yoda

Now we wait for what comes out of WV towards us in teh next few hours for those of us DC south

I'd watch just NW of Arlington... looks like a small hook up there

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 524 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 DCC001-MDC003-033-032215- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0439.000000T0000Z-200903T2215Z/ District of Columbia DC-Anne Arundel MD-Prince Georges MD- 524 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...ANNE ARUNDEL AND NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES... At 524 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Laurel to Greenbelt to Fort Totten, moving east at 30 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...Widespread damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Bowie, Severn, Annapolis, College Park, Crofton, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Forestville, Largo, Bladensburg, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Naval Academy, Gibson Island, Sillery Bay, Fedex Field, Magothy River and Pinehurst. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for District of Columbia...and central Maryland. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms will likely produce widespread wind damage across College Park, Greenbelt and Beltsville. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3896 7645 3877 7650 3891 7701 3901 7698 3911 7690 3911 7685 3910 7684 3911 7682 3912 7641 3906 7642 3901 7636 TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 281DEG 26KT 3911 7683 3899 7687 3895 7702 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...80MPH

Storms in PG/DC warned for up to 80mph gusts

ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 516 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The northeastern District of Columbia... Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 516 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Laurel to College Park to Friendship Village, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bowie, Severn, Annapolis, College Park, Crofton, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Forestville, Largo, Bladensburg, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Naval Academy, Gibson Island, Sillery Bay, Fedex Field, Magothy River and Pinehurst.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 505 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Southern Harford County in northern Maryland... Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 505 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Baltimore, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hampton around 515 PM EDT. Baltimore and Parkville around 520 PM EDT. Carney around 525 PM EDT. Perry Hall, Rosedale and Rossville around 530 PM EDT. Middle River, Back River, Dundalk, Essex and White Marsh around 535 PM EDT. Bowleys Quarters around 545 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Nottingham, Fullerton, Ruxton, Lutherville, Riderwood, Eudowood, Chase, Bradshaw, Brooklandville and Eastpoint.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 510 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 510 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Kemp Mill, or near Langley Park, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Adelphi around 515 PM EDT. College Park and Greenbelt around 520 PM EDT. Beltsville and New Carrollton around 525 PM EDT. Lanham-Seabrook and Goddard around 530 PM EDT. Mitchellville and Woodmore around 535 PM EDT. Bowie around 540 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Berwyn Heights, Four Corners, Glenn Dale, Calverton, Wheaton and Silver Spring.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 DCC001-MDC027-031-033-VAC059-032130- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0438.000000T0000Z-200903T2130Z/ District of Columbia DC-Howard MD-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD- Fairfax VA- 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTH CENTRAL HOWARD... SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES AND NORTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTIES... At 459 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing measured wind gusts to near 60 mph was located over Aspen Hill, or near Rockville, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Columbia, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Reston, Olney, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Bladensburg, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten, University of Maryland, Howard University, Aspen Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Montgomery Village and North Potomac.

Wait and see PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 457 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0445 PM TSTM WND GST 1 ENE WASHINGTON GROVE 39.14N 77.16W 09/03/2020 M58 MPH MONTGOMERY MD MESONET && EVENT NUMBER LWX2002367

ETA: @losetoa6 added it was the 20z run after I quoted these 2 posts FYI

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 443 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Howard County in central Maryland... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... North central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 443 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over North Potomac, or over Gaithersburg, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Redland around 450 PM EDT. Olney, North Bethesda, North Kensington, South Kensington and Rossmoor around 455 PM EDT. Aspen Hill, White Oak, Kemp Mill, Forest Glen and Wheaton-Glenmont around 500 PM EDT. Fairland, Adelphi, Colesville and Hillandale around 505 PM EDT. College Park, Greenbelt and Beltsville around 510 PM EDT. Laurel and Savage-guilford around 515 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fulton, Garrett Park, Derwood, Spencerville, Cloverly, Calverton, Washington Grove, Ednor, Ashton and Scaggsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 436 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northeastern Howard County in central Maryland... Southwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 436 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Randallstown, or near Historic Ellicott City, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Ellicott City and Randallstown around 440 PM EDT. Catonsville, Owings Mills and Milford Mill around 450 PM EDT. Lochearn around 455 PM EDT. Pikesville, Towson and Woodlawn around 500 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Garrison, Mcdonogh, Ruxton, Daniels, Marriottsville, Woodstock, Granite and Riderwood.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 436 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The northern District of Columbia... South central Howard County in central Maryland... Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 436 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lowes Island, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...65 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Columbia, Germantown, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Reston, Olney, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Lowes Island, Bladensburg, Poolesville, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten, University of Maryland, Howard University, Aspen Hill and Potomac. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for District of Columbia...central Maryland...and northern Virginia. Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. && LAT...LON 3900 7743 3920 7738 3925 7691 3889 7690 TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 267DEG 24KT 3911 7733 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH

Tornado warning Carroll/Howard/Frederick in MD till 415pm

60/20 tor probs 70/30 wind probs

Hail to 1 inch and isolated significant gusts to 75mph

Mesoscale Discussion 1673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 031906Z - 032100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed this afternoon as a damaging wind and tornado threat increases. DISCUSSION...A broad area of shower activity extends from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and New York amid a belt of strong mid-level flow. Areas south and east of this activity have slowly destabilized through the day with temperatures now in the upper 80s to low 90s in northern Virginia, eastern Maryland, and Delaware. In addition, the boundary layer is very moist with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This has yielded moderate MLCAPE ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg across the region despite very weak mid-level lapse rates (5 C/km per 18Z IAD RAOB). Expect at least a few strong storms to develop in the eastern periphery of the cloud shield in the next 1-2 hours as destabilization continues and deep-layer ascent increases ahead of a shortwave moving out of West Virginia. Once storms develop, they will likely become supercellular, at least initially, given 40-45 kts of effective shear (per KLWX VWP and 18Z IAD RAOB). 18Z IAD RAOB showed relatively weak flow in the lowest 1.5 km, but upstream VWP from KRLX shows strong (40 kt) flow at 1km. Once this overspreads northern Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania in a few hours, the damaging wind threat will increase and low-level shear will increase which should increase the tornado threat. The best tornado threat will likely be across northern Virginia, southern Maryland, and far southern Pennsylvania where there has been less mixing and surface winds remain southerly or south-southeasterly. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two as storm coverage/intensity increases. ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/03/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

MCD issued... tornado watch likely... 95 percent

Kind of surprised no MCD yet from SPC

Ugh it's hot and humid out... we better get some storms this afternoon

On your marks... Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Nana, approaching the coast of Belize, and on Tropical Depression Omar, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda. 1. A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to interact with a tropical wave approaching from the east over the weekend, and it is unclear if the interaction will enhance or inhibit development of this system while it meanders over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is likely to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form from the wave, and some development of this low will be possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg

I wouldn't say busted looking at the reports https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601

New day 1 is out.... 0600 OTLK is ENH risk with 10 TOR/5 HAIL/30 WIND

June 4th and June 10th and June 16th 2008 were MOD risks... but for wind down here

I believe this is the last event that had hatched tor probs in the LWX CWA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20160224