Ralph Wiggum

Not seeing anything 'bad', unless your expectations are set at wall-to-wall snow and cold with each wave next week. Saturday night now looks 95% frozen, not much snow but whatever. Tuesday is starting to hone in on a solid 4-8"/5-10" ish type secs. Then a followup wave thurs or fri is really close with the boundary but that could go either way, then fantasy range has a signal for PD and after the 20th a window opens for a bigger 'potential' (Archabault?) As the nao rots. So yeah. If you asked me if I would take this in a Nina February I would sign on the dotted line.

Yep. Remember when I made a post 6 days or so ago when the Euro had highs in the mid 60s today for us? Changes.

I don't understand how a hobby like this is stressful? I guess people make it stressful on themselves. The weather is what it is. We just take it or leave it....there is no changing it

But look at that gradient near the city

Yep, direct hit. But 5+ days out in the jackpot?? Umm, congrats interior NY state?

That first slug was the anafront thing the models had a few days back. That is an irrelevant player imho. If we flake from it consider it a bonus.

Delayed but not denied....I can feel it in my girded loins

Turn your 18+ safe mode off for this image

Remember when the Euro had mid 60s forecast tomorrow?

Confidence is very high. Ensembles are on board, the 2 big ops are on board AND there appears to be 2 shots next week so if Tues-Wed fails which seems unlikely, we look to the weekend and the weekend rule.

Well, that was a fun happy hour.

I have a feeling alot of folks misinterpreted my posts this AM about the post feb 20 maybe being a toss up but we have a bunch of shit staring us in the face next 7 days or so. By.zero.means was that complaint nor a knock on any individual. I even put a comment that it would be funny to reach climo over the next 10 days then flip to a relax after that. Was more a knock on our ens systems at range and also a reminder to look in front of us and not into deep fantasy. By all means, bring the snow threats now. Would much rather have them next week than looking beyond and just hoping. Now as you were.

Euro is a mecs btw:

The incomparable NAVGEM:

One of these years we will learn to only focus on 5 days ...maybe 7 at most and not the fantasy range

We'll see what happens I guess. Others are saying things are lining up perfectly still for the 2nd half of Feb. Really think the SPV split thing screwed our pattern change up but I'm probably imagining it.

I also think maybe the old adage 'guidance is about a week or so too fast and rushing the pattern change' may have been in err this time. Like someone else said, 3 tracking events next 8-10 days or so....you bet I will savor it and be tracking my ass off.

This is what I've been saying for a week now. We are too focused on late month and stuff will surprise us in the short and mid ranges. Well, here we are.

Already crazy but yeah.... Folks were touting the pattern on the models getting rushed and best stuff late Feb into March. But the pattern doesn't look like the models were rushing it. -NAO/-AO/-EPO allowing here next week and it isnt mid month. My gut is saying models actually were slow with the model change and we should enjoy next week.

Anyone else feel this advertised great pattern after Feb 20 is going to turn out to be meh and the real show is actually over the next week and a half to two weeks?

Is the mint pattern still on target to arrive after the 20th or did the epo change mitigate that?

No Sistene Chapel teleconnection? No March 1993?