Ralph Wiggum

30 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Happens every year and I'm not the least bit discouraged at this point. I'll be shocked if I don't see positive trends in the coming days. You may have started the thread a tad early but hell let's wing it and see what happens. We already have a decent storm under our belts and the potential for another before mid Dec...that's a solid start.

Yeah probably a little early....I thought that too after I made it but heck it keeps things organized if anything. My January 2016 blizzard thread was started with even more lead time iirc. The bigger ones tend to be modeled well in advance. Doesnt always mean a hit for us but guidance usually sees all of the ingredients.

One thing people havent brought up much is the ridging out in the Atlantic. Not sure if it is considered the WAR or the SE ridge by definition or a blend of both but it keeps getting stronger. Another reason I think this storm doesnt head due E and actually will help steer it closer to the Mid Atl. This could still very much end up a storm with impacts from the SE to New England and everywhere in between.

Shame we cant the circled area to be father West instead of phasing off the coast. Maybe just maybe that ull off the Southwest US can pump the downstream ridge a little more aggressively/faster (+pna even if transient). Who knows? Well we all know there will be major changes still over the next several days anyway.

3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Not long after Ralph created this threat thread the wheels started coming off the potential, funny how that happens..

 

Point taken but c'mon Red, you have been around long enough and you do this almost every LR storm threat every year.  Models back off from a near-perfect scenario 7 days out, people go into a frenzy and post how they knew tracking was a waste of their time, lead time shortens to 4 days and positive trends re-emerge. Whether that happens here or not I dont know but this isn't DOA by a long shot. I know your post wasnt throwing in the towel u were just lol'ing about the timing factor but stay tuned on this one....too many pieces in play here and ingredients are all still there. 

GEFS clustering closer to coast and the GEPS also have a camp that would impact our region (havent dissected the EPS yet). Not overly concerned one way or the other yet. And tbh I dont want to be in the bullseye right now so the shifting around on guidance works for me. Rather an intense nor'easter South of the region than trying to get an OV cutter low to shift for the better. 

GEFS precip mean clearly headed the wrong way.

Fv3 also shifted suppressed and is a whiff. Too early to write it off but the biggest trend is the strength of the blocking hp continues to increase. Acting like a wall. Not overly concerned at this range yet but also not a warm fuzzy feeling seeing most guidance shift. The threat and players are still in play for a winter storm for someone from Carolinas to S NE.

Euro control run is suppressed and a whiff for us. GEFS and EPS have also shifted mean qpf max farther South. Only a week of model runs and swings to go! Meanwhile the GEPS have delayed the threat til the 11th but cold air essentially gone by then   very marginal setup.

2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

GFS is clueless. Its run to run changes have been downright comical. Thank god this mess of a model will be taken out to pasture next month. I'm more inclined to follow the GFS Para. Only problem is its always painfully slow to come out on tidbits. Hopefully this issue will be fixed when it officially takes over.

Was going to add exactly what you said.....the shifts from run-to-run on the GFS have been absurd. Literally went from a cutter, to tucked low, to perfect track, now off the SE coast. Euro has been relatively steady FWIW. Right or wrong who knows?

6z GFS takes Newman's early idea of suppression and runs with it. Reminiscent of one of the misses from last season where all models were on board for a hit here then it went to Cuba lol.

0z Euro op

0z suite brings smiles for SE PA. Bullseye still south of us in general on  cmc....GFS's moved towards an I95 hit...heaviest band central VA thru DC into DE and part of SJ. Ukmet starting to honk.

Also Euro is another solid hit for SE PA.

Where are all of the regular posters? I know there arent a ton of us but this threat has legs.

18z GFS is essentially my winter outlook in a nutshell....cutter track redevelops to a tucked low snow to rain I95, wide zone of sleet, best snows far N and W. I hope on so many levels this is not how next weekend plays out.

EPS members are a mix. Looks like mixed clusters of close calls, I95 hits, and NW burbs hits this run . A few shutouts and also some monster hits as well. Control snow mean increased. Posting this particular member because I dont think too many folks would complain if this verified:

Where has Jebman been? We need his optimistic snow on snow on snow sort of attitude.

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

12z old GFS  run, can i have 6z back again 

 

 

GEFS are good we are a tad N of bullseye....Euro is good we are N of bullseye, CMC is ok....North of best snows. GFS outlier and the GEFS confirm this. About where we want things at this range.

Not sure what it means for next weekend but at 150 the GFS is really digging our energy into the Baja.

45 minutes ago, Newman said:

As you can see. This one has the looks of a truly classic snowstorm. 

For the sake of those with limited bandwidth I cut the pics from the quote but wanted to say GREAT POST!!

46 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Welcome to the 1st day of Meteorological winter! 29F here currently. Could be a good leaf blowing/raking day.

Eta - do your thing RTD208 - Ralph saved it for you :-).

Ha! Yep

Make it!

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Forget about the fact that we might have a potential storm to track....jesus god it's December already! Where did the year go?

I seriously feel like we were just packing up Christmas decorations now those who celebrate the holiday are taking them out again. Years are going too fast.

GEFS clearly show how the trend has been N the past few runs. Could be wrong but I think we are moving away from any suppressed Southern sliders and closing in on a more typical mid Atlantic and possibly northeast winter storm. 

Please use this thread for all off-topic material. Try and keep the other threads readable. The regulars thank you!

Almost all guidance has parts of the region seeing snowfall next weekend. GFS family and Euro control are most aggressive. Classic looking Nino event with cold hp north and a juicy STJ paying a visit.

Please try and keep this thread clean and on-topic irt the coming threat. There is a banter thread for other horsing around. Thanks.

The other thing is, this isn't a Nina pattern where pieces are moving around at the speed of light and bouncing around from run to run. Last year for example we struggled with forecasts 72 hours out irt even whether there would be a big storm or no storm whatsoever. Not saying this year will be easy but I am much more comforted in knowing there is really strong agreement already 7 days lead time. Yes I expect shifts and changes still. But I also dont expect this to go from where the majority is at this time to say a cutter or a total whiff like we saw numerous times last year. I think the spread is shrinking between a classic i95 rain/snow line dca-nyc type of event to a richmond-philly special. Yes we are right inside the window for both and yes I feel good we see wintry weather in the region next weekend. Hope that is transparent enough without anyone having to read between the lines. Major or minor tbd.

Fv3 on board