Ralph Wiggum

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. 

I agree with this. As always once all energy is better sampled at around 3-4 day lead is when we generally see sudden changes with the inevitable shift. Enough ens members in all 3 families suggesting stay tuned even farther N. Like I keep saying Carolinas up to S NE very much still in play. Minor sw changes yield large surface changes and we deal with this every time we track a phased vs non phased system but this one also has the wrench of a stall and 3rd lobe of energy trying to work into it.

Last 5 consecutive gefs runs clear moves to the north. OP models struggling. Going to come down to minor changes at 500mb. Likely wont be nailed down until the hires models get into 72 hr range imho. Still 5 days or so to go with this one. 

Looks identical to several of the phased EPS members fwiw

CMC now phased and tucked surface low. Amazing what some minor changes aloft do at the surface!

18z GEFS honking...big changes. 50/50 low....check. NAO ridging....check. Potent sw in Miss river valley undercutting confluence as it pulls out....check. Flow backing ahead of sw.....check. Developing PNA ridge.....check. Closed ull in Gulf of Alaska pumping a -epo...check. Nice signal for a deep storm.

5 hours ago, The Iceman said:

While the threat looks bleak right now, we are not far off at 500 mb to seeing this come back.

Not sure I agree that this looks "bleak" at this time with 6 days lead time.....that is an eternity with enough hits on the ens and a potent cyclone literally right on our doorstep on several ops.

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CMC will keep false hope alive so that's good

False or not we take. Looks like euro

Btw my last post was irt how we will probably see 2 camps for a few days with the coming threat and a roller coaster type run of models where subtle 500mb changes will make for big surface changes basically supporting what a few of the knowledgable posters have been saying here . We will probably not see such a short range change as we did 18 years ago but at the current lead time with the next threat I expect sudden shifts from suite to suite until we get within 84 hours or so.

Y'all should take a look at some of the similarities between the coming threat and Jan 2000 irt slp sliding off the SE Coast barely missing a phase and the actual verification where a phase just barely happened and allowed for quite a change in storm track. Sort of what we r seeing between say the Euro camp vs the GFS camp. Some minor timing diffs aloft are creating 2 specific camps....non-phased and southern slider vs phased and farther N and closer to the coast. Not uncommon and the only reason I mention "that" storm is because of similar surface progs and location and how we are now talking possible phase vs non-phase with thus one. I also spent a fair amount of time studying that one and how many of us missed it until about 36 hours or so lead time. 

Not going to post the individual maps but the EPS have many members that are huge hits for our region...several I95 hits as well as several big ticket NW crushers. This is obviously in response to the Euro phasing that we saw overnight. CMC is a phase, Icon was a phase, and the ukmet was looking to go phased as well. There are still timing issues irt to confluence up north and just how far the slp can crawl North but those differences are very much expected at this range. Some minor diffs at 500mb are making for big diffs at the surface. Almost reminds me of a storm we had in Jan 2000 where models missed a final small sw and were showing slp headed off the SE coast but that energy which didnt seem like it would have a large impact caused a phase off of SC and allowed the system to phase and pull almost due N. No I'm not calling for a repeat just noting how at this range without sampling all sw's we are going to see 2 camps between a southern slider and a coastal crawler. Wouldn't let my guard down on this threat especially given the overnight runs. GFS family is in it's own camp for now.

6 minutes ago, Scud said:

06z FV3 stll hopping. Still don't believe 12-18 inches of snow in Darlington SC will verify...

Climatology for early Dec says your beliefs are justified. Not to say HECS dont happen still but I'm right there with you.

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Day 7 UKIE precip and SLP location

I like the quasi-Bermuda high that is keeping the lp from moving due east. I dont like how there isn't much hp to the N of the storm. Euro and looks like ukie are going to be relying mostly on dynamics to keep it cold enough for frozen outside of the mountains.

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Not so much sne

Wouldn't say never on this one. Compare this run to last nights 0z. Slp over Bermuda vs Slp East of Cape Cod. A phasing system changes the entire potential N of the M/D line. Not there yet verbatim but with 6-7 days to go?

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We're in a great spot with lots of wiggle room that will continue through mid week.

Agreed. Places from the Carolinas up thru part of S NE all very much "in the game". 

Definitely a marginal setup but potential is there still....strong 500mb signal.

Euro is a Miller B bomb over Hatteras. North of 12z. Details have plenty of time to nail down but signal still there. UKMET looks identical thru 144 with slightly more SER reflection which would likely yield a farther N look.

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'll take that low placement any winter!

Need someone to mention early December SSTs now and ruin our fun. 

Stacked slp creating its own cold pool on the W and NW flank. More UL energy diving into back and storm stalled. Classic.

There is cold air to the NE but departing. Timed properly drawing on a NE flow would be colder where it mattered. Details to be hammered out over the next 6 days. Saw what I needed to see anyway :-)

Warmish

Euro and Ukie mirroring each other thru 144. HP over PA and slp near NOLA. Looks like classic Miller B setup incoming. 

1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

That they have especially when they come with the low right off the FL coast straight into the Atlantic with no SER/WAR. Gate is wide open for it to run and become fish storm

Depends on which model u r looking at. Fv3, cmc, and icon all have just enough of a SER reflection at the right window to help nudge the surface low farther N than say the gfs which is flat. Been watching this feature for a couple days now.

GFS op and GEFS clear outliers ftm.

8 minutes ago, George BM said:

Sweet thumpanzees in Mamma Mia's nightgown! What the flippity flop a dippery dop model is this?! 

We finally found Doctor Seuss' long lost cousin.

0z Fv3 came N and has us right on the fringe now, CMC is a MECS, Icon is a driving rainstorm, GFS southern slider. Far from being nailed down. Signal still there for a significant storm.