Ralph Wiggum

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!

1 hour ago, LVwhiteout said:

Ralph - Wasn't this supposed to develop off the Virginia Capes?

Looked like it for several runs then overnight trended off S NJ/ACY.

Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo.

Bomb Cyclone

Bomb Cyclone....seriously?

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Positively tilted trough is no bueno in these parts.  

Feb 1983 storm had an oblong shaped positive tilt fyi. Was a phase job so a different beast but you are painting with a broad brush. Sometimes they can work out. And with a power block crazy things tend to happen.

23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The primary into the lakes in early December is always going to be majority rain for us. Why people are falling for errant runs of the snow happy GFS I don't know. 

  

@RedSky is out on this potential....noted

Euro came south with the ULL pass in a beautiful spot much like the GEFS.  EPS should be interesting. Looks like a 13-14 situation where models are playing catchup irt surface as things progress along. Again, if the ULL trends and H5 height adjustments continue at HL the surface will catch up to the upper levels. Really good trends today and wouldnt be surprised to start seeing some weenie runs over the next few days. If this were winter climo I would be all in. Going to be interesting tho with a dynamic energetic ull situation so anything could happen. Would be foolish to just assume this will be one particular precip type at this point. Potential is there for some surprises.

12 z keeping positive trends going with better ridging up top. GFS op surface for kicks and stuff:

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS with a more wintry initial thump at 108. NW areas holding on at 114.

Liking the continuing trends on guidance so far with more ridging/blocking up top forcing things S.

Looks like the potential is there across guidance for an event Dec 1-2. Going to come down to HL ridging/blocking as the ULL bowls East. Strong enough ridging to the N from S Central Canada across SE Greenland (bridge) could force far enough S to redevelop in a favorable spot. Ens and ops are starting to key on decent ridging with mslp developing off of VA Beach. WAA band could provide snow to begin then need to see how things evolve irt how the coastal will play out. Looks rather dynamic. More later gotta run:

I know it's the icon but big jump on where it develops the mslp irt dec 1-2:

Jackson 5 lol. Love watching him. Amazing.

Weeklies just tossed out the idea of a warm december fwiw and instead try to reestablish HL blocking and CPF. This December is going to be different. @RedSky let me know when you're ready to enter the time machine. $10k no refunds and no coming back 

I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted. 

28 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Three or four trackable events when event one is a week away and uncertain, come on man we need pics of that hot tub time machine lol

 

So when do we track? Under 36 hours? Cut us a break Red. 

Anyway, getting skeptical of this ++ao that is forecast to have staying power. All ens break it down quickly and most now have a strong cpf established first 10 days of December. I'm thinking the ao spike is the PV reflection as it is splitting at the trop level.and migrating across the N Pole to Hudson bay and farther south. Once it splits and crosses that region should see the ao go negative again. Will likely fluctuate thru winter but we are seeing good signs in the right HL spots over and over.

13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Biggest snowfall ever on a model = no silly

Coldest days ever on a model = fools no way

Most positive AO ever on a model = yeah I can buy that

Facts!

15 hours ago, RedSky said:

Growing evidence of a mild December after an initial chilly start with a strong +AO. Nothing like wasting cold in November.

 

 

At least 3 trackable events, possibly 4 thru the first week or so  of December and some people are already way down the line writing December off and looking to January lol? Some things never change I guess. Peak climo isnt here yet so anything before say the 3rd week of Dec is a bonus. With that said I'm not 'expecting' snow with any of these threats....just saying there are possibilities worth tracking. Definitely not a shutout look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload of the current pattern as has been well-advertised, but the background state of this coming winter is already showing itself.

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's the same result as the previous run. Where is the potential? Pretty cold. And pretty dry. And no snow. If that time frame is not going to produce, which at this point it appears it wont, who cares if h5 looks a bit "prettier" this run than last.

Because a "prettier" look could translate into better teleconnections down the road. Would you rather it see it headed the opposite direction or trending to the good?

^^

neutral/positive PNA...check

EPO ridge...check

Ridging into Greenland...check

Ridge poking into AO region...check

Trof digging in the OV...check

Weak quasi 50/50 low...check

I can live with this potential.

Ridge bridge type thang on the EPS:

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know you know this, but ops at range tend to do this.

Of course. But that was a bigger jump than normal and a hint as to where the EPS may go. 

Just some minor run-to-run changes:

Euro really grabbing onto what the GEFS was hinting at ie keeping the ridging near Greenland a little longer. Not only does it hold onto it, the Euro strengthens it. Not the greatest position but a testament to how changes can be sudden and this is only 8 days out. Also note some of the EPO ridge feeding the AO region. Could still go either way lots of uncertainty. I do like the persistent ridging in the N Atlantic feeding part of the NAO region.

33f in Warminster with moderate snow. Light accumulation on grass.

Dont think I would want to be one of the folks tethered to the balloons at the Macy's T-Giving Parade. Looks breezy