yoda

40/10 tor probs 70/20 wind 80 probs of 6 or more reports of severe

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1252 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... West central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 1250 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Uniontown to near Belington, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. This line of thunderstorms has a history of producing damaging winds. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Beechwood, Redhouse, Bittinger, Hutton, Gorman, Oakland, Jennings, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Crellin, Swallow Falls State Park, Deer Park, McHenry, Big Run State Park, Friendsville, Piney Grove, McComas Beach, Kitzmiller, Merrill, Mountain Lake Park, and Emoryville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Damaging wind and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for western Maryland...and eastern West Virginia.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maryland Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of State College PA to 10 miles west southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Tornado Watch up E WV/ W MD/ i81 corridor in VA until 7pm @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe @high risk

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends.

5% tor line moved eastward 50 to 60 miles on 1630z OTLK... now includes DC metro and all of C MD 15% wind and SLGT risk also moved in that direction

Hmmm... Palmyra cell looks interesting

And the line in WV that goes all the way down to the S WV/VA border that's severe warned?

Mesoscale Discussion 0228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...West Virginia...far western Maryland...western and central Pennsylvania...and far southwestern New York. Concerning...Tornado Watch 53... Valid 161608Z - 161745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remains through mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has now developed along the pre-frontal trough across West Virginia and eastern Ohio/southwest Pennsylvania. This line of storms is already starting to accelerate northeast. Visible satellite continues to show cloud breaks ahead of these storms which should allow for some destabilization immediately ahead of these storms. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain the primary threat. These storms may reach the eastern edge of tornado watch 53 within the next 60 to 90 minutes. An additional watch may be needed soon across portions of central Pennsylvania and perhaps into southern New York. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

Sounds like a Tornado Watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0228.html

ENH just appeared on 1300z SPC OTLK for W MD and W PA

New Day 1 shifted the SLGT risk N and W a large amount

Sarcasm has never been my strong suit... but I've said for years my teams are: Rangers in MLB (used to be the Senators before they moved to Texas, my dad's team) Penguins in NHL before Crosby/Ovechkin came into the league. I loved Mario Bullets aka Wizards NBA Commanders in the NFL George Mason in NCAA Basketball (graduated in 2009 from there)

Never did. Grew up in Springfield VA.

Lol 5 Stanley Cups

00z NAM Nest sim radar looks really nice after about 20z

00z NAM Nest also showing some UD Helicity swaths across the region between 00z and 03z FWIW

@Kmlwx looks like both 00z NAM and 00z NAM NEST ramped up the sig tor probs

Lol Maryland

80/60 tor, 90/70 wind URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 47 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward across middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Widespread damaging winds up to 60-75 mph are expected along with several tornadoes as the environment becomes increasingly favorable for severe thunderstorms. A couple strong to intense tornadoes also appear posssible with any embedded supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of Nashville TN to 85 miles south southwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

Another one Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 1255 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 MSC065-077-091-151845- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-250315T1845Z/ Marion MS-Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS- 1255 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ...Southeastern Lawrence and Northwest Marion County. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES... At 1253 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Salem, or 19 miles east of Mccomb, moving northeast at 45 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Southeastern Lawrence and Northwest Marion County. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Tilton and Holly Springs around 100 PM CDT. Oak Vale and Morgantown around 105 PM CDT. Goss, Arm, and Society Hill around 110 PM CDT. Progress around 115 PM CDT. Prentiss and Carson around 120 PM CDT. Bassfield around 125 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 MSC147-151830- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-250315T1830Z/ Walthall MS- 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR RURAL NORTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTY... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY... At 1253 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Salem, or 17 miles west of Columbia, moving northeast at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for rural northeastern Walthall county. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Salem. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1233 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 MSC113-147-151800- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250315T1800Z/ Walthall MS-Pike MS- 1233 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES... At 1233 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Mount Herman, or 15 miles southeast of Mccomb, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Tylertown around 1240 PM CDT.

Mesoscale Discussion 0203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151730Z - 151830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes will be the main concerns. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually progressing toward Middle TN from the west as semi-discrete storms attempt to approach from northeast MS. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints continue to advect northward, supporting gradual destabilization. MLCAPE may exceed 500 J/kg, and when considering the strong low-level shear in place (e.g. large, clockwise-curved hodographs with 500+ m2/s2 effective SRH per recent HTX and OHX VADs), QLCS circulations may develop and support a tornado threat. Any preceding supercells that can advance into middle TN in the aforementioned shear environment will have the best chance at producing tornadoes. Furthermore, severe wind gusts may also accompany the approaching QLCS. As such, a Tornado Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

Tornado Watch coming shortly for Middle Tennessee