yoda

Oh it appears I forgot my card at home... you got it tonight, right? Promise I'll pay you back... sometime lol

First mention of tornado threat in the AFD this afternoon too Showers should continue to overspread the area late this evening into tonight. QPF looks to be fairly light and flooding concerns remain low at this time but nonzero. Will continue to monitor radar trends over the next several hours to account for any possible flooding concerns to arise for later tonight. There continues to be a signal for two quasi-distinct lines of stronger, embedded showers late tonight and into early Friday morning. The initial line, associated with the trough should be entering the area by around midnight from the west and continue to move further east. The second line (likely the cold front) will follow behind that line by an hour or two. There is a possibility for a rumble of thunder for most of the area late tonight and into early Friday morning. If the lines of embedded showers meet with the increased SRH values (400+ 0-1 km) then there may pose a threat for an isolated tornado. Although, the most likely culprit for a SVR/SMW issuance would be for wind damage possibility with these gusty winds present throughout the night. The chances of a quick spin up are non-zero at this time. Ingredients would have to line up timing wise but there could be some disagreement there tonight.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 VAZ036>040-050>052-501-502-171700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0005.220218T0300Z-220218T1100Z/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier- Including the cities of Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Warrenton, and Turnbull 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Nelson, Albemarle, Greene, Madison, Rappahannock, Orange, Culpeper, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Northern Fauquier and Southern Fauquier Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506- WVZ051>053-171700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0005.220218T0300Z-220218T1500Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Winds will quickly turn northwest behind a cold front after 3 AM. * WHERE...The Baltimore and Washington Metropolitan areas, northern Virginia, northern and central Maryland, and the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Lets get ready to WIND!!! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 VAZ507-508-171700- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0002.220217T2100Z-220218T1100Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Big Meadows and Wintergreen 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Borrowed this from the SNE forum... h/t @brooklynwx99

Well 00z Euro at 192 definitely makes you look twice with that CAD look

Didn't realize there are quite a good amount of schools 2 hr delay or closed today

Afternoon AFD from LWX... yikes LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure is expected to build into the region behind the previous system and then move offshore. WAA thanks to southerly flow from the offshore high pressure will continue warming up temperatures with highs reaching the upper-50s to mid-60s for most of the area by Thursday. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday, with guidance showing precip moving into most of the area by Thursday afternoon. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is trending slower this cycle, but continue to suggest the potential for heavy rain for our area as well as the threat for severe with a strong wind field (850mb winds in excess of 80kt) and possibly marginal CAPE. The Euro ensemble seems the most aggressive regarding precip, bringing a large swath of >3 sigma PWATS to the CWA. The Canadian ensemble is slightly less so, while the GEFS is the least aggressive. We will continue to monitor the flood and severe threat as the system into focus.

Lol Caps

For Thursday into Friday time period for possible strong to severe from morning LWX AFD. .. yikes at the 100 kts A continued southerly advection of warm and moist air will lead to PWs increasing up into the 1.35 to 1.50 range which is 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal. The frontal passage will be driven by a strong upper level trough that will approach from the plains states. Models aren`t agreeing on the strength and positioning of this trough but all models agree that a strong wind field will be in place with the frontal passage. Models are forecasting 60 knots in the 850 to 925 layer with some models having close to 100 knots aloft. Increasing temperatures and moisture will likely lead to some marginal CAPE values up to 200 to 300 j/kg. Considering that shear values will likely be well above 60 to 70 knots with this frontal passage, even a few hundreds of CAPE could lead to a strong to severe thunderstorm threat. I believe the biggest hazard for our region Thursday into Friday will be flooding as this system will have a lot of moisture associated with it along with increasingly neutral to nearly negatively tilted trough. This suggests that the frontal zone will intensify over our region leading to an enhancement in precipitation production. Somewhere in our region has the potential to see banding precip amounts above 2 inches but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time. I could also see the threat for wind advisory level winds but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time range. High temps as the front pass through the region will likely warm up into the 60s once again with potential for a strong background wind field. The impacts from this system should be focused in the Thursday to Friday period.

We got another one

The answer is nope, never

70 to 80 kts at 850mb

Too bad no CAPE... that's a decent sounding at 132 on the 12z GFS

12z RGEM and 15z RAP look good to me... 12z ggem isn't bad either

Lol widespread 3 to 6 ftw

Caps always suck

Thanks Ji

I'd bet the 06z NAM must have been the same then

Actually looks better than 00z Euro I believe

Morning AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Uncertainty plagues potential snow threat this weekend... After a couple of very mild days in the 50s to perhaps 60s, an Arctic front will cross the region late Saturday. An initial wind shift is expected to cause a change in direction from south to west during the morning, but the brunt of colder air is unlikely to arrive until very late at night east of the mountains. Cold air chasing precipitation behind a front is not normally an ideal setup for heavy snow east of the Appalachians. This is in part due to the drying effects of downsloping, not to mention compressional warming effects of downsloping that tend to delay temperatures dropping east of the higher terrain. Without a strong frontal wave nearby to hold in moisture, prospects for significant snow would be low. However, strong lift in the mid levels near the ideal snow growth zone, and an area of low pressure developing near the Carolina coast could act in tandem to produce a period of accumulating snow late Saturday night into Sunday. Questions remain regarding the strength of the offshore low. Its strength will depend on how the northern and southern branches of the jet stream interact, and just how quickly temperatures drop. A large ridge over the western U.S. is in a favorable position for downstream troughing and low pressure near the East Coast, with some ridging evident near Greenland; the orientation of the latter is not quite in the most ideal spot to hold or "block" a storm`s path keeping it close to the Mid-Atlantic coast. That being said, energy in both branches of the jet stream is rather potent, and if they interact or phase quickly enough, a stronger storm closer to the coast is still possible. This scenario is most evident in some of the GEPS (Canadian Ensemble/CMCE) guidance from the 00z suite, with the GEFS still bullish but somewhat less than its 12z cycle, and the EPS (Euro Ensemble/ECE) flatter, weaker, and drier. A consensus approach (i.e. NBM) to all of the above smooths out the swings from cycle to cycle and differences between individual model camps, resulting in a 40-50% chance of measurable snow across much of the area east of the mountains late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow may mix with rain, especially at the onset. Most likely snowfall amounts are currently projected at less than 2 inches for most areas, but both a low end scenario of little to no snow /and/ a high end scenario of several inches are still on the table. Potential impacts from this system may linger into Sunday. More on that follows in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... To conclude the upcoming weekend, the forecast remains unresolved regarding the threat for wintry precipitation as alluded to above. 00Z guidance and their ensembles paint a mixed picture of how much, if any, snow will occur with the weekend system. The 00Z GFS/GEFS mean have been the most bullish on the snowfall potential given a more favorably placed surface wave and associated mid/upper forcing. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF and its ensemble mean are flatter with little to nothing over the region. Sandwiched in between would be the CMC solution. With forecast highs in the upper 30s, some locations along the I-95 corridor may see rain mixing in with any snowflakes. Given the inherent model spread, much can change in the next 24 to 48 hours, so continue to check back on the latest forecast at weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Just needs to come north 58 miles Have the 06z GFS and 06z NAM meet in the middle

Alrighty then 06z GFS