Ralph Wiggum

I'm going on 35+ years doing this as a hobby and can tell you those epic looks I used to chase like a unicorn back when I was in my 20s and 30s usually 9 out of 10 times dont pay off. They get here and we scratch our heads saying why is New England or SC getting crushed and not us? Its funny how that works. When I see an epic look now I pay more attention to when it is going to relax. We will have chances but if we r ging to cash in big I am betting that wont happen until Feb or even March. 

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

What’s your assessment, Ralph? If you think we already have a sense about how the year will play out, then why don’t you tell us what that sense is so that we don’t have to guess?

Already did that in my seasonal outlook. I'm on the other side of many of the epic and much AN snowfall outlooks at least irt to my home region. Outlook is in the philly forum from back in Oct if interested. And hey I'm not cancelling winter its not even mid december. I'm saying these locked in epic patterns dont repeatedly produce. It's the breakdown or relax when we generally score. And if we r going to wait for a breakdown then the monthlies say we are waiting to later in winter which actually fits Nino climo. There will be chances probably many BUT do we cash in?

Getting the fork ready to stick in this latest threat later today.

Really dont like the pattern tendencies we are seeing repeated. LR guidance again showing what a few of us feared....cutters and tucked lows followed by cold and dry. We hardly score during epic looking patterns it's usually when they break down. Scary part is the epic look on the weeklies is there thru Feb. Does that mean we have to wait until mid Feb to cash in if at all like a typical Nino climo?

Not in a panic as I never had high hopes going in and it's not even mid Dec yet but I really dont feel good about the pattern tendencies and where we look to be going. I know someone will chime in and say "but this looks different going forward"....but does it really? In terms of actual real weather, for us does it?

I really almost wish the weeklies and monthlies were showing a 'meh' pattern and not some souped up epic looking cant fail appearance. I think alot of folks are setting themselves up for disappointment this year. You can already get a sense how this year is going to play out if you've been following the general pattern and tendencies since mid summer aside from the fluke Nov tease. 

Was just about to post that about the NAM. Yep we r going the wrong direction. Still a window but even with a North shift things may have gone too far South already. Good tuneup for tracking anyway. Euro weeklies say we r in for an active run. Hopefully tho this doesnt become a pattern this year. Cold, dry, and suppressed storm patterns suck. Would rather get cutters with waa thumps to rain.

37 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Ok, do I get a clue?

CRAS meso has a classic setup with a 50/50 moving into place, stj energy undercutting split flow out west, developing +pna, 2 lobes of energy diving into the midwest...looks alot like the NAM. Again....right or wrong who knows? I try and never take the CRAS verbatim at face value but due to it's high resolution it can sniff out changes before some of the globals. Boxing Day storm is a prime example.

In any event some of our energy will be moving  onshore out West over the next 24-30 hours. If we dont get some shifts on the globals by 0z tomorrow night or the mesos start backing down then it's time to be concerned. Still have a window to see positive moves tho. Seen crazier things happen and it wont take major changes aloft still. 

15 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Other than the 12k nam? 

Yes

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

From what I've seen, local TV outlets are saying little and already reached a verdict..."storm will scoot by to our south...we may see nothing more than some clouds".

Ah cool. I guess I'll go ahead and lock up this thread since the all clear has been sounded.

Ironically another mesoscale model that goes out to 84 is also honking if not more so. Impressive signal!

I know it's the NAM but it continues to honk. I really think the mesos are going to handle this differently when in range. Whether right or wrong tbd

Not sure if it has been posted earlier but GEFS have a cluster of members just off the coast of VA CMC-like while the other cluster is well East. All or nothing event incoming??

GFS crept N more important changes aloft

Still seeing changes especially with the pna ridge. CMC still right on the doorstep.....snow axis is looking better. 

Weather.us

I for one am looking forward to some good Namming in the coming days. More confidence in getting nam'd with threats than most of us do in forecasting the actual storm. Being Nam'd is pretty much a given and is increased during Ninos with the active stj. 

I know I know....its the NAM at range but if you loop the entire run of 500mb you can see it is trying to move the entire trof which is causing the confluence and squashed concerns and closer to a 50/50 position. Verbatim and just my opinion but the NAM looks solid for those wanting the N trend. Again it's the NAM at range and just my .02$

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

I haven't looked at it, but the SE crew seems not real pleased with their NAM extrapolation activities.

NAM at 84 has the PNA ridge in the perfect spot. Upstream the NS vort (at least one of them) is trying to race out of the way.

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

They’re sh*ts, aren’t they? Good Christ...

Mine is 7. Keep them away from LOLs, Pikmi pops , and YouTube particularly Jojo Siwa tho there are several others that also make me want to smash my cranium with a self inflicted sledgehammer thrust.

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us

THE January 96 storm or one later in that month? There were quite a few storms iirc.

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Someone in South Jersey will probably see a couple inches today. Very small area though

Yepper....all models have a narrow band norlun down there. OC to Seaside somewhere in there.

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Boy that should scream for a nice 12z run today you would think but look what the gfs did at 6z...feels like to me we may be seeing the northern and southern side of the storm envelope with the real bullseye to be figured out now. Of course anything coming from me is just anacdotel and not analytical 

I dunno....there is still quiet the lead time for this. If we were at 72 hours I would agree with the envelope. Seeing the changes aloft even with the 6z gfs makes me think we arent even close still to hammering this down and surprises are coming. We haven't even been in range to get Nammed yet so yeah, there's that. 

120-144 hours to go still....an eternity in weather forecasting. Feels like we've been tracking for a week already. In all seriousness tho this threat window has been hinted at since right after Thanksgiving. Rather amazing quite honestly.

EPS honking

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Icon moved waaaaaay north

Navgem way north 6z....good sign