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Ralph Wiggum

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    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    12z gefs pretty unanimous with a strong storm signal d8-10. The faster solutions are mostly rain and the slower ones are either mixed or all snow. Timing appears to be key here. Some solutions have multiple waves as well. We're in shotgun mode with large spread so there's just no way to know how it will shake out yet. 

    We take

    gfs-ens_mslpa_us_38.png

    • Haha 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    GFS hangs the surface low back just off hatteras as it waits for ul energy to catch up. Not much change up this way however. It looks like the odd one out still irt the wishy washy waa depiction then diving ull in like other guidance which has it farther N and moving due E or even slightly amplifying raising heights along coast.

    We toss?

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    GGEM came N and W with the coastal low. If I lived S and E of Philly into S NJ I would start paying close attention. Not sure how much more adjustments we can see to help the NW folks and if it will be enough to get us in the coastal banding up here or not. Still c-2" up here with 3" lollis seems reasonable for now. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    As we get closer, you can see the intensity of the WAA snows increasing which is normal. I expect the ticks N to continue up to the event which is very common with WAA. 

    The waa will do the usual waa thing and over perform slightly. I'm more interested in the trends with that ULL feature in the midwest. If it comes east and maintains rather than get squashed S and sheared some areas may get a surprise from the second doink.

    Eta: probably more of a DC impact than us

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    I think saturday night has the potential to overperform. The snow maps are based at 10:1 and I would be very surprised if we only saw 10:1 ratios. JB was saying something about 30:1 ratios but even 15:1 would make this a solid advisory event for SE PA. Extreme SNJ may get a warning event out of this..

    My interest level is slightly raised. The ticks N continue. And I agree with an advisory level event. Check out the changes on the NAM vs 6z:

    namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh42_trend.gif

    Eta: look back at the slp in the Miss River valley not the waa stuff

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    The AO means we'll have cold around, however without a slight neg nao in place, we're going to be relying on good timing. I want to see some consistent blocking showing up like in the weeklies, just not as severe. We also need EPO to go and stay negative which is showing up in LR. Actually 6z GFS shows exactly what I mean. We get a great system, with a pretty good look other than the NAO.. but  with no blocking in place the system rides the coastline resulting in rain for 95. A -AO/-EPO/+PNA/+NAO pattern is much more favorable for the Lehigh Valley imo. It will be hard for 95 to get a massive event without a thread the needle situation... but we've been hella lucky since 2010 in worse patterns... More just playing devils advocate here.

     

    We rarely get sustained neg NAO patterns. Most of our snows in the last 8-10 years have been during NAO fluxes. Like I said....give me the other teleconnections and I will take my chances with the nao index teetering back and fro.....dont need an epic nao look that is probably too much of a good thing. We will sync them up at least once before winter is out. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    until this looks better, i'm skeptical of any lasting pattern change..

     

    nao.sprd2.gif

     

    Feels like we've been seeing the tank to negative forever now. Then once it hits negative it is progressive and bounces right back to positive. Weeklies are promising, though they have been poor this year. MJO isn't as potent luckily but still looks to be moving into an unfavorable phase and by passing 1 and 2. I guess what I'm trying to say is I don't really trust anything past day 15 rn and the GFS has been pretty good at sniffing out pattern changes. I hope you are correct though. Just seems like every time we get a great pattern this year it's in place for a week then we get a hard reset. I hope that progressive pattern changes but I am skeptical at this point until we see a lasting neg nao.

     

    On 1/9/2019 at 11:40 AM, The Iceman said:

    this is what we want to see:

     

    ao.sprd2.gif

     

    As long as we have cold in place, we will do well in this pattern. I don't see the moisture train shutting off.

    Quoted your post from the other day highlighting the AO tanking. I think this is going to be more of the driver irt us getting snowfall vs the nao. I actually dont want to see the nao as negative as the eps weeklies are depicting tbh. Give me a solid PAC and a neg AO which is where we look to be headed and I will take my chances with the nao flexing and moderating every few days. If anything the quasi-transient neg NAO look may actually be more of a benefit this season.

    Eta: I am not seeing the pattern breakdown you are referencing...maybe a final reload before teleconnections lock in thru the mid/end of Feb but not a breakdown. I see what u r saying about the LR ens and how everything has been unicorns and fairies at 15 days but if you go back to late Dec ens we are now where we were progged to be at that time. We look to finally be done chasing our tail as the SSWE effects are beginning to be felt and the SOI is settling toward a more stable and Nino favorable index level.

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just had a chance to look over the weeklies and try to match them up with some of the other LR guidance ideas and teleconnections. Long story short as to not repeat what psu, bob, and others have already mentioned in detail.....I am all in for the 2nd half of winter. Can we fail? That's a possibility no matter what but with the constant looks and support that we are seeing chances are low. Next 10 days continue to step towards deep winter then the bottom is going to drop out in a good way Jan 20+......kudos psu and others if this works as advertised. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    5 hours ago, The Iceman said:

    LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter...

    Most of the time we tend to agree but gotta disagree with you here. After a very brief reload in the PAC and up top next week the crap looks like it is going to hit the fan. Aside from the GFS family of models I dont think there is a single piece of modeling suggesting the good pattern breaks down. In fact it only looks to improve and there are textbook KU looks showing up more than once over the next 4-6 weeks. 

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