yoda

Wouldn't mind that look on the 00z EPS out in the future for MCS chances and NW flow event possibilities

Beautiful morning

Kinda surprised to see Day 3 MRGL risk for Sunday

Seems LWX in their afternoon AFD have same idea as you lol... but they do add caveats Behind the weak frontal passage, high pressure is forecast to build over the region as the upper ridge to the west shift eastward toward our region. The weather for the early and middle parts of next week has some uncertainty at this time due to the strength and position of the ridge axis . A strong ridge is forecast to build into parts of our region. Depending on the positioning of the ridge, shortwave energy passing over the ridge and dropping into our region could combine with some modest Shear/instability to produce a potential MCS in the late Monday to Wednesday period. If the ridge shifts overhead, the region will likely remain dry and see an enhanced warming trend. If the ridge is further westward, the region could remain relatively stable but if the ridge is positioned in just right position, we could see shortwave energy pass over the ridge and drop into our region. A combination of a southerly flow at the surface along with a northwest flow aloft could lead to an unstable environment and combine with the lift from the shortwave to bring an organized MCS into our system. We will need to monitor the strength and position of the ridge over the next few days

@Eskimo Joe @George BM @Kmlwx From this mornings AFD... sounds tasty lol Upper-level high pressure will build over the Tennessee Valley and into the Great Lakes Monday through Wednesday while the upper-level trough slides to our north and east, centering itself over the western Atlantic. A northwest flow aloft is expected in between these systems, and a surface boundary will likely remain stalled out over our area during this time. Warmer conditions are expected due to rising heights, but with the northwest flow aloft and the boundary in place, this may trigger some showers and thunderstorms. Details remain uncertain, but the better chance for storms may be Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some decent hail cores showing up on storms moving into DC metro

Flood Watch up now for just about everyone

Well that escalated quickly on the 18z NAM soundings

So Wednesday evening into Wednesday night looks interesting per afternoon LWX AFD The cold front approaching from the west is forecast to pass through our region sometime late Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage and how far south of our region it will sink on Wednesday. Based on current guidance, the front should pass fully through the region during Wednesday morning. The GFS and Euro models have the front stalling just south of our region on Wednesday while the NAM moves the front further southward along the NC/VA border. This difference in location will be a big factor for precipitation during the day on Wednesday. The more southern solution for the NAM, means a strong westerly flow is able to form which will keep most of our region dry during the day while the GFS/Euro solutions would mean our region could see continued chances for showers. Went middle ground with Pops and kept mainly chance/low end likely pops for Wednesday. The big question for Wednesday evening will be how far north the front is able to move as it returns northward. As the front lifts northward, a surface low is forecast to form along the boundary as an upper level shortwave passes overhead. The GFS and Euro are more progressive with the northward propagation of the front while the NAM keeps the boundary overhead of our region Wednesday evening. It seems the differing solutions will mean the difference between an increased SVR threat and increased flood threat. The GFS and Euro would mean a bigger SVR threat due to increased CAPE and shear along the boundary. The NAM solution on the other hand would mean a bigger flood threat. Both the 6z and 12Z NAM are highlighting areas south of I-66 for the potential for rain amounts of 2 to 5 inches in a 12 hour period. We should have a better idea of the overall threat for SVR and flood once Wednesday moves into the range of the high- Res guidance.

Hmmm

@mattie g did you hear what happened at Lake Accotink Park?

So how does this count in the standings? Since it made "landfall" as a PTC, it's technically not a TD or TS

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080616 Left side

Probably won't see hail sizes this large again in a watchbox for our region unless we get some huge EML lol URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Wonder if its last time we had 30% hatched hail over us

Reviewing it... I like how the morning Day 2 was like oh 15% off to our west... afternoon update hatched introduced lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080616

Lol wrong way system Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 The organization of the disturbance over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has continued to deteriorate overnight. Scatterometer data indicated that the system has an elongated region 200 n mi long by 50 n mi wide of light (< 10 kt) winds and no well-defined center. In addition, about 30 kt of west-southwesterly shear and mid-level dry air has stripped all associated deep convection in a more-or-less linear band that extends 150-200 n mi east of the estimated center. In other words, the system has gone the wrong way in becoming a tropical cyclone. The estimated center is located near the northern end of the area of light winds, and maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on recent sustained winds of 29-31 kt measured at several marine sites near the Florida Keys. The disturbance is moving faster toward the northeast (045/16 kt), but this appears less of a continuous motion and more of a re-formation of the center since yesterday afternoon. This behavior is likely to continue through the day as the system makes its way toward and across Florida. After that, the global models suggest that the center may jump or re-form near the east-central coast of Florida this afternoon or this evening and then develop and maintain a more familiar tropical cyclone-like structure as it heads northeastward and east-northeastward over the western Atlantic through Monday. The model trackers do not appear to be handling the jumping of the low pressure or the re-formation of the center, and for this cycle the NHC forecast leans heavily on a blend of the global model fields. Although deep-layer shear is expected to increase further, a shortwave trough moving eastward along the northern Gulf coast appears as though it will interact with the disturbance in about 24 hours and allow the expected newly formed low east of Florida to develop a more well-defined circulation than what we've seen over the past day or two. This trough interaction could also allow the system to intensify slightly over the next few days. However, the global models now suggest that the system could become an extratropical low by day 3, which is now reflected in the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 25.6N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/1800Z 27.1N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 05/0600Z 28.6N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 05/1800Z 30.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 32.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 34.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 34.7N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 37.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 42.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Looking like Tuesday may be next chance of a few severe storms... then maybe Thursday

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has not become better organized since the last advisory. What is passing for the center is an elongated trough extending from the northeastern Yucatan peninsula to near 25N 84W with several embedded vorticity maxima, and the center position for this advisory is a mean position along this trough. The aircraft did not find any tropical-storm-force winds during its mission. However, Doppler wind data from the Key West WSR-88D radar suggests 35-kt winds are occuring in the convective cluster near western Cuba about 150 n mi east of the center. Based on this, the system has not developed the structure of a tropical cyclone and remains a 35-kt potential tropical cyclone. It should be noted that the initial 34-kt wind radii are a little deceiving, as those winds are only occurring over a small area well east of the center. While the initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, it appears to be a little faster toward the northeast at 040/6 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory. The disturbance is now encountering the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that it should move at a faster forward speed toward the northeast during the next 48-72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 48-72 h, the system should move east- northeastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It is still possible that there could be erratic motion due to center re-formation caused by convective bursts. Strong southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to continue until the system reaches the Florida Peninsula. However, it remains likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough organized convection and improved circulation for the system to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little more strengthening is again forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba this afternoon and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba this afternoon and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0600Z 24.4N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/1800Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 33.1N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 35.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

I had fallen asleep around 830... got woke up by this deluge outside

The one by Warrenton probably could use a STW soon imo

Probably already have an overturned airmass... but those two storms out in N Fauquier County are decent

Power back on A ton of wind and hail reports today... SLGT definitely verified and the STWatch did easily as well