Ralph Wiggum

3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Looking back, there's a pretty good correlation between good winters and November snowfall in the Philadelphia area. It's honestly almost unanimously the case...

We must be looking at different areas and research points?

Eta: I'm looking broadly at moderate el Nino years and novembers qith large snowfalls in philly.

8 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I give them credit for making the effort to do the research and put the thought into it that they do, and I appreciate it. Kind of early to say how the winter will turn out. I'm sure they like snow and a good storm as much as you and I and many others who post here. I like the way things look, but the weather can sure humble you if you get cocky.

I certainly didnt take his post one way or the other not to mention I would never have stuck my neck out with an outlook if I didnt expect criticisms so its all good I dont take anything here personal.

Being a snow freak I hope my outlook busts horribly and I95 corridor sees 1500% AN snowfall this year 

Things look decent going forward for now but I will add just a few things. Last year we had epic patterns and teleconnections show up in the LR....some looks materialized, others didn't, but in terms of real weather, the epic pattern we DID see were more or less duds at the surface for us. Blocking was epic, undercutting energy was there, etc but more times than not it never materialized so while getting the LR players to show up on the field is one thing , getting a storm to workout is whole different ballgame.

Also, I have some concerns regarding the early starts to winters past and how those early starts correlated to lackluster seasons in Philly proper overall. Couple that with many El Nino years in general in research shows those Decembers mostly provided 180 degree flips in the pattern. Again, I cant say for certain but history and the above factors say December could flip on us to a not-so-favorable look.

Hoping yesterday's storm is a precursor to the type of winter were are headed into but I have my reservations thus why my outlook is what it is.

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Snow has stopped...sun breaking through. Although the amounts weren't super high, it was a great storm! Especially for Nov...

Yep. Temp drop must have been due to the 700mb energy pass and heavy snowfall rates for a time this morning. Sun creeping out and temp up to 34 now. Nice early event to shake the rust off. Hopefully the pattern can lock in for the season and doesnt do that reverse flip that we sometimes see with early wintry weather. 

Moderate snow here. Temp plummet from 35 to 32 over last 80 mins and flash freeze occurring. 

Ripping squall here. Schools on.a 2 hour delay.

5.75" before we went over to a mix of snow and pingers a few minutes ago. Dry slot ad dancing from the SW. The race is on here between the dry slot and the possible change to plain rain.  

Latest hrrr all frozen here thru 8pm then periodic drizzle or a shower overnight with 2 hour thump of sleet to snow around daybreak tomorrow. Yikes!

Hrrr continues to slowly push the change to plain rain back later each run for this area. I'm starting to doubt plain rank ever makes it aside from some drizzle overnight then another transition back to a brief but heavy snow/sleet thump right around sunup tomorrow.

11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Hold the phone...big ass flakes starting to mix back in.

27F

Holy moly these look like silver dollar pancakes falling from the sky!!!

80% flakes 20% sleet....changeover is occurring. 

4" now with 2"/hr rates. 

Quick deck pic

Old man winter pissed at me and Iceman for our winter outlooks apparently. Just came in from the field and measured 3.2" on the board. Absolutely ripping here!

15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

already one here. crossed the 1" mark at 1230...easily up to 1.5" in levittown. Our forecast was <1 inch. Still ripping with no sleet in sight. 

Almost at 2" here. Early models had us as sleet around 2PM but slowly backed off. I dont see a flip until 4pm earliest for my area.

If we dont flip to sleet soon here going to be a bust in a positive way! I like those :-)

4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Hey where’s Ralph? Glad we didn’t shrug this one off


.

I'm surprised you use the Philly forum and not the Poconos/upstate PA forum to discuss your locale.

12 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

sure it does

Just went back and looped it and yeah after 7pm some off and on drizzle and plain rain showers. Very typical in most of these situations where we get thumped with the WAA stuff then it warms aloft and tries to dryslot us behind the WAA and before the ULL pass. In any event the damage will have been done already during rush hour tonight. Fun day!!

Friday AM commute now looking dicey on guidance down this way as a thump of snow and sleet comes in via the ULL pass.

Just came inside, about 1/10th of an inch shy of the first inch of snow on the snowboard.

1 minute ago, hazwoper said:

sure it does

Looks like mainly a dryslot just as snizzle turns to drizzle but to save us the sake of arguing, sure plain rain for about 10 minutes.

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Just wondering...where's "here"? 

I've been, and still am, at the Horsham library since it started so I have no idea how the main roads are?

Bristol Rd Warminster looking out the window. Cars crawling along. 

Latest hrrr mix of snow and sleet back and forth here thru 7pm then dryslot. Now has no plain rain for my area in Bucks. 

Main roads are snow covered here. SN+ attm

Puking snow here wow

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Man, picked up intensity real quick.

Yep! Leaves and flakes blowing around. Best autumn ever lol.