yoda

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 81.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla and for the Bay Islands. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

NHC doesn't seem too enthused about it in the 2AM TWO -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/190524_MIATWOAT.shtml

lol Tom Wilson is trending on Twitter... easy to see why... another dirty hit into the boards

Ovechkin finally played an entire game. Backstrom being out hurts you guys the most I think... guess we'll see what happens in Game 5 on Thursday

Jesus... TS to Cat 4 in 48 hours Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Genevieve's infrared satellite presentation continues to improve in organization, with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast and strong convection occurring in two bands to the southwest and northwest of the center. There has been a dearth of microwave data over the cyclone during the past few hours, so it's difficult to know how the internal structure has changed, but subjective and objective satellite estimates all support raising the intensity to 55 kt. Genevieve's motion has not changed--still west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 16 kt. The cyclone will be moving along the periphery of a strong mid-level ridge which extends from the southwestern United States southeastward into Mexico. This ridge should steer Genevieve toward the west-northwest or northwest for the entire 5-day forecast period, but small variations in the strength and orientation of the ridge will play a role in how close Genevieve gets to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The track models are showing a slight bend to the storm's forecast path in 2-3 days, with the most recent run of the GFS showing a much closer approach to the Baja California peninsula. At this stage, however, that model is a bit of an outlier compared to the other guidance. Still, given the new set of models, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted north and east of the previous track prediction, and it lies very close to the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA model solutions. Some of the intensity guidance for Genevieve is incredible. Due to low shear, very warm water, and high atmospheric moisture, several of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices for the 12-, 24-, and 36-hour forecast periods are between 95 and 100 percent--numbers that suggest there is little doubt that Genevieve will go through a period of significant RI during the next couple of days. RI is explicitly shown in the NHC intensity forecast, which is very near the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble solutions and shows Genevieve peaking as a category 4 hurricane in about 48 hours. Amazingly, the LGEM and COAMPS-TC models are even higher than what is indicated in the official forecast, showing a peak intensity of 125-130 kt. A combination of cooler waters and increasing shear (especially at the end of the forecast period) is expected to cause weakening on days 3 through 5. Large swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico today and will spread northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.3N 101.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.4N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 17.4N 108.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 20.0N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 21.3N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 25.5N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

00z Euro doesn't do much with the first wave... 2nd wave it develops looking at 850mb vorticity but then seems to lose it for a while as it heads just north of DR/Haiti and Cuba... then gets its act together again... looks like once it gets into the Eastern GOM it decides to reappear and strengthen... interesting run

Terrifying in its overdone as usual... CMC is a crap tropical model And really? You expect the 2nd tropical system to ride over all of Cuba and deepen? Come on...

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=DEVC1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 Ah, a nice balmy 107 at 9am

So much fun to watch that OT goal... Caps are done. They had that one great season where they won it all in 2018... but they go nowhere in the playoffs basically in other years. And yes... I know the Penguins didn't even make the playoffs this year... and the Islanders swept the Penguins last postseason. But at least we have 3 Cups with Crosby and the such

2 AM TWO has double lemons Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located just over a hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 1. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg

00z EURO has signs of SLP... two of them in the MDR... but ends up doing next to nothing with them and keeps them very weak (>1008mb)

CMC is down in Nicaragua and Honduras... and nothing shows up behind it in the MDR. GFS is a TS into the Yucatan and hurricane into Southern Mexico... also with no real tropical systems behind it in the MDR

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Reno NV 327 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 CAC035-152232- /O.EXP.KREV.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200815T2230Z/ Lassen CA- 327 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LASSEN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM PDT... The tornadic pyrocumulonimbus from the Loyalton Wildfire which prompted the warning has weakened. However, extreme fire behavior is likely to continue into early evening with additional fire tornadoes and strong outflow winds in excess of 60 mph possible. Continue to follow evacuation orders from your local authorities. Do not go into this area!

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Reno NV 253 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 CAC035-152230- /O.CON.KREV.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200815T2230Z/ Lassen CA- 253 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM PDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LASSEN COUNTY... At 250 PM PDT, a pyrocumulonimbus from the Loyalton Wildfire is capable of producing a fire induced tornado and outflow winds in excess of 60 mph was located south of Chilcoot near and to the east of the fire. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Extreme fire behavior with strong outflow winds capable of downing trees and starting new fires. This is an extremely dangerous situation for fire fighters. This tornadic pyrocumulonimbus will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lassen County in the vicinity of the fire. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Follow any evacuation orders from your local authorities. Do not go into this area! Life-threatening situation!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Reno NV 235 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Lassen County in northern California... * Until 330 PM PDT. * At 228 PM PDT, a pyrocumulonimbus from the Loyalton Wildfire is capable of producing a fire induced tornado and outflow winds in excess of 60 mph was located south of Chilcoot, and is nearly stationary. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Extreme fire behavior with strong outflow winds capable of downing trees and starting new fires. This is and extremely dangerous situation for fire fighters. * This tornadic pyrocumulonimbus will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lassen County in the vicinity of the fire. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3975 12012 3972 12007 3970 12014 3971 12015 3973 12015 TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 240DEG 0KT 3972 12013 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN

lol using the ICON for tropical systems

Fringed

Lot of weak TS in there

Western NC into the Piedmont getting crushed with rain... especially near Hickory Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 326 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 NCC003-023-027-035-151015- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200815T1015Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Alexander NC-Burke NC-Caldwell NC-Catawba NC- 326 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FALLING CREEK AND SNOW CREEK IN HICKORY... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER, CATAWBA, SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES... At 326 AM EDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing with swift water rescues occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Falling Creek and Snow Creek in Hickory. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview, Granite Falls, Bethlehem, Maiden, Icard, Hildebran, Claremont, Rhodhiss, Catawba, Mountain View, Hickory Regional Airport, Lake Hickory, Lake Rhodhiss, South Mountains State Park, Startown and Propst. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. && LAT...LON 3557 8163 3583 8139 3584 8113 3574 8131 3571 8126 3570 8120 3572 8109 3555 8106 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

Hope we will see some type of this again soon...

Yes please on Sunday after the Saturday washout (from this mornings AFD from LWX):