Ralph Wiggum

First flakes of the season just started to fall. Breezy.  Oak tree leaves and flakes flying. Best autumn ever. 100% snow no pings. Going to be a fun day. 

5 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

based on CC radar Turnersville should actually flip to snow.  

Just had my traditional pre-snow whopper in your honor sir. I know your name is a hazardous waste thing but cant help continuing the tradition I began 3 seasons ago. I'm sure my waistline and arteries arent very happy campers though. 31F here no flakes yet but on the doorstep to Bucksco

700vvs and forcing near the DE/PA border moving N is nothing short of insane. Looks summertime convective lol. Going to be some nice reports over the next few hours expanding N and NW.

34 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I mean, looking at the radar I could be wrong, as we have decent returns in N DE and still reporting overcast

Love the gritty avatar! Go flyers!

32/21

Fox 29 reporter just came on and said he is wasting his time and it looks like the snow isn't coming as scheduled for his 9am live shot. LMAO at reporters already calling a bust 

23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

It was the one at 611/County Line...next to the Red Lion Diner.

Other parking lots are getting heavily salted as well...

Ah, I was curious if you were at the one around the corner from me on Street in Warminster. Was gonna roll up and spring for hot coffees. Maybe next time. GL today everyone!!

32f/20

10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

In a WaWa parking lot drinking coffee/mooching WIFI. Truck comes in and drops 3" (exag, but quite a bit) of salt...my poor car if everyone does the same.

30F / DP 19F

 

Which wawa?

Fox 29 AN snowfall entire viewing area for the upcoming area. Very active back end of the season ie Feb and March.

13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

CMC and OP GFS way warmer at the surface at 12 for most of the area. Even the pocono's change over to rain eventually and most start as sleet with no snow. This one is trending in the wrong direction to even see a few flakes on the onset for SE PA. There will be a ton of virga and by the time the column moistens enough, mid levels are too warm.

I fear this is the groundwork we are laying down early for this upcoming season. Didnt like the mid range teaser but more disturbing imo is the last minute shift to an inside runner (slp almost right over the Del River now on the approach) and lack of ull influence. As u said....wrong direction.

Since this is a daytime event mostly I will point out sun angle is generally the same now as the the last few days of January or first couple days of Feb so that should be a non factor anyway. Travel has a decent chance of being impacted n and w especially if road crews just shrug this one off.

^^^Btw that is the 0z euro u posted not the 6z. 6z cut totals by like 2/3s across most of PA outside of the Apps. 6z was a huge cave. I would post map but from a pay site and policy violation.

6 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

6z Euro really not much of a cave although the snow totals are ridiculous as it is counting sleet as snow...even EPS has 5" at Coatesville 

Was more or less referring to slp positioning and more importantly warm tongue blasting thru at 850 mb now. Lots of sleet (to rain far SE PA) for many outside of the mountains and high high hills of interior and N PA. Those euro snow maps (among others) are laughable quite honestly and should be discontinued until sleet and fzra are eliminated from the algorithm.

21 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Not a pro but here is what I think basing off of analogs, the seasonal pattern thus far, and the long term pattern over the last decade or so. Now that enso is more clear, I am more confident in my thinking.  Analog years are  63-64, 77-78, 86-87, 02-03, 14-15. Now you may see this and think oh man, Iceman is about to drop another winter of yore forecast...but not so fast. This winter should feature an active storm pattern similar to what we have seen in the last few weeks frequently featured in a 'modoki' el nino. Modoki el nino are typically prolific snow makers in the interior and in the Northeast and I feel like this winter will be no different. However, down in the 95 corridor and burbs, modoki's are not as much of a lock to be big years but usually do work in our favor if the atlantic is cooperative. Now usually anytime you have above average precip and around normal temps, the area typically sees above average snow fall. And I think those 2 of those 3 things will be true this winter. Unfortunately I do not think the snow part will come together more often than not for 95. I'm thinking the pattern of late will be the theme of winter. Progressive systems that will be prolific moisture makers but will need to thread the needle in order to produce snow for 95.  As we have seen, and will see later this week, a lot of time these patterns produce storms that either hug the coast or cut up the apps. I do not foresee a -NAO being long lasting based on my personal belief that the NAO is largely in one phase over 20 year periods and right now we are in a +NAO regime. Now I think we will have periods with a -NAO but I do not think it will be the dominant feature this winter. Now due to this, we will largely be trying to thread the needle on the coastal plain which works against us more often than not.  One storm can bust my entire snow forecast but I do think largely this will be a winter of changeover events for the 95 corridor. As a result, even though precip will be above normal and temps likely around normal(as behind these systems we will see temps below normal), I think this winter will be at or below average snowfall for the 95 corridor. For the area around the NE extension N and W, I think this winter will be a good one. Above average for sure, potentially an all timer. Here's the month by month breakdown:

 

Dec 

Temps 0 to -2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal for 95 corridor, Above normal N and W burbs(Northeast extension and north)

Jan

Temps +1 to +3

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal 95, above normal N and W

Feb

Temps 0 to +2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Below Normal 95,  Normal N and W

 

Thanks for reading!

Good read! Refreshing to see I am not the lone man on an island with my thoughts anymore 

Just glanced at the 6z euro. Caving to the gfs more tucked and warmer solution. Winter of yore or winter of the tease coming? If we put the experimental gfs mid range and euro on lockdown maybe we can avoid the teases.....euro has been bad dating back to 2 seasons with last minute caving and I can already see the new gfs has a cold bias in medium range. 

So if we see any accumulations do they get factored into seasonal totals or do these statistically fall into autumn category? 

Just now, Newman said:

Wow the NAM keeps NW areas around the Lehigh Valley 90%-100% frozen throughout the storm. Lets go.

No changeover here on the NAM either until dryslotted then the usual 32-33f drizzle.

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

I have to side with the americans as of now based on the ECM performance last winter, it kept going hog wild with snow last winter who knows if it's been tweaked or not.

 

I was thinking the same and even the NAMs are backing down so yeah.

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

....in eastern Monmouth here. 

 

 

 

 

Hold up....u moved?

Looks like 12z suite so far is a bit more tucked with the slp just inside the coastline and thus slightly warmer. Looking more sleet than white here and for many. Agree with Iceman above quick thump with a relatively quick transition to sleet then slowly to cold rain for nearby NW burbs. Temps right around freezing up in my area of Bucks. Glad I'm off Thursday :-)

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think a possible neg NAO may throw a wrench in your outlook? (No offense, but I hope so! Also, do you have similar thoughts for my part of I-95?)

Of course a neg nao would throw a wrench like I put in the outlook. But i am siding with history and recent trends and thinking we dont see a 'sustained' neg nao.

10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

imo this is the type of storm that will be common this winter.

Exactly and thus why I'm not overly concerned with my winter thoughts/outlook post. Yes...active storm track. Yes, ample moisture. Yes, El Nino. BUT you cant just assume this means plenty of snow. My analog winters had all 3 of the factors I noted above but ended up with storm tracks similar to what we have seen so far this fall and with this upcoming storm and yielded not so much snowfall in the city after hopeful late fall starts. We can only hope the track shifts as we get deeper into winter....if u like lots of snowfall in Philly. Otherwise a frustrating season is coming along I95. Hoping we r wrong Iceman but I would much rather be conservative in this pattern than go all-in with a monster snowfall season. Far interior should do really well tho.

Hurricane Schwartz going with a winter of Yore with above normal snow for Philly 30-40" and says those numbers are conservative. I feel like a man all alone on an island with BN snowfall season for Philly proper. 

3k NAM seems most plausible irt snow thump vs taint thump with fewer flakes and more mixing specifically outside of far n and w zones and higher elevations:

Was and am still very skeptical of accumulating snow S and E of a line from say Pottstown, Reading, Allentown (roughly) but NAM and Euro now in agreement for a decent front end thump to sleet to rain even down to the Del River. Hard to go against the NAM/Euro tandem (EE rule). Slowly gaining more optimism.