Ralph Wiggum

How does the sun angle look since this is daytime stuff?

At 18z yesterday the NAM jumped the low center East towards some of the convection. It corrected itself at 0z and 6z. 12z seems to try and do that again after 42hrs and jumps the low ENE. Would think the surface low would be more inclined to hug the baro zone tbh. Not saying "tucked" but the 150 mile jumps to convective flareups seem sus to me.

Maybe. Or like sometimes we see a delay with the surface reflection until next suite. Who knows. You're probably right tho about the trof being slightly broader.

Complicated. Lots of moving parts. But you know how we do complicated....what could possibly muck things up?

Not by much. Another adjustment or two like this....

What does the acronym PRE stand for? Or is it just short for pre event snow band?

Big changes on the NAM. Sharper trof, more NS digging. Snow breaking out here by 9AM tomorrow! Wow.

Wow big changes on the NAM. Model mayhem

Has anyone checked on Randy? He was really beating himself up yesterday. He is missed.

Sidebar....TT interface really stepping up their game. Love the new additions and user friendly convenient interface.

Big transition back to -PNA and eastern ridging is now all but gone on LR ens. Pattern relax kicked to mid Feb now. A few very transient breaks in the BN temps but overall the +PNA is locked in as well as big EPO ridge. Some signs of AO trying to go negative also (went from a ++AO look on LR to neutral to now maybe -AO). Keep this pattern going with the base cold air source depicted and we keep tracking. Nothing stopping us!

Besides myself, who else is ready to start tracking next weekend? Several models and ens sniffing this potential and starting to fire up on a few ops as well now:

Should we still be using the ens for an event starting in 36 hrs? Seems there should be less weight on ens and more on the ops at this range, particularly mesos?

Gusty but more impactful right along the coast.

Probably the 'other' Philly forum where all the cool kids hang out. That sort of thing doesnt happen here. But current odds are 2:1 it was RedSky and 10:1 on Birds69

C-4" Reading on east to i476. From i476 to the delaware River 2-6". Across the river 5-10" with 6-12"+ right along the coast. Will narrow the goalposts later tonight. Thought this was gone here in E PA until everything came West 0z and now 6z again. Heck, keep ticking W and maybe nudge those higher totals into E PA?

With most folks fixated on the upcoming weekend system, I haven't seen much talk on how the GEFS and GEPS are kicking the can on the pattern flip. Neither family has a -PNA thru their runs anymore and actually have a very nice Western ridge way up into the EPO region.. and it sticks. With that said, chances will continue as long as we keep that cold air source coming out of Siberia. Starting to gradually see shorter wavelengths between systems on guidance so even if things relax, we can cash in. Keep throwing chances our way with the cold....eventually one will hit.

What in tarnation is this mess?

Same as yesterday...all good til 0z.

And we wait for the Euro

Focusing on wrong sw, looks ok to these old eyes

Make it happen captain

Geez, I made a quick funny to try and lighten up HH and you went THERE? Cmon, we know you can do better.

No major changes thru 6 hours