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Ralph Wiggum

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Posts posted by Ralph Wiggum

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

    It gave some hope at the end.  All is not lost.  

    I know it reemerged at the end of run but was nice to see the ridge N of Hawaii weaken substantially in the mid range which to me is more important than a 384 hr prog.  Start hammering that PAC pattern little by little. Still plenty of time its not even Jan 1 technically. 

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just my $.02 but from my reading and research lately there are SSWEs going on in tandem at both poles. This is apparently a rather rare event. Couple that with the near-record SSW SD event in our hemisphere and imho this is like a powder keg with a lit fuse. We are entering unchartered atmospheric conditions and to me it is clear why the models are struggling this severely and showing some rather unique and odd looks. Something is going to give over the next 2-3 weeks because I dont think anyone knows what to expect from these happenings at both poles and how they will effect this patterns globally. I think there is a 50/50 chance we either head into a highly anomalous pattern in the East which favors a 'cancel winter' type pattern OR something very wintry that we are all going to look back on and use as a measuring stick for future seasons. I just have a hunch things are going to bust wide open in a big way and it is really going to be worth the wait. Like I said tho its damn near impossible to say which way but some highly anomalous weather is coming to the US in a few weeks with wild swings and a tight gradient/boundary. I am holding out hope and I normally would have tossed the towel in by now. Heck even my winter outlook argues for much BN snowfall but somewhere in the East is going to pay for this run we r having....the atmosphere plays a balancing act it always has and always will and no I'm not referencing 'atmospheric memory' either lol.

    • Like 1

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

    The GFS may even be worse than the Euro now.  Lol.

    And just to point out even if u r living and dying with the ops run the trof in the west that has been there is your big take away this run? Not the flattening almost entirely of the ridge n of HI? 

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, LP08 said:

    I know one thing...I’m tired of seeing this look in the extended....

     

     

    923DCC53-BACA-43A8-9EA6-EFBF47F61EFB.png

    Then stop unicorn hunting in the extended. :P

    I dont mean that disrespectfully because I am as guilty as anyone here. But there are signals showing up in the medium range which were/are the steps we were expecting headed into  January. With such large changes coming if model A misjudged something in the short range then its errors will be exponential in the long range. That kind of goes without saying...I know. But my point is we have seen this happen before and 9 out of 10 times many of us get caught looking at 384 ens means and seeing the major differences and overanalyze when what we really need to see of importance is happening right in front of us. I am extremely optimistic moving forward and while I dont think the GEFS are 100% correct I do think this modeling system has a better grasp on what is occurring.

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    In addition I believe we are in or just entering a period of time where some major changes are starting to pop up right under our noses. MJO is moving, SOI is negative, PV split is starting to show in the med range. We have gotten into looking too far into the future for the 'full pattern change' when things are happening now that are affecting the LR and this is generally when something pops up and catches us by surprise. Just my $.02

    • Like 1

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    When the models are struggling this severely and bouncing every run, in my experience this is the sign of a major pattern change on the not too distant horizon. There will be a major change but will it be beneficial? I believe it will but obviously just speculatuon and tbd irt specifics. 

    • Like 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Newman said:

    You see the Euro? And I agree that around the 10th is our next shot. The 6z GFS almost looked like 2/5/10.

    And like someone waved a magic wand poof....good pattern look all but gone. I'm sure it will be back and that period still has a threat but it is comical and frustrating at the same time to see the flopping in the models simultaneously from run to run.

    • Like 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    1 hour ago, wkd said:

    A week or so ago most knowledgeable mets were saying the significant pattern change would probably not occur until the middle of January. I don't see anything that should change that outlook. People are losing patience in all the nearby subforums. I like that most of our storms are SS in origin. Just need some blocking. Just like last March it will happen. It's going to snow. Bigly.

    I think today we are right where we said we wanted to be 2 weeks ago which is starting to see slight transitioning in the pattern and also seeing some fantasy storms in the long range finally with stuff to track. MJO forecasts slowly coming around as well tho the eps mjo still entering the cod where the GEFS MJO gets to 7 and stalls. Either one is better than being stuck in phase 6 so these are all positives moving forward imo.

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    IMO the differences between the Eps and GEFS are largely MJO driven. Eps makes sense if the wave only gets to phase 6 and then dies in the COD. GEFS makes sense with a continued progression into phases 6 and 7. And it’s not weenieish to say the GEFS has been much better with the amplitude and progression, or lack of it, over the last few weeks vs the Eps. But as of yesterday at least, GEFS showed the wave getting to phase 7 with strong amplitudes while the Eps again killed it in phase 6. 

    GEFS essentially all get to 7 then stall there. That would be one of the scenarios we have been hoping for anyway. Let's just get to 7 first tho.

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Next and most intriguing threat window Jan 8-10. Major teleconnections lining up rather favorably with nice looking PAC and decent transient (for now) ATL side with energy undercutting the region and an active NS. First time in a long time all 3 major global ops (and ens) show snow for the region....maybe since November. Finally seeing some positive changes down the road as well.

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