Ralph Wiggum

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

if i read about atmospheric memory one more time. i may kick puppies. 

Cats....kick cats. We already sacrificed enough puppies, bunnies, and unicorn horns this year.

19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

When should we/models start "locking in" to this potential event? Tomorrow night's run? Currently I feel everything is still way up in the air...more so than normal. If this damn thing slides way to the S and we get zip I may lose it.

Goalposts should be clearly set by 18z tomorrow then we just fine tune as we go.

Eta: No 'double-doink' hopefully 

You know we are entering an active pattern with plenty of chances when the LR thread is silent....no unicorn hunting nor complaining of any sort. Amazing turn of events.

1 hour ago, MD Snow said:

Anybody else seeing that both the GFS and ICON seem to holding things back a bit. Their 6z runs now bring the SLP up to Hatteras between hrs 114 and 120. ICON has been hinting at this. Will be interesting to watch. This would support the idea of maybe a front end WAA Saturday night, a dry period and then getting hit by the coastal Sunday afternoon. Something to watch for today. 

 

For instance, here's the GFS at 0z and then 6z. 

 

See my earlier post....IcON was setting up for a later possibly more robust system Monday.  Delayed but not denied??

CRAS also honking for a more amped up and bigger system. But then again what else is new.

JMA has similarities to Feb 1983 leading up to that storm evolution imo. Just not as deep latitude digging in the stj but aligned similar with key features. 

6z ICON in a world by itself? Going for a delayed but much bigger storm for Monday now. Much more amped and diving N Plains sw into a better looking and consolidated stj sw at 120. Extrap likely a SECS/MECS.

FVC3PO vs the world....has a 5-10" storm for SE PA and well defined upper energy while most other guidance seemingly is much flatter and more strung out. 

NAM may be NAMming us in its longest range....rather typical biases appearing.

Again tho....we continue to see essentially an all or nothing type event on guidance ie light/light-moderate (c-2 with 3 inch lollis) vs SECS/MECS (4-8"+) for SE PA. Comes down to strength/consolidation of stj energy, phase vs non or late phase, strenth/location of confluence and related HP. 

FVC3PO is a good hit.....hasnt wavered. 

Most elongated and slowest moving upper level energy ever.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I care less what the icon shows than the nam lol

Almost CRAS time good buddy 

Low captured near Hatteras on the Icon? Stalled at the very least...tick NNW at one point as the ull opens. And what's that vort diving SE in the Plains at 132? Either way u slice things active pattern coming.

Icon with a closed ull. Hmmm.

Euro is a general 1-3" Southern PA.

44 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Even 1-3" would be good. Just to get that feel we're on the right track.

We're in a major funk right now.Cloudy/chilly/cold/ rain...repeat. And today we have fog...  

A coating to an inch is a win. Beggars cant be choosers. I see this as the most likely option for SE PA not verbatim but as in a light event as we get skirted/brushed

11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

GFS came way north at 12z. easily a good 100 miles further N. Only gives us a light 1-3 But really not far off from 2-4 or 3-6. Definitely a good jump, lets hope this is the beginning of a trend. So close to being something big too.

Like I said a few days ago two scenarios....a phased SECS/MECS or a light-borderline moderate event. The former is on life support. I would be thrilled with flakes falling in any form.

Just now, mappy said:

there is no trend. the models are jumping all over, both in H5 and surface. 

Wouldnt call it a trend on any model but they are clearly coming to a concensus/ middle ground.

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

 But it trended in the opposite direction compared to 06z

Noise

38 minutes ago, Newman said:

NAM at 84 looks decent 

That energy N of the GL is what the bigger ticket solutions phased in and helped draw it North. We could still score a light-moderate event with the stj sw still if it comes far enough N. I think we are losing the big ticket setup tho now so we can hope for the former.

2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

no way - keep an eye on this - nice changes on the 12z NAM....for the 1st time in a long time the right ingredients are present....now will it deliver?? who knows but certainly no time to stop watching till at least 0z on the 10th IMHO

I'm with ya....not giving up but the flips and flops are laughable. 12z ICON says not happening.

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

With how we could fail in the coming period, pv dropping down, I would say the interior NE wouldn't be happy campers. I wouldn't rule out the coastal regions though as they could get some recurving love from systems that amplify out to sea.

To be clear though, while I do somewhat expect to see a displacement south of the pv my concerns on this being detrimental to our chances are low at this point just from the different things I am seeing and how I believe that displacement will evolve. Doesn't mean I am right, just means I won't be panicking until it is pretty obvious that we are in trouble.

Agreed....the suppression thing is merely speculation for now until we see how the pattern evolves. Merely a possibility. I will say the control euro 45 day snow map doesnt scream loads of snow for the deep south . Not that it's right but I'm not seeing a strong signal there.

8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I do like how we are within 120 hours and things are slowly starting to step towards better solutions as opposed to stepping down. Usually a good sign. Feeling ok about this one regardless of the KMA and DT's very little N of Richmond jargon.

Lol and like that all guidance takes a seat on the toilet and drops a big deuce with steps back and a much more sheared out look. The back and forth from run to run this year have been nothing short of breathtaking.  I mean, we get 90% of guidance in one suite saying game on in a big way....then next suite the 90% say game off......then back to game on, etc. I will say this....the Euro hasnt and often doesnt make these flips from run to run and is generally the most consistent. 

On to the next threat or are we still holding out hope for a N trend and a SECS here?

19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

He could be right 

I guess we will see if this seasonal tendency thing is real with the coming weekend threat. What sucks about seasonal tendencies is even with a pattern shift the same general theme often presents itself. I dont necessarily agree with the sharp cutoff thing tho certainly possible....but based on the LR guidance I do have a strong suspicion on where things are headed in terms of apparent weather.

7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

The 06Z GFS is hilarious, suppression city with the next few storms. Richmond gets feets and feets while DC smokes cirrus.

DT has been hammering this hard how he feels Richmond South could be ground zero next 4+ weeks with a sharp cutoff North of there. Says the upcoming pattern is speaking to him.