yoda

There's not enough lulz for this post

MRGL risk of severe on Friday afternoon into Friday night per Day 3 SPC OTLK

00z GFS still drops 2-3 inches across much of VA from CHO to I95 corridor into C MD

Instability is below 500 J/KG... but those are some impressive looking hodos on the 00z NAM for Friday evening into early Saturday

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this afternoon. Deep convection is not very strong near the center of the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance thereafter. Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent, during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, significant strengthening seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. The cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120 hours.

Afternoon AFD from LWX mentions severe weather threat LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term period will begin with remnants of Nicole moving north through our area. Recent guidance is trending quicker than in previous days which would bring rain to the area Friday morning and lasting throughout the day. Heavy rain on Friday could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flooding with PWAT values nearing and greater than 2 inches. The track of remnants of Nicole will determine the amount and location of rainfall. Nevertheless, guidance indicates high probabilities of over an inch of rain and up to 4 inches of rain for the area. While CAPE is limited (less than 150 J/kg), there will be upward to 50 knots of bulk shear over our area Friday afternoon making thunderstorms and severe weather possible.

12z CMC looks like 2 to 3 inches of rain for the majority of the LWX CWA 12z GFS has the heaviest rain a bit further west along the BR... 2 to 4 inches

I made it

Thread been give

None of the 12z models have Nicole reaching hurricane status

Day 10 Euro looks interesting...

5am nhc path has Nicole just to the east of DCA at 1am Saturday

Guess I will be buying some Powerball tickets lol

Fox5 DC winter outlook https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2022-2023-snow-blizzard-dmv-dc-maryland-virginia

FOX5 DC winter outlook https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2022-2023-snow-blizzard-dmv-dc-maryland-virginia

Hurricane Lisa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 420 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 ...LISA MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE... Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Lisa has made landfall along the coast of Belize, near the mouth of the Sibun River, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City around 420 PM CDT (2120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990 mb (29.24 inches). SUMMARY OF 420 PM CDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Explore lololololol

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to 55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite classifications. Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast, but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter. Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon. 2. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.3N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake