yoda

Just a reminder, both 06z and 18z ICON only go out to 120

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential continues for possibly significant winter storm this weekend, followed by extremely cold conditions next week. A potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some upslope snow showers are possible with each front. Extremely cold temperatures are becoming likely Sunday night into next week, with lows in the single digits and wind chills at or below zero. Near- record low temperatures are possible. The latest 12Z guidance today continues to show the possibility of a significant winter storm across our area this weekend. One noted trend is that precip onset is a bit later, with the heaviest precip over the area now occurring Saturday night through sometime Sunday afternoon. Additionally, the probabilities for freezing rain have dropped to almost zero, mainly due to the strong Arctic high to the north ushering in very cold temps at the surface and aloft. As a result, the NBM 48-hour probability for at least 6 inches of snow are at 40-60pct, and around 20-30pct for 1 foot of snow. One big thing to note is that there could be a sharp QPF gradient on the north side of the system, with that sharp cutoff possibly setting up somewhere over our area. This would result in lower snow totals along the MD/PA border, with increasing totals to the south. The upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Models seem to be in at least good agreement regarding the development of a low pressure system that tracks across the southern U.S. A broad area of baroclinic/frontogenetic forcing will develop along the interaction of the Arctic high to the north and deepening low. Ensemble guidance continues to show an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The surface low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend. Depending on where the frontal zone is and where the area of low pressure tracks, there could be significant wintry precipitation this weekend over a large part of the South to Mid-Atlantic CONUS. The potential is still there for that strong Arctic high pressure to suppress the low pressure system to our south. However, the strengthening upstream blocking pattern could essentially put a floor on how far south the low will track. It is important to monitor this threat closely this week as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs. &&

There's one near me too in Fairfax I believe... and Tysons and Crystal City

You may see its in the teens in RIC and ask how sleet? Huge warm nose at 700mb

Hmmm... mixy in RIC at 132...

Oh

I'd definitely try this time lol.

Have Randy start it

Its decent... but better for C VA and S VA at 138

Well at least we have to start a Part 2 of the January long range thread?

Um... no thanks... h/t @snowchill in the Richmond thread. I'll take the snow of course... but not this lol

Or maybe they are trying to cover in case what happened this morning happens again tomorrow?

*shrugs* Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 936 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded further to the south and west to include much of the eastern portions of central Maryland, all of Northeast Maryland including the city of Baltimore, Washington D.C. and the I-95 corridor into southeastern Prince William County in Virginia. A prolonged period from Sunday night through Tuesday night looks to be very cold. Wind chill values remain somewhat unchanged and a little warmer than previously anticipated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary later tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix of rain and snow will transition to all snow. - 2) Very cold conditions are expected over the region Monday night through Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures continuing through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary later tonight and during the day Sunday. A mix rain and snow will transition to all snow. A front bisecting the region will be the focal zone of an area of low pressure that will develop along it and move toward the east as the front slides to the south and east. Many locations will be in the middle to upper 30s in the areas that are expected to encounter accumulating snow late tonight and Sunday. As we approach daybreak Sunday morning, these temperatures will slowly drop a degree every hour or two to reach close to or below the freezing mark as precipitation begins. A mix of rain and snow could start between 4am and 6am in eastern Maryland and eastern Virginia, before the atmosphere cools down evenmore with falling precipitation. Thus, the cold atmosphere will support accumulating snowfall through much of the day Sunday. East of I-95, more precipitation is expected, but temperatures may be slightly above freezing for a large part of the event, and precipitation may even be rain for a while. The best potential for cold air and higher precipitation totals to overlap appears to be central and northeastern Maryland, northeastern Virginia. The model trend has been bringing snowfall farther to the northwest; thus, resulting in the potential for accumulating snowfall of 1 to 3 inches instead of a dusting to near an inch. The Winter Weather Advisory previous issued has been expanded to the west, southwest and south. Much of central Maryland, far northeast Virginia, Baltimore and Washington DC has been included. End time for the precipitation could be pretty early in the day closer to and west of the Blue Ridge. How long the precipitation lasts closer to the Chesapeake Bay will depend on the western extent of the second frontal wave. In any event, dry conditions look likely by mid Sunday evening. Temperatures from the mid teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday night, so any residual moisture or slush could refreeze.

I mean i like it... but i cant see more than an inch here. I hope to be surprised

This is the part from the afternoon AFD regarding the event s the front moves eastward, mid and upper level dynamics will assist precipitation developing along and behind the boundary. Low pressure will develop along the frontal zone along the coast and ride northeastward through the day. This will be a tricky scenario as snow will be highly dependent on colder air catching up to the moisture, which is sometimes difficult to achieve and offset by dry advection. Temperatures will be colder sooner west of I-95, but these areas will likely see a shorter duration of precipitation. East of I-95, more precipitation is expected, but temperatures may be slightly above freezing for a large part of the event, and precipitation may even be rain for a while. The best potential for cold air and higher precipitation totals to overlap appears to be northeastern Maryland. Thus, confidence was high enough to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this area with the greatest potential for 2 inches of snow. However, if the afternoon wave of precipitation associated with the low misses to the south and east (which some models show), totals may fall short. Most other areas will see a slushy coating to an inch, perhaps locally higher where any banding sets up. Rates will be important to any sort of accumulations, especially as the day wears on, given marginal surface temperatures. Will have to monitor for possible expansions to the advisory, especially if confidence increases a colder solution near and east of the I-95 corridor. End time for the precipitation could be pretty early in the day closer to and west of the Blue Ridge. How long the precipitation lasts closer to the Chesapeake Bay will depend on the western extent of the second frontal wave. In any event, dry conditions look likely by mid Sunday evening. Temperatures from the mid teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday night, so any residual moisture or slush could refreeze.

I am surprised for sure. My expectations are for less than an inch

Should be an interesting AFD read in a few

Lol 18z NAM and 3km NAM went NW that C MD now gets the snow

Thats it for now URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 213 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 MDZ008-507-508-180315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0005.260118T0900Z-260118T2300Z/ Cecil-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 213 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Cecil and Harford Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow, possibly mixed with rain for a few hours, will spread into the area early Sunday morning. There may be some breaks in the snow during the midday hours before additional snow falls in the afternoon. Visibility may drop to one half mile at times in moderate snow. The snow should end during the late afternoon or early evening.

Good luck all... hope you get smoked

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 MDZ021>025-180300- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.260118T1500Z-260119T0300Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. * WHERE...Dorchester, Inland Worcester, the Maryland Beaches, Somerset, and Wicomico Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The advisory may need to be expanded southward with future updates if the snow forecast continues to trend upward.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 VAZ064-075>078-521-522-180300- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.260118T1500Z-260119T0000Z/ Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The advisory may need to be expanded southward with future updates if the snow forecast continues to trend upward.

Wakefield issuing WWAs

Gaithersburg had 0.4" at 900am... 3 SSW Damascus 1.0" per CO-OP around same time