Ralph Wiggum

Larry Cosgrove saying seasonal then turning warm after mid-month with a warm Christmas for us....again. Brief cold snap after the holiday then mild from New Year through late January.

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According to Accuweather extended forecast for my area, no snow in December with the first accumulating snowfall occurring around the 16th of January as a wintry mix that being the only snowfall aside from some snow showers/flurries thru Feb 9.

Interesting, assuming accuracy in projected precip when it seems hard enough to get that right within 48 hrs!

Whatever Shena showed at 11 was a mess of numbers for various regions/ "neighborhoods" in our area.. Way too much to sort through!! Don't think that new feature will survive public opinion!

I don't care for it personally. Information overload.

Someone from NOAA was on a morning show with Al Roker last week. Al was showing the upgraded Euro reporting from England...in particular the run which clobbered the I95 corridor. He commented something about how accurate the Euro is and is now upgraded yada yada yada. Anyway, they went back to the studio to interview someone from NOAA and he said the USA has an upgraded model that is being tested and will be released soon that is even better and more accurate than the Euro. He didnt say which model.

Is it safe to assume he was referencing the GFS para?

Or is there another beta model under lock and key that will be put into the model rotation?

ECM ensembles north for the day 7 system so...

Murphy's Law that as soon as I throw in the towel a threat pops up lol. Alas, its the Euro and hasn't been its old rock-solid self in the LR this year. Garner some more support from other guidance and get us within 4 or 5 days and I'll jump all-in.

Its over.....

Agreed 100%. Wouldn't be surprised by a few March snow showers at some point during the first half of the month, but for all intents and purposes in Philly proper, it's over. I keep seeing posts around the forums that day 10 looks promising, but this is merely a broken record in this winter of shattered LR dreams.

So is he still thinking no more big snows for philly and nyc?!

LOL!

I'm not sure what guidance he is using but I zero to little N Atl blocking on any LR ops nor any of the ens means. And he is also ignoring the strong Western Atlantic Ridge (see latest CMC/GFS for how this keeps storm track inland/warmish as opposed to being able to run off the coast). These "the pattern looks ripe in 8-12 days" predictions have not and are not working out this season for whatever reason. It's easy to point to the strong El Nino I suppose but I wonder if it has anything to do partly with the anamolous sst's near Greenland? The NAO predictions have seemed to crap the bed the most in recent months of all teleconnections.

Looks like DT already started a thread. I agree too early. No ego's here just trying to get more info.

Sorry, I wasnt referring to YOU, lol. But rather the big dog himself ;-)

I don't care for DT but I think the pattern that sets up there screams snow at some point... -EPO, -AO, split flow, pumping up the ridge out west, maybe we get a storm at the beginning of the shift as the cold air comes in but I've noticed we tend to do better with a rising AO and retreating cold as the pattern is getting ready to reload, may have to wait for that.

Oh hell yeah, the teleconnections suggest we are far from finished with winter. And the pattern after Feb 5-ish turns from AN to N/BN. The one thing different this go around appears the STJ wont be quite as active to start out, but trends better as we move past Feb 10-ish. I'm not against this threat, I'm merely stating the facts that for now, there is not much support for a specific threat 240 hours or further out.

Do we know what the ensembles and OP looked like last time at this point before the last storm?

They were in fair agreement at day 6-7 before suppressing the storm. Too far out to get excited or start a thread based on one OP run with minimal ens support from Euro or GFS. But that's just me. If you're trying to puff your chest by noting the potential first before anyone else, then by all means, start a thread :-)

EPS say the OP is all by itself. Teleconnections are decent with a nice ridge out West but really weak signal for a big storm....for now.

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On his PM update he mentions only 49 of 51 Euro member do not support his thoughts.....no surprise he said he is stubborn guy and will maintain his idea.....for now

So, unless you typo'd, 2 of 51 ens members support his idea that parts of the Northeast see "more snow Jan 28-29 than the past Blizzard". I believe in his report this AM he is referencing Boston (which did not have Blizzard conditions, mind you). And he is "stubbornly" sticking to his guns/forecast. And you don't see the problem here? He is forecasting using catch-phrases (blizzard) and tugging at your emotions all the while pulling for a big storm when not a single op model suggests it.

I disagree with the poster that said JB is great because he knows when to fold, take a bust, and admit he was wrong. If anything, he is a poor short range forecaster because he doesn't see the err in his ways to step up and change his forecast. A good forecaster adjusts when there is model support suggesting to. Obviously not flopping with every single model run, but JB rarely throws in the towel. In some occupations this is a great value to have....the go down with the ship mentality. In meteorology, it is not. It makes you look bad when you fail over and over. Do I respect the man, his education, his experience? Absolutely. I just don't see him as a great forecaster save from some of his LR stuff.

End rant.

LC posted to my FB this morning to really watch Jan 28-29? I'm not feeling this 'threat'. Flow progressive via kicker riding Canadian border, strung out weak areas of low pressure S and E of OBX, temps marginal at best. Even the one model that showed the threat yesterday (Euro) hardly had precip to West of slp which would mean a track right on the coast to get precip into the big cities IF the system even formed and came North. I'm personally not feeling this one except maybe a coastal grazer in our far Southern zones.

Anyone see what LC might be on to or see things differently than myself? I don't even see model support for a hit in our area, though I could be wrong and maybe misreading the pattern? Always looking to learn.

I have to give JB kudos for putting out his forecast on snow amounts on this past blizzard last Sunday and pretty much nailed it from DC to Boston without the usual model waffling that most mets I see do (and did for this one). He stuck with his ideas and explained why he thought the models were incorrect and would trend north.

Larry Cosgrave is another met that I really respect too.

JB calls for snowpocalypse with every storm so eventually he was bound to hit one.

And yes, LC is amazing! Calls it as he sees it and 'usually' he sees it correctly.

I have to give JB kudos for putting out his forecast on snow amounts on this past blizzard last Sunday and pretty much nailed it from DC to Boston without the usual model waffling that most mets I see do (and did for this one). He stuck with his ideas and explained why he thought the models were incorrect and would trend north.

Larry Cosgrave is another met that I really respect too.

JB calls for snowpocalypse with every storm so eventually he was bound to hit one.

And yes, LC is amazing! Calls it as he sees it and 'usually' he sees it correctly.

Wow, calling for two 12"+ storms sure is gutsy.

Glenn is halfway there! :-)

Local news outlets really playing on this turning to rain. Actually a little surprised....little support for this attm.

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The same reason they get deleted over at the other site. Difference there is u get banned after the first offense.

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Only reason there were more posts here is because of this topic. And those few people are way smarter than me.

I don't deny that small group are advanced meteorologists/scientists. I think that is part of the reason that particular forum is more geared towards red-taggers whereas americanwx seems more geared toward everyone including folks with little to no understanding of basic meteo.

no its not. i go there mostly.

Tomato, tomatoe. I lurk there quite a bit actually. Its still the same 3 or 4 folks talking to themselves day in, day out. There were more posts in this subforum today than the other site all subforums combined. Maybe thats not saying a whole lot tho.

This subforum is a ghost town in the wake of tombo's board being created. Probably best off merging.

Maybe philly members can barter.

Tombo's board is more quiet than this forum, no offense to him.

So what is the point? I can go read the NYC forum as easily as I could read a separate NYC thread.

Agreed, its so much more simple and less confusing the way it is currently. Dont fix it if it isnt broke. And this is nothing personal with NYC....they have a great core of quality posters that I am friends with. The current format just makes more sense. Its not about quantity of posts but rather quality and convenience.

No merger please. There may be fewer posts here but there is a heck of a lot less inter-subforum arguing as well. We are a small, tight-knit family here....I vote to keep it that way.

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Many pro mets continue to honk for a major pattern reversal mid-late January. This is certainly welcome news.

 

I've said since October this will likely be a year which features a 2-3 week winter in late January/early Feb and it certainly looks to potentially be panning out that way. I will take whatever we can get, as long as it's not a complete shutout in terms of snowfall. Only thing I dont like on the long range progs are when any cold does arrive, it overwhelms the pattern and pushes the STJ and storm track well-South and off the coast. Let's hope that's not how it plays out but I can certainly see the warm/wet and cold/dry pattern verifying.

Larry Cosgrove and I were chatting online earlier and he stated that in 2 weeks from today, this area will wish that we were experiencing the current conditions again that we are seeing outside. He says winter is going to turn on with a fury we haven't seen in quite sometime with prolonged bitter cold and abundant snows being the rule rather than the exception. He says the MJO is telling and this supposed pattern reversal will not be denied.