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Ralph Wiggum

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Posts posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. 4 hours ago, RedSky said:

    Looking better for the Weather World call a couple weeks ago for a period of warmth possibly record so in the first half of December. I hope it's 75F.

     

     

     

    Curious...what is their call for the 2nd half of Dec? Colder I presume like the majority of other outlets I have read? Most data I am looking at has us averaging AN generally thru at least mid Dec. BN days are one and done mostly. Pattern looks continual.

    gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.png

    gem-ens_T850a_us_65.png

    • Like 1
  2. 4 minutes ago, Newman said:

    It's the Pacific that's killing us right now heading into the first week of December. 

    The PAC jet extension is breaking down the west coast ridging extensively:

    gfs_uv250_npac_17.thumb.png.4e7db17c7ddee583ebe09d0553b15d09.png

    That kills any chances for a snowstorm for the 1st to the 5th.

    Then the jet extension relaxes and we should have a better opportunity around the 7th-12th time frame:

    gfs_uv250_npac_35.thumb.png.a88f415592c59f32ac45734a2f66155c.png

    Newest GFS shows the chances for a snowstorm around the 6th-7thgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.thumb.png.d14b917af85e09bb3ae34424c77de13f.png:

     

     

    I would look more at trends on the ens as opposed to a D+10 prog on a model that is to be retired in January due to inconsistencies and errors but that's just me. 

  3. On 11/24/2018 at 9:50 AM, Newman said:

    ...and the SE ridge kicks up. 

    I keep reading posts that as long as the AO is negative we will score BIG this winter. Not sure I totally agree with that theory but at least the LR ens show that anyway. Zonal flat ridge across USA with mean trof out west tho? Blech.

    gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

    • Like 1
  4. 14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

    Train of rain is the 6z GFS! At least we are still seeing storms! Getting the cold to align is a problem. 

     

    Willing to wager when the cold comes we go dry and suppressed. Not that this is really going out on a limb or anything but it is virtually inevitable. However, if we can get the cold snaps even with suppression we should cash in as the rubber band snaps back, so to speak ie the pattern relaxes.  Again, nothing earth shattering there but people need to remember cold outbreaks usually dont mean snowstorms.....its when it relaxes we tend to cash in. This season is going to require extreme patience by some imo.....the outlook I posted in the other subforum is leaning towards a cutter type of pattern overall so people are going to freak when we r getting cutter upon cutter then it goes cold and dry. Patience is going to be more important than usual this season especially given the early Nov tease we had. I think alot of folks are expecting wall to wall wintry weather based on this alone.

  5. For balance, the GFS family is faster to knock down the SE ridge thus more seasonal during the same time period so *maybe* this is a case of the Euro holding energy back in the SW and Plains and pumping that Eastern ridge in response (in error/bias?). Unsure if this was ever fixed with the Euro upgrades or not so just thinking out loud. 

    As others have said....volatile pattern. Could be quite the roller coaster ride as we move thru December. 

  6. Glancing at the overnight op models and LR ens basically status quo for this time of year as we go forward thru about the 2nd week of Dec. I realize and dont ever really expect much wintry weather before Christmas usually but what really concerns me is that when the NAO goes negative on the ops and ens we are still ending up with cutters and storms heading to our N and W. Maybe this is something that will change as we move further along in time and we can get redevelopment farther S and E...not sure. Just noting that these looks arent exactly working out yet timing-wise ie when the PAC looks good the ATL looks bad and vice versa. I'm not sure one or the other will do it for us durung this Nino year. We *probably* are going to need both sides working in tandem. With that said tho it is funny how we have had more frozen past 2 years during mediocre patterns and have basically had nothing to show besides cold temps during 'epic' teleconnection indices. I guess those epic looks are more for producing KU storms which goes to show just how difficult they are to produce.

    • Like 1
  7. EPS depict the concerns I had going into the LR....neg NAO retrogrades and develops into a mid lat ridge centered near the Miss river then progresses  into a quasi SE Ridge with trof developing out West. Of course this isn't the be all end all for winter....probably just means we wait a little later into the month for a pattern reload which isn't necessarily a terrible thing. There is plenty of cold air building across the top which if the strat PV consolidation and progs hold any weight spell a bitter cold outbreak on our side of the N hemisphere somewhere around the 3rd week of Dec. 

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

  8. 51 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    Hope everyone had a great Turkey day. Got down to 15 F last night.. 

     I paid the piper for adventuring in the snow without my winter gear last Thursday. Have had the Flu since sunday...awful stuff but finally have gotten around to catching up on the upcoming period.  As Newman posted above, the upcoming pattern does look very volitile. Great word for this pattern. I think we'll likely be at or even slightly below normal, but the storm track does not look favorable at all for this period. I see many snow or ice to rain events for 95 for the first half of december(which is good for around here, we can have decembers with no even borderline events). This looks like a good pattern for LV though imo. Maybe not snow, but with the amount of cold air near by and already in place, even warm systems will have a chance at frozen. I think the 222 corridor N and W may do well the first half of december.

    Have a feeling we are going to be playing the LR tease game for a while on  guidance. Pattern and blocking was looking really good in the LR for a while but now we are seeing signs that the pattern will be short-lived and we *might* be headed into a typical Nino-ish December after the first few days. Unclear on this though as signals are mixed but if we go with history and decadal oscillation patterns one would tend to side with the -NAO transient look rolling over on itself with a possible trof setting up in the West and a flat ridge in response in the East. Again purely speculation but with the variance in the ens in the LR and how we are already seeing a backing off on some of the high lat blocking looks, leaning towards a pattern reversal as we move past very early Dec. Like I posted elsewhere tho and agree with Paul, chances will be there for a period and maybe even a surprise at small lead times but overall keep in mind it is still fall and we have been spoiled with bN temps and aN snowfall.....for now.

  9. 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

    You dont have to look in fantasy land for potential possible light to mod events.  This day 7 ish timeframe with a possible  piece of energy following our departing ne low could deliver a chance imo.This is what I'll be keeping 1 eye on. Unless your solely looking KU . Little events pad stats 

    gfs_z500_vort_namer_26.png

    Watching this period also. I dont dislike this look at all....50/50 low, flat Caribbean ridge, energy in the plains undercutting riding N of the GL, more energy sitting in the GOM, ridge popping out West at the right time as an intense ULL crashes into the West Coast. This is an active pattern we are entering which will favor plenty of chances. Most will probably crap the bed but this is the type of setup that we could all get a surprise payout.

  10. 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

    Steve....for those that like winter weather and multiple storm chances this pattern over the next month could not be much better...of course this does not mean we get 20" of snow....as we could easily see a storm or two go up west of the apps and a snow to zr to rn event....but me thinks we will see at least 5 chances of wintry precipitation between now and Christmas. Plenty of tracking ahead!

    Paul there is always a chance. I need to see actual production from the atmosphere to satisfy my snow appetite.

    • Like 1
  11. Quiet in here. Arctic blast for Thanksgiving with sub freezing high temps should make it one to remember. Lows Thursday night low teens. Friday morning gonna be bitterly cold for those early Black Friday shoppers. 

    Pattern looks ok going forward but nothing earth shattering. Maybe we can sneak a shortwave under us and score some light snows late Nov early Dec. Nice storms popping up in the periods I mentioned previously but the first looks warm relatively speaking. Longer range weaken the N Atl and NAO rigging and try to shift the trof out west with flat ringing in the East. Would fit the typical December Nino flip but signals are mixed. I am hearing this Nino is 'different' so I'm not exactly sure what that equates to. Guess we will see.

    Have a nice Thanksgiving everyone!

    • Like 1
  12. Starting to think the Nov 25-30 event is the stage setter for the early Dec (3rd-7th?) larger scale threat that is surfacing on LR guidance. It is noteworthy to see individual shortwaves and systems being depicted on some of the LR ensembles repeatedly.  Generally these features are smoothed out so this definitely merits some attention going forward.

    • Like 2
  13. 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

    The Euro at 240 looks real interesting. 

    Hopefully the ridge developing over the Eastern plains doesnt link up with the fading/retrograding NAO ridge....that would be bad. A mid or full lat ridge centered over the Mississippi River longitude would basically equate to the pattern rolling over on itself. It's a long way out but keep that 50/50 there, keep the NAO ridge in tact or at least separate, and keep the bowling ball coming across and we might be in business. Like you said.....interesting. 

    • Haha 1
  14. 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    In regards to your reservations about early starts...

    Now, I am not sure how closely we can evaluate/compare Philly vs. Baltimore annual snow totals, but...I've been looking at the totals going all the way back to 1883-84...Specifically, I've been zeroing in on November snowfall! And from what I can see, getting an inch or two in November resulted in a good or great winter more often than a dud...

    And even if it does flip after like mid-December...given how many weak-moderate El Niño years hit average snowfall or above...would that really be a concern? (unless we had a highly positive AO or something)

    Also, you mentioned the good looks that didn't materialize last year...now, ya have to wonder if the result would have been different in a Niño, lol But you're right...LR looks aren't everything, but you do have different elements at play this season vs. last season, of course... 

    But at the very least, the probability that we go into December with a -AO and -NAO look seems to be increasing! :D (especially if the LR guidance continues to show it by the end of this week!). So we shall see (and of course...around the mid-Atlantic, ya always gotta watch with tempered excitement until the storms actually get here, lol)

    If ever there were a season where my winter outlook had a chance to bust severely, this is probably the one. Like I posted in the final few sentences of my outlook earlier in this thread, much will hinge on how the N Atl blocking (NAO) takes shape. I will repeat this idea again....we will have our storms and moisture and we will have the cold outbreaks given the typical nature of Nino years but generally the i95 corridor's fate is determined by the NAO. The looks going forward on some of the ens as we enter late Nov and early Dec are good ones. Neg NAO is there on the progs. It us whay we want to see if you like snow. It is whether this feature can hold for most of the winter or if we see an el Nino driven reversal with the pattern rolling over on itself which is what will determine how the winter plays out in our sub forum. Fingers are crossed. Some ens hold the neg NAO thru the run others are fading it out quickly. Time will tell. 

  15. 2 hours ago, Newman said:

    Way-out-there GEFS map showing the potential heading into December.

    f384.thumb.png.88b43970e1bca9926a37c2fd797e14ee.png

    PAC looks good, Arctic looks good, Atlantic is blah. The brief NAO tank that is being advertised for the last week in Nov is looking more and more transient with the Atl side rolling over on Itself as December begins with a progressive look in the East. Maybe we can time something right for a quick hitter during the period you posted? Or maybe we get an Archambault system last week of Nov as NAO flips from neg to positive? The cold air shouldn't be a major issue based on these progs. We could certainly have worse looks. First things first tho, I like the Nov 25-30 period for a threat. 

  16. 3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

    Looking back, there's a pretty good correlation between good winters and November snowfall in the Philadelphia area. It's honestly almost unanimously the case...

    We must be looking at different areas and research points?

    Eta: I'm looking broadly at moderate el Nino years and novembers qith large snowfalls in philly.

  17. 8 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

    I give them credit for making the effort to do the research and put the thought into it that they do, and I appreciate it. Kind of early to say how the winter will turn out. I'm sure they like snow and a good storm as much as you and I and many others who post here. I like the way things look, but the weather can sure humble you if you get cocky.

    I certainly didnt take his post one way or the other not to mention I would never have stuck my neck out with an outlook if I didnt expect criticisms so its all good I dont take anything here personal.

    Being a snow freak I hope my outlook busts horribly and I95 corridor sees 1500% AN snowfall this year :lol:

    Things look decent going forward for now but I will add just a few things. Last year we had epic patterns and teleconnections show up in the LR....some looks materialized, others didn't, but in terms of real weather, the epic pattern we DID see were more or less duds at the surface for us. Blocking was epic, undercutting energy was there, etc but more times than not it never materialized so while getting the LR players to show up on the field is one thing , getting a storm to workout is whole different ballgame.

    Also, I have some concerns regarding the early starts to winters past and how those early starts correlated to lackluster seasons in Philly proper overall. Couple that with many El Nino years in general in research shows those Decembers mostly provided 180 degree flips in the pattern. Again, I cant say for certain but history and the above factors say December could flip on us to a not-so-favorable look.

    Hoping yesterday's storm is a precursor to the type of winter were are headed into but I have my reservations thus why my outlook is what it is.

  18. 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

    Snow has stopped...sun breaking through. Although the amounts weren't super high, it was a great storm! Especially for Nov...

    Yep. Temp drop must have been due to the 700mb energy pass and heavy snowfall rates for a time this morning. Sun creeping out and temp up to 34 now. Nice early event to shake the rust off. Hopefully the pattern can lock in for the season and doesnt do that reverse flip that we sometimes see with early wintry weather. 

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