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Ralph Wiggum

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Posts posted by Ralph Wiggum

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    I worry that we get too good of blocking leading to suppression...that's pretty much the CFS. The SSW may end  up being a curse more than a blessing in that we may go from average cold and rain to f***ing cold and dry. A lot of times we don't score until the epic pattern breaks down. If that's the case, may not be until february...

    There are quite a few clues that are showing the PV setting up shop in SE Canada and completely overwhelming the pattern with cold but very dry for us. CFS doesnt even return anyone from the Mid Atl on Northward to N/AN precip until April which would be a crummy cold wet spring pattern. Again this is all speculation based on modeling but yeah, unless the PV split aligns just right it could be quite a problem and negate the El Nino effects basically. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    1 hour ago, RedSky said:

    0z ECM says aaaaand it's gone...

    They don't do football in europe I don't get the mid range Christmas Lucy

     

     

    They just started nfl games in London a few years ago so the Lucy football yank is still in its infancy stage over there but I see the learning curve is likely very small.

    • Haha 1

    December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    He used to go pretty in depth with analysis. Def a few steps above an average viewer's knowledge base. I loved it of course. 

    Out of all the people on twc over the years my favorite will always be Dave Schwartz. That dude had the strangest sense of humor and it was awesome. Cracked me up. Kinda hit me a little hard when he passed away. 

    I remember Schwartz for calling out weather conditions in some of the most obscure areas in the country. "Hello friends in Chengwatana, Minnesota where we hit a balmy minus 15 farenheit today for our high temperature" lol.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    Ukie and Icon have a wave on the 24th that would be light snow for most. CMC has something on the 25th but it takes a poor track and would likely be rain. GFS is really the only model with nothing. Several GEFS members have a few inches in that period though. Also promising is roughly half have some measurable snow in the next 10 days. Something to watch at least... 

    I made a post in the Mid Atl forum a few days ago about how it's funny when most people "punt the rest of December" we have seen the most threats showing up but when an epic pattern shows up we cant buy a snow shower lol. I know it's a different location but still. This period has been on my radar for at least 10 days now. Doesnt mean it will produce but yeah something to watch.

    • Like 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    NAM has a dual-low scenario now with the late week system and this is something several ens members had been hinting at. Takes first low off the GA Coast then NNE just West of Philly while a second low develops over GA. You can see at 500mb how there is energy just pouring into the trof between 72 and 84 hours+

    What a difference in the evolution of this over the past few days:

    namconus_ref_frzn_eus_50.png

    namconus_z500_vort_eus_53.png

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    This will likely still end up as a cutter but will be curious to see how far West it cuts and when/where a coastal transfer takes place. At one time this was running West of the Mississippi River and  not even redeveloping like a Miller B. Then models moved to a transfer over new England. Now some guidance has it South of us (at least some ens and one ops) much like the weekend storm we just experienced. Interesting?

    • Like 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Regarding the Thurs-Fri system you can see a notable move to more of a SE shift in track as we have witnessed with a few systems this fall as lead time has shortened. NAM at range has the slp SE of Apalachicola FL whereas the GFS and FV3 have it running the Mississippi River. Of note, the Euro is also closer in general placement to the NAM at similar times as are the NAVGEM and UKMET vs the GFS family. Ensembles show clustering of low placement well S and E of mean center also but once we hit 90 hours there is a muddled look between which camp is correct though again, looking at the trends over past 3-5 days it has been to push the system farther S and E. 

    Curiously, the NAVGEM has the slp track over Cape May which is somewhat not surprising given the model biases but is still fitting in with the general trends of more ridging at higher lat and more of a SE track as lead time shrinks. Might be one of the few repetitive trends that we will see this winter and *maybe* that NAO ridging, even if transient, pops up more often than not and can help us out as the season moves forward.

     

    ecmwf_T850_seus_5.png

    gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png

    namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png

    navgem_mslp_pcpn_seus_14.png

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Shame 850s are way above normal prior but the storm trend cant be denied. Even the last frame (the most recent run) the positive tilt to the pna ridge would want to adjust the system farther East. Weird to see models driving the slp right into the block almost due N though I am seeing signs of a Miller b transfer on recent runs. I suppose there is a weakness that it is trying to work N into:

    gfs_z500a_us_fh114_trend.gif

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Btw this is so close to being something 'better'. Doubt it happens but did look at run to run trends and I am seeing better blocking in the NAO region and the slp pulling out of the 50/50 area has been slightly slower to budge each run. That damn full lat WAR kills us tho. If the SE ridge wasnt drawn into the NAO the system would be allowed to undercut the area and *maybe* be more wintry. Big bomb of a storm tho so who knows....the trend has been to slide these sw's more S and E so we'll see. Havent seen a gyre like this tho yet this fall:

    gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

    Just to be clear I am not saying a big cold or snows before the end of the year....but some below some above and biased a bit colder than normal. This reminds me so much of folks back in 2014 telling me that they saw no signs of winter coming....but with the warm PDO with a Neg EPO to follow combined with the strat warming event all coming together - I just don't see how we don't see some significant cold and storminess by that 2nd week of the New Year. Of course I could be wrong (am I am an amateur hobbyist) but to me all the signs are pointing to cold coming or as JB would always say it is delayed but not denied! 

    Just playing devils advocate as their isn't a whole heck if alot to discuss otherwise.....but basically what you're saying is that it will probably get colder during the coldest climo time of the entire year? Isnt that the same as someone suggesting it is going to get warmer with afternoon thunderstorms in mid July after a cool June? :devilsmiley:

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

    Gotta like the trend on the EURO....it has as expected started to move toward a colder solution for the last week of the year...

     

    eps_control_t2anom_by7_conus_61(39).png

    Euro op, GEFS, GEPS all suggest otherwise. Not saying they r right but definitely not any overwhelming support for the control run u posted. Mid Jan thru mid/late Feb is our time if we r going to cash in this season.....at least based on past history and climo. 

    • Like 1
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