yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Ah okay... just didn't see it on their Twitter page... so should be out in like 20 minutes?
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Did they do a SPEC?
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So is Wiz heading west tomorrow morning?
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It was way back in Licking County OH -- but there were power outages, trees down, and roofs damaged -- dunno if that will even affect us though
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SPC new 1730 DAY 2 likes PA into NY into New England
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Interesting... tor probs are 20/20... unexpected IMO Winds are 90/60
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Looks like all of LWX CWA is included in the watch
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and central Maryland Southeast Ohio Southern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Northern and central West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will quickly evolve into a squall line that should progress east then southeast across the central Appalachians towards Chesapeake Bay. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with a brief tornado or two possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles northwest of Parkersburg WV to 20 miles south southeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
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They said they will at 2000 if even greater damaging wind becomes evident... and I just tweeted Ian about it
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Potential exists for a derecho with widespread damaging winds across parts of the Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into early evening. A broad swath of scattered severe storms producing large hail and damaging wind is expected from the southern Great Plains across the Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest late afternoon and evening. ...Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States... A pair of elevated MCSs are ongoing along the OH/PA border and west-central OH. Robust diabatic heating is occurring to the south and east of the composite outflow/front to a persistent stratus deck over the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of PA to northeast VA. The northeast extent of a massive EML plume will contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amid low to mid 60s surface dew points. On the southern periphery of enhanced mid-level westerlies, an increasingly organized line with embedded bows may develop. This will probably move east, before tending to evolve southeast after crossing the Appalachians this afternoon. Although CAM simulations vary markedly across the region, potential exists for a derecho with widespread damaging winds and have increased probabilities accordingly. An upgrade to Moderate risk may occur if even greater damaging wind coverage becomes evident with the 20Z outlook. The MCS should eventually weaken in southeast VA as it becomes increasingly divorced from stronger deep-layer shear.
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Thats the 1630 OTLK
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HOLY SH*T 1630 OTLK
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It is... GOES shows it going bye bye
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Wouldn't be surprised to see a 45% wind contour added on 1630z or 2000z for parts of the ENH region based off of some MCD posted above
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0408.html Mesoscale Discussion 0408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018 Areas affected...southeast OH...southwest PA...central/northern WV...western MD...and northwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 141556Z - 141700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and accelerate east/southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging winds. Some risk will also exist for a tornado or two and isolated large hail will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued prior to 17Z. DISCUSSION...Regional composite radar imagery shows an area of thunderstorms in progress at 1555Z along the PA/OH border, with more isolated development farther west into central OH. These storms are just north of a quasi-stationary composite surface front that extends east-west through central IN/OH and then southeast across eastern VA. Continued diurnal heating of a moist airmass (surface dew points mid-upper 60s) will combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to result in moderate/strong surface-based instability this afternoon. Moderately strong westerly mid-level flow will contribute to deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts across the area. Current expectations are for the cluster of storms to become increasingly organized over the next few hours as updrafts are able to tap increasing boundary layer instability, and possibly merge with storms developing farther west along the front. A forward-propagating linear convective system is expected to develop and moving southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging winds. Some risk for a QLCS tornado will also exist, and the stronger updrafts will also be capable of isolated severe hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to 17Z based on this expected scenario. ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/14/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
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Guess we aren't getting one... thats weird
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Yes for tomorrow... thats why I am not as excited as Eskimo Joe is. I like today better
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Ian made a post on Twitter about half an hour ago looking at GOES lol
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Give it an hour or so and we should be clearing nicely IMO... and I'm not liking tomorrow with 0-6km shear looking abysmal of 20-25 kts
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Updated morning AFD from LWX is taking a bit longer than I expected... its not out yet
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14z HRRR continues the beat of having a good MCS complex rolling through the region 21z-23z
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Alrighty then 12z NAM... volatile atmosphere for 00z tonight
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06z HRDPS looks good
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12z NAM at 00z TUES near DCA 12z NAM at 00z TUES near FDK:
