac? Mojo-related; SOI; PDQ; strat stuff?

JB got his mojo back

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Give GFS #2 a chance, they say it's new and improved and has vitamins

 

 

I actually read an NCEP disco that mentioned the FV3 hasnt met expectations and has several key issues. They are planning a final release in late 2020 or early 2021. I dont recall if they are eliminating the primary release this month or not but they noted the gfs op was outperforming the fv3 in several case studies. Also unclear what role if any the govt shutdown will play as far as delays.

Yeah if there is a 180 degree reversal in late Jan and you/we end up at like 200% climo in a back loaded scenario after the start we endured...THAT is epic hands down.

Eta: we could still epic fail as well. This is all just a tease still at this point. 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In 04-05 it was the ETA. They changed the name from the meso ETA to the meso NAM in 2005.  

I miss the NGM....we would wait on pins and needles for that and the ETA and AVN to roll in.

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Ha....the one member with zilch. Probably the one to verify.

Lol control run. Yeah, really performing well as of late. That dang model has given me about 60" digital snow over the past 4 weeks. 

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Reading on another forum that the weeklies look great after week 2?  I don’t have access to them so can’t confirm.

eta:  confirmed by the NE forum.  Week 3 has a +PNA/-EPO and -NAO.  

Now the eps weeklies will cave to a crud solution as lead time shrinks....watch.

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Overall, I'll pay money for a under performing-juice starving clipper right now...

I'll pay good money for a 5 minute snow shower from a streamer coming down off of Lake Erie.

Is this what a hamster wheel feels like?

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We have had so much bad news I feel we are due for something positive.  But even seemingly positive moves by the indices are often thwarted by follow up dumpster fires so cant be too enthused just yet.  EPS today is important 

Most hugest run since 0z.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Are you talking about the miss to the south d11 or the d15 rain storm?

Not the surface looking at 500mb. You know better. I admire your sarcasm. 

12Z FVC3PO is workable.