Ralph Wiggum

14 minutes ago, WeatherNovice said:

Can you point me to your source for this?  I missed it.....thanks

https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/1040346782801256449

https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1040346725091819520

Its odd the surge potential was lowered/decreased no? Seems to me trend on guidance is an even slower Florence and more time centered over water before a LF. Just thought it was odd that they would lower the threat with the general public focusing on surge potential and based on what we are seeing already in spots at slack low tide attm that are completely inundated. Hope nobody is breathing a sigh of relief reading that info.

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well.

Surprised yet not surprised at the same time. Some of the hi res guidance showed this reorganizing fairly well. Not good news at all.

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Did they change the camera angle on that Bogue Inlet Pier webcam or is it completely gone now? 

The Atlantic pier one is better angle from beach dune it appears. Search live Atlantic beach. Whole front of pier sways 5+ feet every so often. Motion sick just watching this.

Not sure if this belongs here but this surge will be under forecast imho. Look at those webcams and the water already to houses at low tide and storm still a decent ways offshore still from worst surge. High tide tonight is going to be devastating. 

The Bunker commercial fishing restrictions resulted in a big increase in food supply to bring the Humpbacks into our waters.

 

 

Also yielded an increase in striped bass and monster bluefish at least down my way. Best fishing in years!

Get with the facts.  CFS is warm for Dec.  Then it goes ballistically and statistically RECORD COLD for the whole continent.   We turn green with envy.  Green is 10 degs. F BN  for everyone, everywhere.  Obviously suspect.  Check it out.  Nice computer game for a child to play with.

Link?

Who was qg_omega before the username change?

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6z NOGAPS came significantly farther West and clearly less progressive thru 120. Now has LF between Cape Lookout and Ocracoke it appears. Thats a red flag to me in my experience using this model. 6z GEFS have slowed Maria and mean has ticked West very close to NC Coast.

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Re: Maria track.....are the GGEM and NAVGEM really horrible with tropical systems? I've read here countless times that we should never even bother looking at those models in terms of tropics. I only mention it because both clearly weaken Jose quicker, re-establish a ridge, and thus going to take Maria in the East Coast it appears. Should they be completely discarded or should we use them for hints irt Jose weakening so rapidly (not exact Maria track verbatim)?

Maybe Larry C was omto something and should have stuck with his original thoughts for a warmup. 6z GFS says winter ends and spring begins next week. I say bring it!

4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Let's hope the ECM comes in something like the Canadian. The scales have tilted too far now for a southern system.

 

Euro has solid HP dominating where others have some sort of storm. 

4 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

 

Not sure what you read Ralph but, As I suspected...his latest thoughts sound pretty optimistic for us!!

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/MzsJ1WZu4qU

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/oSecNhtPNOE

He obviously saw the new trends past 24 hours. His posts on FB especially have been borderline trolling a mild pattern emerging. Glad he's on board finally!

Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season.

9 hours ago, RedSky said:

I hate March yuck

 

A winter fan Dec-Jan-until Valentines day mid Feb then the nuclear sun angle takes over

 

 

We are two of a kind.....that is my exact 'winter' time frame as well. Anything after VD is usually wet slop and melts relatively quickly. Not like those mid January storms that accumulate on roads to where Penndot is still salting and pushing piles around still for 3-4 days after the storm. 

I believe climate change and everything it entails such as altered SST's and the warming pole is playing havoc with the physics of computer models, the flipping beyond 24hrs had been extreme recent winters.

 

Kind of made a point there for the other side. There used to be a time where it was meteorology and not modelology. Not saying Glenn model mongers.....I don't think he does, BUT there are those pros that 'forget' how to forecast IMHO and solely follow the models. True meteorology is becoming a lost art.

Where's the nbc10 weather truck?

JB and Cosgrove essentially agree tho LC says all of January a complete washout until the very end of the month.

you should definitely keep posting snow obs over in the midatlantic forum, though...they really like that

Agreed. They are a receptive bunch.

Ralph, you didn't need to delete your post.  

It was irrelevant to the topic.

jb says the cfs looks great !

Who is JB?

Cosgrove sticking hard to his guns saying this upcoming cold snap will be brief and transient in an overall AN temp pattern that is locked in thru late January. Guess he doesn't like looking at the EPS or GEFS? They are completely opposite of what he is suggesting with very cold and stormy pattern taking shape.

Cosgrove updated again today. Says brief cold shot later this week but transient as the progressive/zonal pattern locks in thru the last days of January. He is saying mild East of the Apps thru very late January. Not what I wanted to hear this morning.

LC going with mean trof in center of nation thru New Year at least with warmth on both coasts. One of the rare times I disagree with him.

Didnt JB throw in the towel just a few days ago??

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