yoda

If I'm guessing the scale right... pink is 0.5"+

Sort of falls apart after... but still some snow

426am AFD from LWX A relative lull is expected Saturday late afternoon and evening as the initial Arctic front pushes to the east and a wave of surface low pressure goes with it, at least outside of the mountains, where snow looks to continue. A second wave of low pressure will take shape over the TN Valley, which will become our Sunday winter storm. Precipitation chances continue to increase on Sunday with guidance trending towards a snowier solution areawide. At least a light accumulating snowfall is becoming increasingly likely across most of the forecast area as a fast-moving, yet potent, low pressure system slides by to our south. The arctic front Saturday will have ushered in sub-freezing air to much of the region by the time of precipitation onset. There may be some thermal issues towards southern MD and the VA Piedmont, but for the most part, looks like an all snow event for many. Initial forecast amounts are in the 1 to 3 inch range in those areas where thermal issues may exist at the onset, with 3 to 4 inches seems most likely along and north of I-66/US-50. The upslope areas will of course see substantially more, and over a bit of a longer timeframe. For most, this system will be very quick-moving, lasting around 6 to 12 hours or so.

Will folks want to pay attention?

I guess I wasn't thinking when i posted that I liked hr 69 on the 18z GFS

I like the look at 69

18z ICON was going to be even more suppressed lol.

18z ICON did make a noticeable shift NW though in its QPF field compared to 12z

RGEM steadfast though... unfortunately you have to be NW of i81 corridor

Better west of BR

Road trip?

Well if you call 6" for DC metro scraping lol... but I get where you are going

It has a 1005mb SLP SE of HSE at 144

Was 30 to 50 percent on the 4am SPS... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1110 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506-526- 527-170200- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 1110 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE MD / WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS THIS EVENING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for this evening`s commute. Scattered to numerous snow showers are anticipated (a 60 to 70 percent chance) this evening across the Baltimore MD / Washington DC metro areas with up to a half inch accumulation possible on area roads and walkways. If this threat does materialize during the evening rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting this evening, be aware of the possibility of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

When is anyone amused by it? It's old and childish

He didn't mention it had to hit us. He just said a storm

Ah yes, WC of -35... toasty Beyond Sunday, the main story will be the cold. At the surface, a 1050+ hPa high will form to the east of the Canadian Rockies, then track southward along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, eventually reaching the Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley as a 1040+ hPa high by Tuesday night into Wednesday. An area of low pressure will simultaneously deepen and stall out to the east of Hudson Bay during that time. Such a configuration will enable a pure Arctic airmass to be drawn directly southward out of Northern Canada into the eastern two-thirds of the United States. Strong cold advection will ensue locally behind Sunday`s system, with temperatures crashing Sunday night into Monday, and remaining brutally cold through Tuesday and Wednesday. All signs point to this being the coldest three day stretch of weather in 5 years. Using Dulles as a proxy for the area, similar average temperatures to what are being forecast with the upcoming event last occurred 1/30-2/1 2019, and 1/5-7/2018. Daytime temperatures are forecast to hold in the teens and lower 20s for most on Monday, with single digits above/below zero in the mountains. Winds will gust to around 20-35 mph through much of the day, making wind chills -15 to -35 in the mountains, and -5 to 15 at lower elevations. Air temperatures will drop back to below zero roughly west of I-81 Monday night, with single digits above zero further east. Wind chills should reach below zero in nearly all locations Monday night, with central Virginia potentially being the lone exception. Slightly lower daytime temperatures and slightly lesser winds will result in similar wind chills during the daylight hours again on Tuesday (-15 to -35 in the mountains, -5 to 15 at lower elevations). Temperatures will once again drop into the single digits above/below zero Tuesday night. Some very slight warming is expected by Wednesday, with temperatures forecast to reach into the teens and lower to middle 20s. Winds will also be a bit lighter, enabling wind chills to make it into the single digits above/below zero at higher elevations, and teens at lower elevations. Cold Weather headlines will likely be needed at times Sunday night through Tuesday night.

LWX AFD from this morning... mentions the ICON again LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep and broad longwave troughing will span across nearly the entire width of the CONUS by Sunday morning, with high amplitude ridging on either side across the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic. Locally, we`ll be situated within southwesterly flow aloft on the front side of the trough. A low amplitude shortwave will progress through the base of the trough and rapidly approach the area from the southwest during the day on Sunday. Model guidance is still showing a large amount of spread with respect to the handling of this disturbance. Amongst deterministic guidance, some models (the Euro, ICON, and UKMET) show a light snowfall event occurring on Sunday as this disturbance moves overhead, others (the Canadian) show a more amplified system with both ice and snow across the area, while others yet (the GFS) show no precipitation across the majority of the area. Such spread is also evident in ensemble modeling systems such as the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. Probabilistically, a lighter snowfall event is the slightly favored solution, with a little over half the ensemble members showing a light snowfall event. There are a fair number of ensemble members that also show no precipitation to the east of the mountains. The heavier precipitation scenario with mixing (as advertised by the deterministic Canadian) appears to be a bit of an outlier solution within the probability space at this juncture. Any precipitation that occurs with this system should wind down Sunday evening, with dry conditions to the east of the mountains for Sunday night. Upslope snow showers will linger in the Alleghenies through Sunday night, and potentially even Monday morning.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 419 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506-526- 527-161530- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 419 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for this afternoon and evening commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 to 50 percent chance) this afternoon and evening across the Baltimore and Washington metro areas with up to a half inch of accumulation on area roads. If this threat does materialize this afternoon and evening rush- hour, many roads could quickly turn snow covered. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions on untreated surfaces. If commuting this afternoon and evening, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

But you lost so much snow

Is doing something big at 228

6-12 with Kuchera for most