Ralph Wiggum

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did someone say January 20th lol

Chuck says Eastern US warming and nasty pattern ahead though.

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

1) The NS runs interference and we have a weak and suppressed system running to our south with minimal impact (inch or two at best) through the DC/Balt corridor. This is/has been the solution I have favored all along and I think is the most likely outcome.

2) The NS stays out of the way giving the southern low some room to amplify and come north somewhat. This scenario probably puts us into a moderate event of 2-4, 3-6 inches type of deal.

3) We see interaction and /or phasing between the two streams and the low strengthens and pulls up the coast. This is the potential SEC/MEC scenario with 6-12+ possible if we see a clean phase. Lesser amounts if we see a partial or dirty phase. Unfortunately for you Big Dog chasers a clean phase is also the least likely at this time. The general setup and timing argue against it.

 

I mostly agree with this. Also think most should be pulling for #1 the way the winter has gone. I'm sure Ji would be fuming but I will gladly take an inch or two of fresh powder to blanket the ground and walk away thrilled. 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Gfs lookin better then 0z . Better height rises out ahead . Should be decent hit .

Edit:

Looks like we lost thermals this run but still not a bad hit for many  . The storm is still there so that's what's important 

Seeing a pattern.....those that phase are tucked lows which would yield thermal issues...the guidance that misses the phase are weak sauce. Not sure we want a phase unless we thread the needle with timing and location irt the phasing. I mean...I will take my chances if we want something bigger but at this point I'm pulling for the weak sauce honestly just to get snow for most. A phase could still be a s-r type event however.

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I would definitely pick the saints but it will be a better game. Our defense is playing much better. Some is the replacements getting used to the system. They were all brand new when you saw us back in mid season and Avonte Maddox and Darren Soroles coming back along with the offensive line getting healthy was huge. Plus Foles is just playing much better than Wentz was. Right now Foles is just a better QB. Wentz has huge upside long term. Tough choice coming. If Foles wins another SB that would make the choice for them I guess. 

But I suspect a rested at home saints team is pretty close to a brick wall next week but I suspect Foles and the defense will put up more of a fight this time.  

 

Agreed it will be a better game. Generally teams coming off an emotional finish to a game tend to be flat the next week. I doubt coaching and team leadership let's that happen but it is certainly historically possible. 

8 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Classic GFS keeps this thing warm, laid back, and SE..... Classic GFS...

And at 6z has a tucked coastal snow to rain look for I95 and nearby burbs. Classic. 

I actually think the worst loss of the season against the saints earlier this season will serve as more motivation for this defense. This D is like a Hornets nest again and we outdueled the top D in the league today. Completely different team than when the Saints played the Eagles in the regular season. I am ' cautiously optimistic'

But that Eagles game......

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 cold on the gefs at the end. 

That is a stable triple trough alignment with high latitude blocking. That pattern can stick around a while.  It's as hard to break down as a crap one that is stable, locked in, and fully supported by the global pattern drivers. 

Is that the fabled 'ridge bridge'?

Just now, Newman said:

I see the normal GFS but not the Para-GFS.

Clear cache maybe? The gfs on there had been the fv3 for a little while now.

Just now, Newman said:

Maps? Where are you getting it so early?

Ncep

10 minutes ago, Newman said:

Nice move by the GFS to go from Florida to the PA border (about 1000 miles) in 6 hours.

FVC3PO is a tucked coastal low. Wont bother with precip types at this range. 

Dont forget the North trend and the bullseye rule 

Wow ugh

Great finish building....to the Baltimore game not winter.

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You should all do something that is far more enjoyable and relaxing then watching the Ravens tank again. Say like, maybe follow the unicorns in the long range? 

Unicorns are losing horns while puppies and bunnies are being slaughtered. It's horrible in that thread....H-O-double R-ible!

15 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Nick Foles is much better. 

First thing you said in 18 months that I agree with.

4 hours ago, frd said:

You think the Eagles can win today?  Even cover the spread, maybe take the Eagles with 6?

I think we see the same indications form the SB game. If Foles looks good first 15 minutes , and can get the offense going,  might win the game.

And I thought Wallace was going to play last week still not able to. 

Lastly, this would be the week for Golden Tate to get 100 yards in the air, and be golden .  

Not sure Eagles offense is going to win it but I guess we will see. The Eagle D is going to need to force turnovers if not score on one or two of them....period. And that is a tough task but this defense has been playing like a Hornets nest so who knows. Get in Trubiskys face early and often and the Eagles have a solid chance. Otherwise a long afternoon. 

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Icon shows the rain snow line over dc at the end but temps are well below freezing. Sleet or zr would be more likely but as always... getting ahead of myself...

Killing bunnies man....what did they ever do to you?

Holy Icon Batman! MECS on that model next week. Big potential.

30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Honestly that look the 18th through and beyond the extended is drool worthy at 500's. When the the first storm on the 18th started showing up I had pretty much resigned myself to it being a rainer and setting us for what follows but the GFS suggests that may not be so much the case. Could be an epic stretch if it hits on all cylinders. But !2 days + away so lets see where it goes.

Exactly! I would hope nobody thinks those thermals are even close or should even be looked at tbh. My post above was to tongue in cheek and a distant jab at Ji and Chuck 

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I will save Ji the trouble. The GFS is an epic disaster. The worst I have ever seen. Have no idea how we can live with this. This winter is a complete FAIL. This hobby sucks. 

Jan 18.....985mb slp at the benchmark middle-late January and rain back into the Appalachians. Epic fail. 

Eta: After the 13th threat. Strong signal for a big storm showing up.

CMC has bowling ball triplets traversing the country. And there is a daughter vortex up north. Mother nature and big daddy PV are angry. Maybe old man winter can finally make an appearance? Would love to see the grandaddy of all storms. Meh that would require sister luck to help out.

Someone needs to start a storm thread. Chuck?

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I hope the Cowboys win.  Carroll is a tool

But Jason Garrett isn't? 

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So if listing day 15 kills puppies what does posting monthly progs do?

You must have missed that memo a few weeks ago. Every time a weeklies weeks 3+ are posted a unicorn loses it's horn.

4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is the 14 day GFS ensembles.. I'm pretty much wanting to call it a warm January and February. 

I didnt want to waste the bandwidth but I will reply. This is thru Jan 20 give or take. The real pattern change takes place Jan 21+. These maps ALL show substantial cold ready to drop South. Those maps do not imply a warm end of Jan nor Feb. Please Chuck....just please.