Ralph Wiggum

3 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

If tonight’s model runs are to be believed (minus the NAM), we are looking at a major winter storm for the interior. 3-6” plus ice on all of them.

I can see this well n and w of i95. Still think sleet could be a bigger player given Ocean temps and screaming ese low and mid level winds. Nice mid November system to shake the rust off :-)

Funny, latest guidance trending slightly more favorable for frozen. Just saw the 18z euro as well...decent shift. Enough to keep me interested anyway.

I know this is the NAM at range but again, I'm not sure how some folks are seeing this as a very snowy solution. Tucked low, no blocking hp North to cause a redevelopment or bump East, no HP to the North filtering in LLC. Outside of far N and W higher elevation areas this is just a teaser....something to track to get the rust off. As far as the ULL pulling through early Friday with a death band I suppose it's possible but forecasting this type of scenario at range is a real challenge. Hoping to maybe see a few flakes at the onset and maybe a few flakes Friday anyway. Not expecting any accumulation in my area. 

Eta: There will be the first accum snow of the season for some, just wanted to note that my disagreement in snow vs little to no snow is irt the i95 corridor and immediate burbs. Far n and w ftw

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

12z Euro went nuts for Thursday. Solid 4-8” plus freezing rain NW of I-95

Far far n and w. The euro has the slp west of philly. This isn't a snowstorm map imo especially for mid November. Slp tucked, another slp in the N Lakes region, hardly any semblance of a hp as the one there was is fading and pulling away. Someone will report accum snows no doubt but sleet will probably be more of a common report. That map has interior sleet/mix event written all over it and jives with most other guidance.

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Ok this is the new GFS, Houston we have a problem 

Slp tucked tight along the coast. Going to be tough to produce along the coastal plain and I95. Could be flakes there to start and end but this scenario favors well NW burbs (even NW of you) and elevation. Majority of guidance now on board. Snowfalls this early generally dont bode well for a good winter but we'll see.

Gotta love the ICON lol:

Probably wrong and I don't agree with it verbatim but the 6z gfs has a far NW burbs 'event' for Thurs-ish time frame. Looks like a sleet fest. Other guidance slower and less frozen. 

2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest from JB at WB

The Verdict

The warmth is coming, but I think more cold than this model run is saying is coming right after it. So we have the front 10 days that will be cold, the following 10 days will be warmer, but then it will be colder again. I don't have any faith in the modeling after that, as I think a cold, stormy December is on the way.

Does JB ever forecast anything besides a "December to remember"?

it's windy.

4 hours ago, RedSky said:

The experimental GFS looks like it has a fantasy snow bias, uh ohs 

 

 

Ensembles have been hinting at an interior far NW burbs or elevation dependent snow event sometime around the 12th-14th for quite a while now if that is what you are referring to.

15 hours ago, Newman said:

The colder water in the Indian Ocean is going to play big dividends this winter. If it persists, I don't see the MJO coming out of favorable phases 8, 1, 2 and 3 too often. Modoki continues to form, even saw a WWB earlier this week which will help build the SST's up a bit. Would like if the eastern areas of the ENSO were a bit colder. Long range shows trough in the east with chances of snow, even closer towards the coast. Scandi blocking is also evident and i would bet we see that alot this winter. I'm loving what I'm seeing heading into November and this winter at the moment.

The hemispheric factors you pointed out are certainly encouraging. However, how they will actually play out in terms of real weather at the surface and not just a nice looking index is the key here. What I dont like that I continue to see over and over on the 500mb anomaly charts that have been there since Sept and continue to be shown in the long range are the WAR that continues to surface......where we generally want to see a 50/50 during the winter months is in fact a repetition of a transient WAR feature. With that said, the fact the this feature (for now) is transient when it shows up should allow for some chances as time moves forward. But as I alluded to in my outlook, this feature is going to give the coastal plain fits as we will get our storms but those couple of degrees that we rely on with a 50/50 aiding us irt LLC may in fact favor those far NW burbs where traditionally and climatologically it is colder/snowier. 

The other feature that is different than the past few years so far is the EPO feature or +PNA look (tandem). When we do see ridging out west and into Western Canada it has been getting easily squashed and displaced. In autumns past we have seen this feature being more of a persistent look and that allowed decent hints into the future of winter. Again tho, the feature is there sporadically.....just transient. So we will probably still get good looks during the winter, it will be a matter of timing. 

With the analog seasons I used in the outlook thread, those winters had some of the same looks but when we had out chances, the timing just never came together and snowfall was BN in those winters for PHL proper but far NW burbs fared better. I cant say (nobody can) for certain how the timing will pan out this year but if you blend those analogs verbatim with all things equal, I am definitely not sold on the "winter of yore" thing for the coastal plain. Farther NW will fare better. Inbetween zones will see more sleet/mix this year than 'normal' seasons. Very warm SSTs off the coast probably wont help and this is where out wam layer comes from during coastal storms which traditionally do the damage in flipping snow to sleet etc. 

So yes, some of the factors hemispherically that you pointed out do look decent as you noted, but how it all unfolds at the surface will be how we remember things come April 2019. We *should* see more storminess and moisture this year due to the Nino influence BUT there is alot more to it than just that alone. 

One final thing I have seen repeated since about early September has been cool Canadian HP taking hold and giving the region BN temps and blue skies for a period followed by brief warmups (AN) with cutter-style storms going to our West and subsequent piece(s) of energy breaking off and sliding off the SE or redeveloping and being tucked or slightly inland. It's early but havent seen anything favorable thus far irt to timing of key pieces at 500mb and the surface. This could and probably will change as we head into the colder months. For better or for worse? TDB. You guys know where I stand by now. 

What is "the winter of yore" I keep reading about irt the upcoming winter for our region down to the coastal plain?

Cutter pattern upcoming. Hopefully this is just a fall feature and can shift when colder arctic hp starts influencing things. Still think cutters and tucked storms will be common this winter hope I'm wrong. Alot of folks releasing outlooks that are calling for the harshest winter since 2010 etc. I'm personally not seeing that tho. Feels and looks like fall today....gorgeous outside. Enjoy! 

On 10/25/2018 at 12:38 AM, RedSky said:

Looks like the winter of yore is coming a good 60-80" in the region. No joke.

 

 

Bold! N and W of you, I will agree. Q Town on the fence imho. Interior ie far NW Burbs will have a solid one for a change. Sharp drop the farther S and E from your area you go. 

That pretty much is my final call. I only usually put out one outlook in October. Very seldom do I ever revise as the season goes on.....defeats the purpose of a seasonal outlook if you adjust it repeatedly as the months go forward :-) I also wont ever grade myself post-mortem whether good, bad, or indifferent....I'll leave that to you guys. I'm not here for accolades, followers, subscribers etc...I'm here because enjoy the fun of the hobby and quite frankly it relates quite a bit to the type of fishing I do and having a general foundation of how the weather behaves helps me plan my trips :-)

Looking forward to your outlook. Nice hearing from ya.

14 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Yo Ralph, welcome back from your summer cave!

"Pro" or "people who know what they're talking about"....doesn't really matter either way IMO. I don't think there are any mods in this forum to move/delete...we are self-reliant.  

Thanks neighbor, good to be back.....it's a good feeling to know it's approaching "that time of the year".

Wish I could have provided a better outlook for snow lovers in extreme SE PA. I generally don't glance at other outlooks as sometimes that causes a bias so Im not sure how this fits what others are thinking. It's like my surf fishing hobby.....I don't read reports from others, I prefer making my own reports :-) 

Neither of the 3 analogs that I am using were particularly snowy in Philly proper. I didn't delve into how they fared N and W of PHL in those years but other data I am utilizing suggests farther interior away from the city will have a good winter with a fairly sharp dropoff from say Doylestown on South and East. This year will likely feature less of a sharp cut and dry rain/snow line than we have 'generally' seen in recent seasons with more of an expanse of sleet/mix zones in between so I am feeling those types (ip) will be more of a factor than usual for some. Again though, the N Atl blocking (or lack thereof) and EPO are what will prove to be the wild card. Im not too gung-ho on the N Atl blocking setting up in favorable spots for any prolonged period basing this again off of analogs and recent oscillation activity. WAR will likely be our enemy. BUT, it only takes ONE El-Nino driven coastal to bust my thinking. 

Just realized the title of the thread is "pro" forecasts. I apologize in advance if my outlook doesn't belong here. Feel free to move or delete as necessary. Thanks.

Leaning heavily 1991-1992 analogue for the upcoming winter for the area (tho not completely 100% identical but several characteristics as well as some other lesser  analogue years blended in 1958-59/1979-80). Details to follow.

Eta: Favoring a decent interior (N and W burbs potentially 'far' N and W burbs) winter with less than stellar of a winter S and E. Significant positive SD of SSTs off the Mid Atl and NE Coast, Gulf Stream location anomaly 75-125 miles to the W of normal sea current position, and WAR displacement likely will impact precip types significantly when the larger El Nino (weak but increasing) driven storms move thru. Storm track nearer the coastline this year aka 'tucked'. Thinking sleet will be more of a feature this year far SE PA. DJF temps Philly proper N to slightly AN with DJF snowfall BN. N and W of there  temps near normal especially farther N and W with snowfall BN NW thru about KDYL but quickly transitioning to N tk the NW of there and AN far NW burbs. March is a question mark BUT history and analogues say we likely wont be shut out completely late-season.

Apologies if breakdown is vague I'm not good with making maps but those are my general thoughts/ideas.

Factors that could cause this to bust or features to keep an eye on that could shift this around are the EPO which has been raging in recent years.....has allowed for colder air filtering in BUT has also generally kept things progressive as the Atl side hasn't worked out. With that said, the other factor to watch is the position of the WAR and how it influences OR retorgrades into any sort of NAO neg anomaly and blocking. 

On 9/22/2018 at 2:32 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

October 29

Really need this to slow down about 6 hours or so:

October 29

Many many people being interviewed saying they left shelters and returned home yesterday once the storm started getting downgraded. These same folks are saying this is the worst devastation they have ever seen and rescue efforts are non stop. This is not the NHC fault imo BUT I do think the old saffir Simpson scale needs to be retired. As a met community WE understand it and WE understand surge etc and how a Cat 1 can often be as devastating as a Cat 3-4 but Joe Public hears downgrade and assumes the all clear has been sounded. Just my $.02 irt to SS

25 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

 

You know the electrician did solid work when waves are above your first floor windows and every light inside and outside the home are still functioning like nothing is happening. Solid storm surge.

24 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

I’m the DOS at the hotel.  We have a lot of moving parts with power crews, news teams and emergency responders in house.  We need to have staff here so the hotel can remain open for them to get their jobs done.  The hotel will be fine. It’s my home I’m worried about.  Not in a flood zone but this could be unprecedented. 

MS-DOS?

Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own.  Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC:

22 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

You mentioned the bad things, so I will point out a couple of good things regarding potential surge. 1) Storm is weakening and pushing less water 2) Looks like landfall will be around low or at least mid-tide tomorrow.

Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory?