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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 0941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Areas affected...Central NC into central/eastern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272026Z - 272230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will be possible with renewed storm development into early evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across parts of central NC into VA, near a weakly confluent surface trough, with a few cells occasionally showing weak midlevel rotation. This trend is expected to continue into early evening, as a midlevel cyclone approaches the region from the west. Increasing midlevel flow and deep-layer shear (as noted on recent VWPs from KFCX and KRAX) will continue to support some potential for organized storms, including the potential for stronger clusters and/or a few marginal supercells. Instability is not particularly strong, but MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg will support some severe potential, with locally damaging wind gusts the most likely threat, though marginally severe hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell into early evening. Watch issuance is possible across this area, depending on short-term observational and guidance trends regarding a sufficiently widespread severe threat. ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
  2. yoda
    can def see the thinning of the clouds and clearing going on https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
  3. yoda
    Hmmmm
  4. yoda
    I guess we will continue to use this thread for 2022?
  5. yoda
    From earlier in Bedford County...
  6. yoda
    @Kmlwx is stuck in mode seeing this
  7. yoda
  8. yoda
  9. yoda
    I know we rag on him some... but even Cappucci is concerned
  10. yoda
    Even tries for some UDH swaths through N VA/DC/C MD between 23z and 01z
  11. yoda
    @Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe check out the sim radar on the 16z HRRR for 23z...
  12. yoda
    Thought it a bit odd as well, guess they could mention it on the 2000z OTLK if the threat manifests itself?
  13. yoda
    I hope he has collision insurance on that
  14. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1231 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 MDC027-031-271640- /O.CAN.KLWX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-220527T1645Z/ Howard MD-Montgomery MD- 1231 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD AND EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED... The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central Maryland. A Tornado Warning still remains in effect for portions of Montgomery and Howard Counties as the circulation observed on radar moved west of the orginal Tornado Warning.
  15. yoda
    Interesting... LWX had to reissue the Tornado Warning for Montgomery and Howard because the circulation went outside their original warning polygon by moving westward
  16. yoda
    short term for supercells
  17. yoda
    1630z OTLK should be an interesting read in a few
  18. yoda
    Tornado Warning for North Central Carroll County
  19. yoda
  20. yoda
    Um yeah... that looks like sups on the 15z HRRR arriving in DC metro at 00z/01z, no?
  21. yoda
    Tornado Warning for Howard and Montgomery counties
  22. yoda
    So far, 15z HRRR is looking really intriguing on the sim radar at 22z...
  23. yoda
    see @MN Transplant post above of the TDR from DCA
  24. yoda
    Yup, SWS says circulation has weakened
  25. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1159 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 1245 PM EDT. * At 1159 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Walkersville to near Ballenger Creek to near Poolesville, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Frederick, Westminster, Damascus, Thurmont, Poolesville, Harry Grove Stadium, Montgomery Village, Eldersburg, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, Taneytown, Walkersville, Braddock Heights, New Market, Green Valley, Clover Hill, Discovery-Spring Garden, Boyds and Linganore-Bartonsville.
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