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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Beware the clown maps.
  2. CT Rain
    Just saw the GFS. Jesus.
  3. CT Rain
    High res op run may be picking up on some cyclogenesis along the inverted trough a bit better than the coarser ensembles but it is nice to see things consolidate pretty quickly. The 12z Euro soundings were pretty warm here in the BL. Hopefully we can work on that a bit in later runs.
  4. CT Rain
    That's a nice look on the EPS overall. Still worried about some warming initially here a bit farther south but can't complain much.
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah I think the "dual low" thing isn't really worth tossing. It's just a reflection of surface pressure falls along the inverted trough prior to full phase/capture. So even if the low isn't as distinct in reality that E/SE flow ahead of the inverted trough will do some damage to the BL.
  6. CT Rain
    lol you're not wrong. I do think that even the "good" looking tracks are going to have issues here in the valley with a pretty torched BL. Going to be a needle threader. Feel better for W CT though as it looks like the congrats ALB scenario is less likely.
  7. CT Rain
    Well I'm not that certain. The Euro is still torched in the boundary layer and verbatim is a lot of rain out of the hills.
  8. CT Rain
    Starting to get more bullish here in CT. The tucked trend has slowed or even reversed. Not much cold air to work with but may be just enough given the very well timed bombing/occlusion to bring the heavy stuff here.
  9. CT Rain
    How we pray. Jeez.
  10. CT Rain
    Verbatim GFS is a deck destroyer here. Sure does thread the effing needle though.
  11. CT Rain
    lol
  12. CT Rain
    Those clown maps off the GFS are hilarious... especially considering the models cold bias and how the soundings look verbatim.
  13. CT Rain
    Parachutes in West Hartford and rain in Tolland? Sign me up.
  14. CT Rain
    The NAM has the "look" at H84 lol
  15. CT Rain
    12km is very warm in the boundary layer.
  16. CT Rain
    Selfishly I don't mind a somewhat earlier bombing south of Long Island.
  17. CT Rain
    You just texted 6-10"
  18. CT Rain
    GFS is nice for many. Definitely a step toward the Euro.
  19. CT Rain
    Yeah could see some tree issues W CT and Hudson Valley too.
  20. CT Rain
    Friday night's event has a few things going for it. Upper level low is tracking a bit farther north and it dives right over NYC which is always interesting for areas just north. Also, the GFS is showing some impressive snow growth under the heavier band with max lift right around -15c. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 10 spots in SE NY or even SW CT.
  21. CT Rain
    NAM is now on board. Pretty impressive look now for W/SW CT with that H5 low track squeezing underneath.
  22. CT Rain
    I'd be. Little cold around and nothing to prevent this from becoming a stemwinder over Kevin's fanny.
  23. CT Rain
    Toaster bath
  24. CT Rain
    Yeah you can see that inverted trough develop as the northern stream forcing starts lowering surface pressures but the southern stream isn't ready to phase yet. You're only a few hours of a phase off from a bomb.
  25. CT Rain
    It's trying though. A bit closer than 18z. Baby steps.
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