Ralph Wiggum

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Check out the GFS#2 at hour 330 for more hilarity as a southern ice storm is snow to mix here with the low exiting east off hatteras but that is only after another snow ice event in the south just days after our next rainstorm lol lock it in

 

GFS and FVR2D2 have been performing horribly for about the past 10-14 days. I read an article tying that in with the govt shutdown and lack of Calibrated data being entered but I cannot confirm 100%.

New Euro weeklies are out and are solid teleconnection pattern thru the end of February. They have not backed off whatsoever and in fact look the best that I have seen in a very long time. Extreme neg NAO, neg AO, pos PNA, pos EPO, extremely active stj, displace PV wobbling around near Hudson Bay. At the surface BN to well BN temp regime across much of the Eastern US. 

Pattern is about as loaded as you can get. Not sure how much if any fluctuation or modification we get over the next 4 weeks at the very least. 

As far as the Jan 18-22 threat I love the looks of the ens with good hp along and just S of Canadian border with LP mean in the lower Tenn Valley then off the Carolina Coast. 

Fasten your seat belts we are in for a wild ride the 2nd half of winter!

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Looks alright I'll wait for Ralph's opinion before I jump in

I approve

Remember when we had a stretch of model runs like this a few days ago irt this weekend's system?

I know it wont go down like this but only during this winter of 2019 during peak climo with a bitter cold air mass just to the N and a near perfect storm track would we get a look like this:

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

You can feel there will be one big storm coming probably in February that will prevent an unmitigated disaster

 

3rd week of Feb big 10"+ snow event as the overwhelmingly cold and dry pattern relaxes. Melts in two days as temps rollercoaster up to mid 60s. Then cool and wet thru mid/late April. That's the gut feel I'm getting nothing scientific to it just thinking out loud. 

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

we score like 1 out of every 10 epic patterns

I totally get it.....epic patterns have a higher potential to produce an epic storm as opposed to a meh pattern. Less likely to see an epic storm in a meh pattern tho it does happen. Quality vs quantity I suppose. But like u said Ji paraphrasing as I cant vouch for those numbers verbatim, not every epic pattern will produce. It's like playing the nickel slots (meh pattern) and hoping to hit a big cash-out vs going into the high rollers lounge where you are going to drop more in but your payouts will normally be higher tho not as frequently. 

I seriously doubt this will happen because we rarely, if ever, fail....but could you imagine this board if after all this hype and unicorn LR patterns it was too much of a good thing and we cashed in very minimally in the end, if at all? 

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I honestly don't know what you are looking at with your assessment.  If we get an over amplified trough we COULD have a cutter...or something COULD go OTS but you were talking about the NAO going positive and the trough in the west and I see nothing except an oddball op run at range showing anything like that.  

GEFS

Was thinking earlier how I personally categorize winter storms...plus I'm bored. For me there are the nuisance c-2" types followed by 2-7". Next bar is 7-14". Then the rare stuff 14-24" .... and the creme de la creme 24"+

I guess when I'm tracking that's how I break them down in my own mind. The c-2 is like cool it's going to snow but not really worth me getting overly excited over or losing sleep. Then the 2-7" the interest level is there but again I'm not running out for milk and bread and getting all googly eyed like Gritty. Some sleep may be lost to model watching but not much. Whether a 2-4/3-6/4-7 they all generally feel the same for me. Gotta shovel but not worth putting unnecessary energy into.

Things improve significantly when we enter MECS range which for me is 7-14"....again there isnt a whole lots of diff between whether I pull the snowblower out for the bottom or top of that range. The impact and personal reward is basically the same and well worth the hours of tracking and energy put in.

14-24" of HECS is a dream but again I dont dwell on whether its low end or high end of that range. It's a general categorical range that is not very often seen so I just savor the heck out of it. Much sleep is lost to tracking especially as lead times shrink.

Then the 24"+ BECS there really just isnt words for. Alot of coffee is consumed sometimes alot of booze and sleep deprivation is real. My wife has used the term 'deliriously snow-drunk' before.

Guess my point to this is I dont get all caught up in the over analyzing (especially with lower total ranges) between whether one model shows 1-3" but the other shows 2-4" etc. Just like if a model showed 6-10" vs 8-12". I crack up when seeing posts analyzing every fraction of an inch difference. In the grand scheme do those nuances really make a world of difference (for Joe public not pro forecasters)? Maybe they do and I'm the oddball lol....I wont debate that. 

So does anyone else categorize their forecast snow amounts any similar to this? Ie base them on impacts?

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like the GEFS showing the broad conus trough and lower heights across SoCal. This is much better than the amplified and more narrow eastern trough. These height and pressure panels look great. Sprawling highs to the north. Active southern stream undercutting. 

 

That is one heck of a broad strung out trof basically coast to coast. Yeah I guess we can hope to cash in on the usual incremental system to hopefully pad totals. Maybe if this general look continues when the extreme setup begins to pull back we will score on something bigger in the form of a SWFE with really good overrunning or something along those lines. I really think any wound up system is going to mess us up still either cutting or being just too far off the coast. The Jan 19-22 looks decent but I honestly would rather not see a massive wound up system based solely on seasonal history so far tho if u r hoping to hit the jackpot I guess u roll the dice. I would take the look Bob posted with sprawling high and strung out waves giving several minor threats but that's just me. I think those types are our best chances this season until things relax later in Feb.

Long range looks weak after the Jan 19-22 window. Need to cash in before we head cold/dry then signs of the mean trof redeveloping back out west as epo ridge gets displaced westward and the nao pops back into positive territory.

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

95 is so close to being in the game as well. Another little tick N and it's on.

Could also argue that any little ticks S take us all pretty much out of the game but these stj systems even tho sheared out *usually* correct N a few hairs under 72 hrs so we shall see. 

16 minutes ago, Bliz299 said:

Excuse me....did you actually say Cape May? Just some light-heartedness. I'd be thrilled, but I'm always ready to share too. So far looking pretty good.

Been hammering this home for a few days.....double doink up this way but SNJ should make it thru the goalposts. 

Eta: Still expecting c-2" type here with some 3" lollis  closer to S PA and I95. S and E do better tho with this event.

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 Check out the gfs for any and to the south for this weekend

Wow

Wut?

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

ECM is .80" for all give or take a little, light years better than the Ukie .01"

 

 

There's a reason this is called the double doink storm.

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Hmmm... 00z EURO has a small, but closed dual level h5 low at 48

Daughters?

Jan 18-21 period looks rather intriguing based on teleconnections and energy phasing in historically favorable areas. OP guidance like CMC starting to spit out some fun possibilities. Ensembles are supporting something 'impactful' during this period as well and have been for a little while now.

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

dont look at CMC 240

Meh

0z CMC and GFS hit S NJ hard 5-10" on both.

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

18z gefs increased the snow means yet again. Several solutions that show wsw level 4-8"+ snows especially in SNJ

SNJ is probably a lock especially for the second doink. Not sure the goalposts have been positioned just yet...another day. Remember this double doink keeps getting delayed and the bigger threat ie the second part is still very much in question. Should see some accus tho Saturday from the waa stuff across sothern pa at the very least 

4 hours ago, Birdbean said:

The double doink storm?

Yep

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

no it's a miller a but if it develops too late it could miss areas up here thats all.  The storms that missed us to the southeast the last 2 Januarys were miller a storms.  Not every miller a becomes a HECS for us.  

Looks Miller b or hybrid to me with a triple point and forced to redevelop around that strong HP. 

12z suite turning this into a Miller B and SE PA essentially gets the double doink....very little with the waa then misses the second part as the coastal develops and heads NE. S NJ does best with this look. Things will change and shift still thru tomorrow then we fine tune. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

"WE"?  lol no thanks

That map is a 'double-doink' for a few of us psu.