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yoda

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  1. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern half of New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern and Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through the afternoon into several broken bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity will likely push east of the Atlantic Seaboard by mid to late evening with the severe risk diminishing from west to east across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of Trenton NJ to 35 miles east southeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  2. yoda
  3. yoda
  4. yoda
    Looks like maybe something just south of Urbana? ETA: and LWX just canceled the warning
  5. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon per MCD - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1181.html Mesoscale Discussion 1181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland...far southern New Jersey...Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061745Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon, as thunderstorms become more widespread. 50-65 mph gusts are the main threat, and are expected to become abundant enough to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A small mid-level impulse embedded within modest westerlies aloft is traversing the central Appalachians, and is poised to approach the Atlantic Coastline this afternoon. As this occurs, thunderstorms should continue to increase in both coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Strong surface heating has supported low-level lapse rates to reach 7 C/km (per 17Z mesoanalysis), and additional heating should further boost these lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. This will promote efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent 50-65 mph gust potential with any strong storm that can become sustained. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours to address the damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
  6. yoda
    932 NOUS41 KLWX 061148 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 070000- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 748 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...Several Damage Surveys Planned for Today... In response to the thunderstorms yesterday evening, several surveys are planned for today to assess storm damage. Teams are being sent out the following counties...In Virginia...Loudoun ...In Maryland...Frederick, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore and Baltimore City and Carroll...In West Virginia...Berkeley and Jefferson. $$ CJL
  7. yoda
    Wow "Stoddard said according to early estimates, 15 tornadoes touched down across the state of Maryland causing several million dollars in damage. He said authorities would have a more complete estimate later Thursday. " https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/severe-weather/tornado-warnings-issued-in-multiple-counties-across-maryland-montgomery-frederick-loudon/65-47ffde20-f23b-433e-b539-556a12e76eb6
  8. yoda
    06z NAM Nest and 07z HRRR are kind of boring for most of the region except maybe south and east of DC
  9. yoda
    Its rain contaminated, but 06z NAM has a TOR sounding near KDCA at 00z from what looks like a single supercell moving through DC metro on sim radar. Not much else going on across the region besides some showers/storms south and east of DC metro by 21z
  10. yoda
    Its MRGL on the early new day 1 (0600z) but LWX seems to agree with you in their morning disco .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front currently over the OH valley will move across our area today, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The early morning showers and few embedded storms in WV and western PA will move into the Alleghenies by sunrise. Not expecting any strong storms, though some locally heavy rainfall is possible. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is going to focus along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, though a few strong storms could also develop in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Morning cloud cover is expected to quickly dissipate, allowing for good diurnal heating and destabilization to take place. Temps this afternoon reach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points still in the lower 70s. The atmosphere remains very moist as PWATs hover around 2.0" through the afternoon. Most of the high res models indicate a broken line of thunderstorms developing along the front as it reaches I-81, but especially as it moves east of the Blue Ridge where the better instability will be. Deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should be enough to allow some organized strong to severe convection to get going. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, though that could be upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas east of the Blue Ridge later this morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat from storms. Faster storm motion should prevent any significant flooding issues from occurring, though there will be quick downpours in the stronger storms. The front and line of storms push east of I-95 by sunset, then any lingering showers behind the front dissipate by late evening. Dry conditions overnight as lows settle in the mid to upper 50s along/west of I-81 and low to mid 60s to the east.
  11. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 MDC031-060015- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-240606T0015Z/ Montgomery MD- 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY... At 743 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Gaithersburg, moving east at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Olney, Aspen Hill, and Redland around 750 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Derwood, Spencerville, Brookeville, Washington Grove, Sandy Spring, Ednor, Ashton, Brinklow, Burtonsville, and Cloverly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3921 7701 3919 7701 3917 7700 3916 7697 3915 7697 3914 7695 3913 7696 3913 7694 3912 7693 3911 7721 3915 7721 3924 7705 TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 261DEG 17KT 3914 7719 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  12. yoda
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather today through Thursday as a series of fronts cross the region. Mostly dry conditions on Friday in the wake of the cold front. A slow moving upper trough approaches the area from the Great Lakes this weekend leading to more unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MORNING UPDATE: Muggy conditions continue this morning, with much of the area exceeding 70 degree dew points. Flow has turned out of the south to south-southeast ahead of an approaching weather system that will impact the region later today. Showers are ongoing across portions of the region, and will likely continue to increase in coverage in the next few hours. Instability is already decent, even amidst the abundant cloudcvoer, as CAPE values are in the 1000-1500 J/kg range already. So, we should be on track with the early morning forecast, which is below.
  13. yoda
    12z NAM though has a pretty decent curved hodo in the DC metro at 00z tonight... so could have a weak spinny
  14. yoda
    That would be quite hilarious to see tbh
  15. yoda
    From this morning LWX AFD re heavy rain threat Flash Flood Threat: This is likely to be the biggest threat of the day as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across the area. WPC has expanded the Slight Risk of flooding to encompass most areas along/north of I-66, the northern Shenandoah Valley, and Alleghenies. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is likely, with isolated amounts up to 3-4 inches is possible. A very important feature to watch is the subtle surface boundary located from Central VA to around Norfolk early this morning. The increasing southerly flow will push this boundary north into our area this afternoon, likely somewhere along or north of the Potomac River. Storms today are likely to be efficient rain producers given the deep warm cloud layer, a moist airmass, sufficient shear, and low-level convergence into the previously mentioned boundary. While mean storm motion is likely to be fast, around 15-20 knots, the multiple rounds of heavy rain could cause issues in urban areas. The 00Z guidance shows the potential for locally heavy rainfall, but exactly where that occurs remains to be seen. The heavy rain footprint various still varies quite a bit from model to model, which is expected in this type of disorganized/cluster storm mode. Given the sensitivities of the DC and Baltimore metros, a targeted Flood Watch has been issued from 12PM today through tonight to account for possible flash flooding due to multiple rounds of storms. Elsewhere, FFG values are high enough and convection spaced out enough that a Flood Watch is not warranted at this time. However, the current watch may be expanded later today depending on future model data.
  16. yoda
    Synoptic/Mesoscale Setup: A mid-level shortwave through will move across the area today, bringing around 20-30 knots of deep-layer shear. Some of the high res models indicate higher shear values are possible during the peak convective window this afternoon/evening. Instability will be limited for the first half of the day as widespread cloud cover is slow to dissipate this morning. Increasing southerly winds within the boundary layer should be strong enough to break the inversion, leading to sufficient heating/instability this afternoon. Given dew points in the lower 70s east of the Blue Ridge, though mid-level lapse rates are meager, there should be at least 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, though mid 80s are possible along/south of I-66 if cloud cover can break earlier in the afternoon. Severe Threat: SPC has added a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for most areas along/east of I-81 and north of I-64. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, and a tornado or two is also possible. Saturated soundings, with a deep warm cloud layer and modestly steep low-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) favor wet microbursts in any organized line segments/clusters of storms. The tornado threat is evident in the favorably curved low-level hodographs in the model soundings, though it is limited by weaker shear and lower instability.
  17. yoda
    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-506-526-527-051615- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0015.240605T1600Z-240606T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Clinton, Annandale, Manassas, Rockville, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Dale City, Centreville, Chantilly, Silver Spring, Washington, Ashburn, Arnold, Annapolis, Falls Church, Arlington, College Park, McLean, Lake Ridge, Camp Springs, Reston, Odenton, Germantown, Severn, Franconia, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Montclair, Baltimore, Bowie, Columbia, Herndon, Ellicott City, Sterling, Laurel, Suitland-Silver Hill, Bethesda, Alexandria, Damascus, Haymarket, South Gate, Lisbon, Woodbridge, and Greenbelt 404 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...District of Columbia, in Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore, and in northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax and Northwest Prince William. * WHEN...From noon EDT today through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move across the area today into this evening. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, with isolated amounts of 3 to 4 inches possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information
  18. yoda
    Well that's a surprise to see on the new Day 1... MRGL yes (good call @high risk) but a chance of a tornado or 2?
  19. yoda
    Sorry Orioles fans https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/john-means-tyler-wells-to-undergo-ucl-surgery.html
  20. yoda
    And nice MCSs
  21. yoda
    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 202 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VAZ503-WVZ505-310215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.240531T0600Z-240531T1200Z/ Western Highland-Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Riverton and Hightown 202 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
  22. yoda
    PBZ (Pittsburgh) and RLX (Charleston WV) issued frost advisories for tonight in their mountainous zones
  23. yoda
    SPC did make a mention in its Day 4-8 OTLK as @high risk described above in his post Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024
  24. yoda
    LWX updated AFD seems to think between 2pm and 10pm l Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1015 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight. In the wake of the front, high pressure will gradually build in from the Great Lakes through Saturday, before retreating offshore early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KLWX radar loop as of 945AM shows showers tracking east along the Alleghenies towards the Blue Ridge. To the west of the area, additional rain showers can be seen over West Virginia and approaching the western portions of the forecast area. Looking at visible satellite, cloud cover is increasing as cumulus clouds develop west of the Blue Ridge. Sunny skies can be seen along and east of the Blue Ridge, but cloud cover is expected to increase in these areas late this morning into the early afternoon. 12Z CAMs are indicating a more organized line of showers and thunderstorms, moving through the area from 2PM to 10PM, with slightly more favorable conditions. CAPE values nearing and exceeding 500J/kg and 30-40 knots of shear are not overly favorable, but are slightly increased from overnight. Will continue to monitor as the previous forecast package remains on track with late morning to afternoon convection
  25. yoda
    Verified for a severe thunderstorm watch if there had been one with 6 damage reports so far... naso much the tornado watch
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