yoda

Oh... that looks GFSesque

00z UKIE is acceptable

00z CMC joins

7" and mid teens for DC metro on Wednesday from 00z CMC

HOLD IT! TAKE THAT! (00z GFS to 00z RGEM)

Close up

00z 3km NAM QPF/10:1 snow/Kuchera snow

See a lot of 0.4" area wide at 48 with snow still falling

Just like Ovechkin may be the same as Lamar and the Capitals the same as the Ravens, I don't want to see then win a Cup (again, sigh).

It'll be hilarious when the Ravens and MVP Lamar of the regular season lose again in the postseason

18z 12z

FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP

Anybody going to be at the Pens/Caps game tomorrow? I believe I missed seeing @H2O last year

Looks like no Flowers again for the Ravens https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/43455125/ravens-not-ruled-our-wr-zay-flowers-knee-vs-bills

Hope I'm reading the model sounding right, but looks like good snow growth and decent DGZ for DC metro on 18z 3k NAM at hr 52?

I'll take the 3k nam please

Afternoon disco from LWX has important note about EURO AI SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An Arctic Front will reside in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday as kind of the middle piece of this leader-follower system. The leader system that impacted the area Saturday will leave the trailing cold front behind, but also bring the cold for the Sunday event. For the follower - the potential snow event across the area Sunday - models historically have issues with these set-ups. This case is no different with considerable differences in model guidance just ~40 hours out from the onset of precipitation. Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley Saturday night. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left exit region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q-vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands across the area as well. It should be noted the differences between global models/ensembles. The CMCE/GEFS are notably more bullish than the EPS. Regional models split differences among themselves. Of note, the AI EURO has been consistent with 0.2-0.4" of QPF across the area for several days. This model tends to overdo the broader field of QPF at further lead times, but this signal is noteworthy based on latest verification research. Given the potential for 5" of snow (6" in the mountains), have coordinated with neighboring offices and WPC in a Winter Storm Watch for climo favored areas. Have concerns about mixing further southeast towards the metros coupled with lower ratios. The current snow forecast will likely change, so please monitor the latest forecast for updates.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-180100- /O.NEW.KLWX.EC.A.0001.250120T0900Z-250123T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland-Western Grant- Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...An extended period of temperatures up to 30 degrees below normal. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero possible. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero are possible for higher elevations. * WHERE...In Maryland, Extreme Western Allegany and Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Periods of dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of well below freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. To prevent water pipes from freezing, wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

Wes would take this run

I'm worried about the Penguins winning

Probably tomorrow morning in the 4am package if there are any

Don't bother with the 12z CMC unless you are in W MD

Ugh, management just texted me saying what's this about snow on Sunday...

Please sir, I want some more

I'd love another WSW storm... but I'm fine with another 2" at the least