yoda

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1393.html

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 450 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Sussex County in southern Delaware... * Until 515 AM EDT. * At 449 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Millville, or 15 miles east of Georgetown, moving north at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Henlopen Acres and Long Neck.

And 94L is gone pretty much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located inland over southeastern North Carolina. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Berg

Surprised @weatherwiz isn't taking the 05z HRRR into the back room for some... fun...

Pero tengo malas noticias para ustedes, tipos.

The trolls have arrived and ready to storm cancel before it starts lol

Carlson not playing makes me wonder though... is he just taking the game off for "rest" since the games don't really count for much... or is the supposed injury more serious?

NHC disagreed on the 2AM TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the associated shower activity is not well organized. However, environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system during the next several days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Let's see if Holtby can bring home the bacon again in the playoffs for you all... otherwise Copley in net

so... @weatherwiz is headed to N NY?

Never playoff hockey without a Crosby goal

Confirmed TOG

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 21.6W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 21.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

And... bye Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed is kept 30 kt based on persistence. It seems like the chance for the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass. Thus weakening is forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low later today. The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS model. All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36 hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.8N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Since Day 2 (Sunday) looks meh... here's Day 3 (Monday)

FWIW, MRGL risk for Sunday and Monday as well from SPC

Seems Josephine may not be far behind actually even if TD 10 dissipates tomorrow Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located near the central Bahamas, and on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a few disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward, and then northward over the western Atlantic north of the Leeward Islands through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Blake

new day 1 graphic with disco... 2/5/15

Sounds like no to being named Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time, indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt, also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between 25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since 00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.1N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Josephine

And will be gone by tomorrow night lol

@weatherwiz does not like MRGL risk

Everyone should read this and take the survey... important to do so IMO https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/

@Chris78 @nj2va @nw baltimore wx https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/07/ilya-samsonov-out-for-the-postseason.html?fv-home=true&post-id=121791 Samsonov done for the year... Holtby now up lol... Copley as backup?

Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen